Jamie Dimon says market risks are 'bigger than other people think' – and he's not buying stocks right now

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Jamie Dimon is getting more bearish on the stock market.

The CEO of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and one of the most influential voices in finance says he would not buy either stocks or U.S. Treasuries at current prices. More importantly, he said investors are ignoring some significant threats to the market.

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In an extensive conversation with CNBC, Dimon pointed to growing geopolitical tensions around the world, including the U.S.-Iran war and the ongoing war in Ukraine (1).

"I do think those risks are probably bigger than other people think," Dimon said

Investors, seemingly, are downplaying the conflicts and have been for some time.

The Dow and S&P 500 are up nearly 8% year to date and the Nasdaq index has gained about 7% as of July 27. Dimon acknowledged that any concerns about the wars as they stand now may be already baked into the markets. His fear, he said, is some other trigger that has not yet occurred.

"It's possible something's baked in, but what's not baked in is what actually happens," he said.

A looming crisis?

Dimon's warning isn't new.

In May, while speaking at an investment conference in Oslo, Norway, he said, "The way it's going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis and then we'll have to deal with it" (2).

Dimon cited several reasons for that prediction, including geopolitical events, which he expects to increase the cost of oil and other energies, as well as defense production. Higher oil prices stoke inflation. And as government deficits continue to rise, he said, that can make investors in government bonds lose confidence.

Last year, Dimon predicted a coming "crack" in the bond market, saying, "It is going to happen. And I tell this to my regulators, some of you who are in this room, I'm telling you it's going to happen and you're going to panic" (3).

And in an October interview with the BBC, Dimon said he was "far more worried than others" about a serious market correction (4). While he declined to put an precise timeline on his bearish prediction, he said it could come anywhere from six months to two years from now.

"I say the level of uncertainty should be higher in most people's minds than what I would call normal," he said at the time.

In his chat with CNBC, Dimon said that while he might buy an individual stock if it was "a great investment," he wouldn't be a buyer of the general market and would not buy long-dated Treasuries.

Asked about artificial intelligence stocks, Dimon acknowledged the high levels of spending, but did not indicate he felt it was wasteful. He likened this spending to the financial outlay for Internet companies, which eventually evolved into corporate giants, despite some failures along the way.

"The amount of money being spent is huge. Will it, in total, pay off? Probably, just like the internet did," Dimon said. "Will it pay off the way you expect and the timetable you expect? Definitely not."

Hedge your portfolio

As Dimon points out, geopolitical instability is still a concern.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are back in focus as conflict intensifies, sending oil prices above $100 a barrel as of late July (5).

Higher energy prices don't just mean more expensive trips to the gas station — they can ripple through the economy, pushing up the cost of everything. If inflation heats back up, the Federal Reserve may have to delay rate cuts or tighten policy even further.

At the same time, another major question mark is hanging over Wall Street — the AI spending boom.

Big Tech companies have poured hundreds of billions of dollars into AI, betting that today's massive investments will pay off for years to come. Alphabet recently raised its capital spending forecast to up to $205 billion for this year, while warning that expenditures are likely to climb even further in 2027 (6).

But investors are beginning to wonder whether those eye-popping investments will generate the returns companies are banking on. The rise of cheaper open-source AI models, many coming out of China, combined with slowing corporate demand for AI services, has fueled concerns about whether these massive investments will generate enough profits to justify their price tags (7).

With uncertainty building on several fronts, relying too heavily on stocks could leave your portfolio exposed if markets take a sudden turn. Diversifying across different asset classes can help reduce risk and ensure one market downturn doesn't throw your long-term financial plans off course.

Diversify with gold

When uncertainty rises, gold tends to find itself back in the spotlight.

The precious metal has long been viewed as a defensive asset because it has historically held its value during inflationary periods, market downturns and geopolitical crises.

For years, Dimon maintained that he wasn't a "gold buyer," arguing that it "costs 4% to own it" (8). But speaking at the Forbes Most Powerful Women conference last October, the JPMorgan CEO acknowledged that today's environment may be different.

"This is one of the few times in my life, it's semi-rational to have some in your portfolio," Dimon said, adding, "It could easily go to $5,000 or $10,000 in environments like this."

Interestingly, part of Dimon's prediction has already moved closer to reality. The precious yellow metal hit an all-time high of over $5,000 earlier in January (9).

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And with Priority Gold's platinum package, you can even get free account setup and insured shipping and storage for up to five years. Plus, you can also roll over your existing IRA or 401(k) into a precious metals IRA with Priority Gold — tax and penalty-free.

If Dimon's concerns about an overheated stock market prove correct, investors may want to look beyond equities for their next source of growth.

Real estate has long been one of the most popular ways to diversify because it doesn't always move in lockstep with the stock market. While stocks can swing wildly on earnings reports, interest rate expectations, or investor sentiment, residential real estate tends to follow its own cycle. That means adding property exposure can help smooth out your portfolio when markets become more volatile.

There's also another advantage: income. Unlike stocks that rely heavily on price appreciation, rental properties can generate recurring cash flow while also offering the potential for long-term appreciation as home values rise.

Of course, buying an investment property isn't always practical.

Between producing a sizable down payment, qualifying for another mortgage and handling repairs or difficult tenants, owning rental real estate can quickly become a second job.

Mogul is a platform that now allows you to invest in shares of single-family rental homes nationwide.

Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes for you. This way, you can invest in institutional-quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost — while receiving monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits.

Mogul's experts carefully vet each property, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average yearly return of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% and 12% annually. With investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property, offerings often sell out in under three hours.

Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with their team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.

Those with more capital on hand can diversify their real estate portfolio even further. For instance, you could leverage multifamily real estate investing.

In a report prepared by JPMorgan Chase, Al Brooks — the firm's vice chair of Commercial Banking — said, "I think multifamily housing is absolutely where you want to be as an investor" (10).

Accredited investors can now tap into this opportunity through platforms such as Lightstone DIRECT, which gives accredited investors access to single-asset multifamily and industrial deals.

Lightstone DIRECT's direct-to-investor model ensures a high degree of alignment between individual investors and a vertically-integrated, institutional owner-operator — a sophisticated and streamlined option for individual investors looking to diversify into private-market real estate.

Dimon's warning isn't based solely on instinct — several market indicators suggest investors may want to temper expectations.

One of the biggest red flags is valuation.

The Shiller P/E ratio has surged above 40x, signaling that stocks are trading at historically elevated prices (11). Rich valuations don't guarantee an imminent downturn, but they can leave markets more vulnerable if earnings disappoint or economic conditions deteriorate.

That's why many experienced investors broaden their portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds. Even billionaires like Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates have diversified into alternative investments that aren't closely tied to public markets.

One standout example is post-war and contemporary art.

The vertical outpaced the S&P 500 by 15% from 1995 to 2025 while showing near-zero correlation to traditional equities.

Until recently, this world was off-limits. But now, with Masterworks, you can buy fractional shares in multimillion-dollar works by icons like Banksy, Picasso and Basquiat. While art can be illiquid and typically requires a long-term hold, it offers unique portfolio diversification.

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