John Mearsheimer Asks: Will Trump Go Kamikaze?

John Mearsheimer Asks: Will Trump Go Kamikaze?

Authored by John Mearsheimer

There is much talk about President Trump preparing to launch a ground attack against Iran. In the media discourse, much is made of the fact we have about 50,000 troops in the region. See for example these three articles.

One might think those are all combat troops and we therefore have roughly three combat divisions available to invade Iran. But that is not true.

Until recently, there were about 40,000 US troops in the region, which were mainly a mixture of Air Force, Army, and Navy forces. Very importantly, there were few Army or Marine combat troops, although there were certainly some special forces. But they are of little use for major combat operations, for which you need organized combat units like battalions, brigades, regiments, and divisions.

In essence, until recently, there was hardly any organized ground power in the Middle East, which is what you need to invade and hold Iranian territory. As Napoleon was known to say: "God is on the side of the big battalions."
Marine Corps image, illustrative/Camp Schwab, Okinawa

President Troop has recently sent about 2,000 combat troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East as well as the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) comprised of about 2,500 combat troops. There is another MEU – the 11th – on its way to the Middle East from California, which I assume will add another 2,500 combat troops. That MEU is not expected to arrive until mid-April. That means there will be a total of roughly 7,000 combat troops organized in combat units after mid-April, but 4,500 before then.

That is a tiny force with little chance of conquering and holding Iranian territory, especially when you consider that:

1) all these units are light infantry,

2) they have not prepared to fight this particular war and are doing it on the fly,

3) supporting them logistically when they are in combat will be very difficult,

4) Iran has mobilized an army of about a million men and is lying in wait,

5) the Iranian army is likely to put up fierce resistance as not only will it be defending sacred territory, but the fighting forces will surely understand they are facing an existential threat,

6) the skies over the US troops are likely to be filled with deadly drones – think Ukraine where it is hard for either side’s soldiers to move in the open without getting killed,

7) Iranian ballistic missiles, rockets, and artillery will be directed at the US forces.

There is talk that President Trump might send another 10,000 combat troops to the Middle East, but that has not happened yet as best I can tell. Even if it happens, however, the resulting force would still only have 17,000 combat troops. It is worth noting that there will be no Israeli forces involved in the invasion.

Finally, I assume that the combat forces from the 82nd have to be located on a US base or bases once they get to the Middle East. But the Iranians have basically wrecked or seriously damaged the 13 major US installations in the region. So, where do they go and won't Chinese and Russian intelligence spot them wherever they are and tell the Iranians, who will strike at them?

The Marines, on the other hand, will be on giant amphibious assault ships like The USS Iwo Jima (31st) and the USS Boxer (11th). Can ships like that be located near the Persian Gulf, much less in the Strait? Would they not be sitting ducks? All the big Navy ships are parked far away from the Gulf today for good reason.

I must be missing something here, because I don't understand how we could possibly have a serious ground force option.

Maybe with some luck we could take a small island in the Persian Gulf, but I don’t think we could hold it, and even if we did, it would hardly affect the course of the war. In the process, many Americans would die for a lost cause.

Tyler Durden
Wed, 04/01/2026 - 17:20