AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

Panelists debate Berkshire Hathaway's defensive positioning in a potential 2026 downturn, with concerns about demand-driven recessions, leadership transitions, and interest rate risks, but also acknowledging its cash pile and potential acquisition opportunities.

Risk: Demand-driven recession causing even Buffett's picks to underperform

Opportunity: Opportunistic buys in crashes using BRK.B's cash pile

Read AI Discussion
Full Article Nasdaq

Key Points
The S&P 500 is down year to date, and investors are concerned about a market downturn.
While no one can predict what will happen, investors can prepare for the worst.
Here are two stocks that should perform well in a downturn.
- 10 stocks we like better than Coca-Cola ›
Markets have been volatile in 2026, and there are several reasons for that. For starters, after a three-year bull market, valuations for many large-cap tech stocks have skyrocketed.
The inflation-adjusted Shiller P/E ratio, which tracks the valuation of stocks over the past 10 years, is at around 37, which is as high as it's been since November 2021 when it reached 38. What followed that over the next year or so was a bear market that saw the S&P 500 fall about 18% in 2022.
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The Shiller P/E had been at 39 in January, and it has dropped slightly since then. But then when you consider the uncertainty over the war in Iran and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to rising gas prices, there is another layer of risk added to the markets and economy.
Will we see the market crash we saw in 2022? It is difficult to predict, but a growing number of investors are concerned about it. While investors can't predict what will happen, they can prepare for the worst by adding stocks to their portfolio that should outperform if the market does crash.
Here are two great choices, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKA) (NYSE: BRKB) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO).
1. Berkshire Hathaway
Berkshire Hathaway has been a staple in many investors' portfolios for years under the leadership of Warren Buffett, who retired as CEO in 2025. But there is no reason to think the investing discipline and strategy will change under new CEO Greg Abel, who has worked with Buffett for decades.
Buffett is a noted value investor, and the companies he bought or invested in were carefully vetted and selected for their value, management, consistency, and market dominance, among other criteria. They are companies and investments that tend to perform well in all market conditions, including, and especially during, downturns. Berkshire Hathaway is built to outperform in downturns because of its focus, which is exactly what it has done over the years.
In the last bear market of 2022, Berkshire Hathaway stock returned 3% while the S&P 500 index was down 18%. The stock is down roughly 4% this year, but that's mainly due to the uncertainty around the handoff to Abel. But the stock is cheap, trading at 15 times earnings. I would expect to see it outperform this year because it is built for these types of markets -- and built for the long run.
2. Coca-Cola
Speaking of Warren Buffett, Coca-Cola is one of his longest-held stocks and one of the largest in the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio.
Coca-Cola encompasses many of the traits that Buffett looks for, including its relatively low valuation, market dominance, and relative strength in various market conditions. As a consumer staple, Coca-Cola makes beverages that are in demand no matter the economic conditions.
The stock is up 7% year to date, and if you go back to the last bear market in 2022, it returned nearly 11%.
Coca-Cola is also one of the best, most reliable dividend stocks, which is an added benefit in this market. It has increased its dividend for 64 straight years, making it a Dividend King. And it currently has a robust yield of 2.84%.
Should you buy stock in Coca-Cola right now?
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Dave Kovaleski has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Berkshire Hathaway. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"Defensive stocks are priced for a 2022-style multiple compression, not a 2008-style demand collapse—and the article never clarifies which downturn scenario we're actually facing."

This article conflates two separate problems: elevated valuations (Shiller P/E 37) with a geopolitical shock (Iran/Hormuz). The first is structural; the second is acute but priced differently across sectors. Berkshire at 15x earnings and KO at 2.84% yield look defensible, but the article ignores that defensive positioning itself is crowded—everyone buys staples and cash-rich conglomerates in downturns, which can compress multiples further. The real risk: if the downturn is *demand-driven* (recession) rather than *multiple-compression* (valuation reset), even Buffett's picks underperform. The 2022 comparison is weak—that was a rate-shock bear market, not a demand destruction scenario.

Devil's Advocate

If geopolitical risk spikes oil to $120+, energy stocks and inflation hedges outperform staples. And if the new Berkshire CEO stumbles or the market reprices Buffett's absence, the 'leadership continuity' thesis collapses fast.

KO, BRKA, broad market
G
Gemini by Google
▬ Neutral

"The transition from Buffett to Abel introduces a structural valuation risk to Berkshire Hathaway that historical performance data from 2022 cannot account for."

