Markets Whiplashed by Trump’s Iran Rhetoric

Oil markets are turning chaotic as conflicting signals from Washington blur reality—talks with Iran may or may not be happening, threats shift by the day, and yet crude keeps climbing amid escalating tensions.
Is the White House Trading Its Own Announcements?
- A move widely interpreted as another edition of a classic Trump ‘TACO’ move, the White House has announced a 5-day postponement to US attacks on Iran power and energy infrastructure, citing ‘very good and productive conversations’. - Whilst the move sent oil prices down by more than $10 per barrel as market participants continue to guess whether the talks are happening or not (Iran denies any interaction), Trump’s Truth Social post also raises potential insider trading issues. - According to Bloomberg, contracts worth at least 6 million barrels of Brent and WTI were sold in the two minutes before Trump’s Iran post, almost tenfold the usual trading volume in oil futures. - The S&P 500 index saw a similar surge in trading activity, seeing some 6,000 contracts traded that represent more than $2 billion in notional value. - Meanwhile, the bullish positions taken up by hedge funds are mind-boggling with the total net length held in ICE Brent futures and options rising to 428,704 contracts in the week ending March 17, the highest in six years.
Market Movers
- Brazil’s state oil company Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) and its partner Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) confirmed a large gas discovery offshore Colombia, finding significant reserves with its Copoazu-1 wildcat in the vicinity of the 6 TCf Sirius gas find. - The Trump administration released French oil major TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE) from $1 billion in offshore wind leases, compensating it ‘dollar-for-dollar’ provided the company redirects those funds to oil and gas investments in the US. - Brazil has granted an exploration drilling license to Norway’s state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) for its offshore Raia project, believed to contain more than 1 billion boe with peak production potentially reaching 126,000 b/d of crude. - Global trading firm Vitol has signed a 1.5 mtpa LNG supply deal with US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG), starting later this year for a 5-year period, with the volumes coming from the 27.2 mtpa Plaquemines export terminal.
Tuesday, March 24, 2026
Following the crude markets is gradually becoming an extreme sport rather than a financial hobby, with US President Trump unleashing a flurry of contradictory messages this week. Is the US holding talks with Iran? Trump says the talks are constructive, Iran says there were none. Can the US reopen the Strait of Hormuz? One day, Trump states he would obliterate Iran if it doesn’t, the next day the President claims he and the ayatollah will share control over it. In an atmosphere of absolute madness, ICE Brent remains in triple digits, climbing to $103 per barrel today after the military side of the Iran-Israel conflict keeps on escalating.
Qatar Declares Force Majeure on Its Supply. Having halted its Ras Laffan LNG liquefaction plant in the first days of the war on March 2, QatarEnergy has now officially declared force majeure on its term contracts with South Korea, China, Italy and Belgium, citing significant damage to the plant.
Tehran Takes Over the Hormuz. According to top Iranian officials, Tehran is now charging vessel operators $2 million to transit the Strait of Hormuz, citing the ‘cost of war’, saying that for vessels from non-enemy combatant countries the waterway is open if they make the right arrangements.
Russian Oil Exports Hit by Drone Attack. Loadings at Russia’s main Baltic Sea export terminal of Primorsk, supplying some 930,000 b/d of crude last year to global markets, were halted for a day after a Ukrainian drone attack, with media reporting on a fuel tank catching fire on Monday.
IEA Flaunts Potential More SPR Releases. The International Energy Agency is consulting with member nations on further releases of strategic petroleum reserves, over and above the 400 million barrels agreed on March 11, citing a longer-than-assumed recovery for damaged upstream assets.
Tehran Claims No More Oil on Water Left. The speaker of the Iranian parliament Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iran’s oil stored on water, believed to be around 30 million barrels before the US lifted sanctions on them, were now completely sold out and NIOC had no more oil to offer.
India Dives Headfirst into Iranian Oil. Simultaneously to Tehran’s claims of having no more oil left, India’s largest private refiner Reliance Industries reportedly bought 5 million barrels of Iranian crude within days of the US Treasury Department’s sanctions waiver, at a $7 per barrel premium to Brent.
Libya Scares Markets with Shut-Ins. Libya’s National Oil Corporation was forced to completely halt its 90,000 b/d El Feel field that is normally sent into its Sharara export stream, after a fire caused by a leak on the two fields’ connecting pipeline made transportation impossible for at least a week.
UAE Restarts Key Gas Processing Unit. The United Arab Emirates resumed operations at the Habshan facility, the country’s largest gas processing plant with a total capacity of 6.1 bcf/day, following an Iranian drone attack last week, whilst minimizing LNG production in the country.
Germany Nudges Buyers to Diversify Beyond US. According to Bloomberg, Germany’s Ministry of Economy is pushing the country’s gas companies to secure more LNG contracts to deal with the ramifications of the US-Iran was, eyeing new regions as US accounts for 94% of Berlin’s LNG imports.
Gulf War Breathes Life into EV Sales. Europe’s EV sales have recovered from a prolonged winter slump in February, spearheaded by a 27% year-over-year jump in Germany after Berlin announced a new €3 billion subsidy scheme, also available for customers that seek to buy cheaper Chinese EVs.
Iran Halts Gas Flows to Turkey. The Israeli strike on gas facilities of the South Pars field in Iran that damaged key energy infrastructure in the Middle Eastern country has led to a halt in natural gas exports to Turkey, with Iranian flows accounting for 13% (or 7 bcm) of Turkey’s gas imports.
Explosion Halts Key US Gulf Refinery. US downstream giant Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) has shut its 380,000 b/d refinery in Port Arthur, Texas, following an explosion and massive fire at the plant’s diesel hydrotreater unit, suggesting diesel production in PADD 3 could take a sizeable hit.
Philippines Declares National Energy Emergency. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr declared a national energy emergency in the Philippines as the country had only 45 days of refined product supply based on current consumption levels, aggravated by China banning exports of fuels abroad.
EU Delays Vote on Permanent Russian Oil Ban. The European Commission postponed a vote on a previously submitted proposal to permanently ban Russian oil imports on April 15, citing ‘current geopolitical developments’, as Brussels wants to legislate a phase-out of Russian crude by end-2027.
Saudi Arabia Moves Ahead with Red Sea Re-Routing. According to ship trackers, Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) ramped up crude exports from its Red Sea port of Yanbu to almost 4 million b/d last week, up 50% compared to the pace of loadings in the first half of March.
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