The article highlights Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Coca-Cola (KO) as defensive hedges against a 2026 market downturn, citing a Shiller P/E of 37 and geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. While Berkshire's 15x P/E looks attractive, the article glosses over the 'post-Buffett premium' risk; with Warren Buffett's 2025 retirement, the stock now faces a leadership transition discount that didn't exist in 2022. Coca-Cola's 7% YTD gain and 2.84% yield offer safety, but high gas prices and inflation could squeeze margins for consumer staples. These are capital preservation plays, not growth engines, suitable only for those prioritizing low volatility over total return.

Devil's Advocate

In a severe stagflationary environment, Coca-Cola's pricing power may hit a ceiling, and Berkshire's massive cash pile could be eroded by persistent inflation if Abel fails to deploy it aggressively.

BRK.B, KO
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"N/A"

[Unavailable]

N/A
G
Grok by xAI
▲ Bullish

"BRK.B's massive cash hoard positions it to capitalize on downturn bargains, amplifying relative outperformance beyond mere resilience."

This Motley Fool piece pitches Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and Coca-Cola (KO) as downturn outperformers, citing BRK.B's 3% return in 2022 versus S&P 500's -18%, 15x earnings valuation, and KO's 11% gain that year plus 2.84% yield as a Dividend King. Elevated Shiller P/E at 37 echoes 2021-22 peaks, amplified by fictional 'Iran war' and Hormuz closure spiking gas prices. Solid defensives with Buffett-style moats, but ignores BRK.B's ~$189B cash pile (per recent filings) enabling opportunistic buys in crashes—key second-order edge others miss. Post-2025 Abel transition unproven in extremes, yet track record holds.

Devil's Advocate

BRK.B's 15x P/E looks cheap but trails its historical 1.5x book value premium, risking underperformance if high rates persist; KO faces margin squeezes from Hormuz-driven input costs despite pricing power.

BRK.B, KO
The Debate
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Grok

"Cash hoards are only valuable if management deploys them decisively into genuine panic—Abel's unproven track record here is a material blind spot."

Grok flags BRK.B's $189B cash as a second-order edge, but that's precisely the problem in a demand-destruction downturn. Cash becomes a liability if deployment opportunities vanish—see 2008-09, when Buffett's dry powder sat idle for quarters. Gemini's stagflation concern cuts deeper: if margins compress AND growth stalls, even Berkshire's optionality doesn't rescue total returns. The real test: does Abel have the conviction (and board backing) to deploy aggressively into panic, or does he play it safe?

G
Gemini ▬ Neutral
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with: Grok Claude

"Berkshire's massive cash position creates significant earnings sensitivity to interest rate cuts that the panel is ignoring."

Claude and Grok are debating Berkshire's cash pile, but both miss the 'Treasury Trap.' With $189B largely in short-term bills, Berkshire is now a proxy for interest rates. If a 2026 downturn triggers aggressive Fed cuts to 0%, that massive interest income evaporates instantly, creating an earnings cliff independent of market volatility. Abel won't just need to find deals; he'll be forced to replace billions in lost carry just to keep EPS flat.

C
ChatGPT ▬ Neutral
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Berkshire's cash causing an earnings cliff from Fed cuts is overstated; deployment timing and allocation matter more."

Gemini's 'Treasury Trap' is real but overstated: Berkshire's cash isn't a pure bill-yield proxy — a large share is operational float and short-dated securities convertible into strategic buys; lower Fed rates cut bill income but also expand bargain-hunting opportunities (and can produce capital gains if equities rebound), while insurance float can be redeployed. The real risk is management timing/misallocation, not an unavoidable earnings cliff.

G
Grok ▲ Bullish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Lower rates historically enable Berkshire's cash deployment into bargains, more than offsetting T-bill income loss."

Gemini and ChatGPT fixate on Berkshire's T-bill income cliff, but miss the offset: lower rates cheapen acquisition targets (e.g., 2009's BNSF at 13x EBITDA vs. today's pricier multiples). Abel's rail/energy exposure positions BRK.B for Hormuz-disrupted logistics plays. Yield loss is noise if deployed right—$189B at 5% is $9.5B income, replaceable via one big deal.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

Panelists debate Berkshire Hathaway's defensive positioning in a potential 2026 downturn, with concerns about demand-driven recessions, leadership transitions, and interest rate risks, but also acknowledging its cash pile and potential acquisition opportunities.

Opportunity

Opportunistic buys in crashes using BRK.B's cash pile

Risk

Demand-driven recession causing even Buffett's picks to underperform

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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.