By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel generally agrees that the unusually high options volume in CMI and QBTS likely reflects hedging, volatility arbitrage, or institutional strategies rather than strong directional conviction. The long-dated, deep out-of-the-money calls do not necessarily indicate bullish positioning on these stocks.
Risk: Without open interest or Greeks data, the panel warns that volume alone can be misleading and may not reflect true conviction or direction.
Opportunity: None explicitly stated.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Cummins, Inc. (Symbol: CMI) saw options trading volume of 8,078 contracts, representing approximately 807,800 underlying shares or approximately 91.3% of CMI's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 884,610 shares. Especially high volume was seen for the $730 strike call option expiring June 18, 2026, with 1,724 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 172,400 underlying shares of CMI. Below is a chart showing CMI's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $730 strike highlighted in orange:
And D-Wave Quantum Inc (Symbol: QBTS) saw options trading volume of 233,826 contracts, representing approximately 23.4 million underlying shares or approximately 90.6% of QBTS's average daily trading volume over the past month, of 25.8 million shares. Particularly high volume was seen for the $25 strike call option expiring May 22, 2026, with 18,947 contracts trading so far today, representing approximately 1.9 million underlying shares of QBTS. Below is a chart showing QBTS's trailing twelve month trading history, with the $25 strike highlighted in orange:
For the various different available expirations for RGTI options, CMI options, or QBTS options, visit StockOptionsChannel.com.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"High 2026 call volume alone supplies no reliable signal of sustained price gains without evidence of net buying."
The article flags outsized options volume in CMI and QBTS, concentrated in long-dated 2026 calls at elevated strikes. This activity equals roughly 90% of each stock's average daily share volume, hinting at possible institutional bets on multi-year upside for Cummins' industrial recovery or D-Wave's quantum computing momentum. Yet the data reveal only contract counts, not whether trades were initiated as buys or sells. Without open-interest changes or premium flow direction, these prints could equally reflect hedging, volatility arbitrage, or dealer rebalancing rather than outright directional conviction.
The heaviest prints may simply be market makers facilitating customer sales of calls or unwinding prior long positions, leaving no net bullish pressure on the underlying shares.
"Unusual options volume is a data point, not a signal—without knowing who is trading, why, and at what skew, this article tells us activity happened but not whether it's bullish, bearish, or mechanically driven."
This article reports unusual options volume but conflates activity with conviction. CMI's 1,724 contracts on the $730 June 2026 call represents 91% of daily volume—notable, but $730 is ~23% above current price with 18+ months to expiration; this could be hedging, rolling, or systematic selling by market makers, not necessarily bullish positioning. QBTS shows 18,947 contracts on $25 calls (May 2026)—massive notional, but QBTS trades 25.8M shares daily; 90% of that volume in options alone suggests retail speculation or index rebalancing, not institutional conviction. The article provides zero context: Who initiated? Call spreads or naked calls? Are these earnings hedges? Without open interest, Greeks, or bid-ask spreads, volume alone is noise.
High options volume often precedes significant moves and can signal informed traders positioning ahead of catalysts; dismissing it as 'just noise' ignores that options markets sometimes front-run equity moves by 24-48 hours.
"The extreme out-of-the-money call activity in these names is more indicative of institutional volatility hedging and speculative gamma plays than a fundamental shift in valuation outlook."
The massive volume in long-dated, deep out-of-the-money calls for QBTS ($25 strike for 2026) and CMI ($730 strike for 2026) is less about fundamental conviction and more about speculative gamma positioning or institutional hedging strategies. While retail might see this as 'smart money' betting on a massive breakout, the reality is likely institutional volatility harvesting or long-term LEAPS strategies meant to capitalize on extreme IV skews. For QBTS, a micro-cap quantum player, this volume is noise, not signal. For CMI, a massive industrial, these strikes are so far removed from current price action that they suggest a 'lottery ticket' hedge or yield-enhancement play rather than a directional bet on earnings growth.
These volumes could represent sophisticated institutional 'smart money' front-running a major technological breakthrough or a structural shift in Cummins' hydrogen-electrolyzer business that the market has yet to price in.
"High options activity alone does not prove a bullish conviction; hedging and liquidity dynamics could explain the signals."
Unusually high option volume on CMI and QBTS signals interest, but the read isn’t straightforward. The CMI 730 June 18, 2026 call could reflect a bullish thesis on long-term demand or simply hedging by a large holder; without price action, open interest, or IV data, it’s hard to gauge conviction. QBTS’s near-term 25 calls imply a quick upside view or aggressive hedging in a volatile, illiquid name, yet tomorrow’s expiry leaves little room for error and makes time decay a real risk. In both cases, catalysts, IV levels, and current open interest are the missing pieces to validate any directional bet.
The volume could easily be noise or hedging in illiquid names, not a genuine bullish bet; without supporting price action or open interest data, the signal may be a liquidity or delta-hedging artifact rather than conviction.
"QBTS 2026 calls overlook dilution risks from capital raises that could erase gamma gains despite volume signals."
Claude questions conviction without open interest or Greeks, but the 2026 expirations for both names align with multi-year industrial and quantum roadmaps that short-term hedging arguments ignore. QBTS faces dilution risk from ongoing capital raises in a speculative sector, which could erode any gamma positioning gains even if volume signals informed bets. This connects the long-dated bets to structural funding uncertainties rather than isolated trades.
"Roadmap alignment is not evidence of informed buying; without flow direction, we're pattern-matching narratives to noise."
Grok conflates roadmap alignment with conviction—the 2026 expirations matching industrial timelines doesn't prove informed positioning; it's equally consistent with retail lottery tickets or systematic vol strategies. QBTS dilution risk is real, but it cuts both ways: if capital raises fund growth, long calls still pay. The missing piece remains: are these calls being *bought* or *sold*? Volume alone can't answer that.
"High options volume in these specific tickers likely reflects institutional hedging of debt or compensation structures rather than directional market conviction."
Claude is right to focus on the buy/sell dichotomy, but misses the institutional mechanics of liquidity. In illiquid names like QBTS, massive call volume often isn't 'smart money'—it’s market makers managing delta exposure from convertible debt hedging or stock-based compensation programs. We are all over-analyzing the 'conviction' of the trade while ignoring that these prints are likely just institutional plumbing. If these aren't retail 'lottery tickets,' they are almost certainly dealer-side hedging.
"Large long-dated OTM option prints often reflect hedging/gamma positioning by dealers or funds, not clear conviction; lack of open interest/deltas means volume alone is ambiguous."
Claude is right that volume alone isn’t conviction, but large OTM, long-dated prints often reflect hedging and gamma positioning by dealers or funds, not retail bets. QBTS dilution could trigger delta-hedging that inflates calls without bullish intent. CMI’s 730 Jun 2026 might be a volatility or carry hedge, not a guaranteed multi-year bet. Without open interest or delta data, the signal remains ambiguous, not noise.
The panel generally agrees that the unusually high options volume in CMI and QBTS likely reflects hedging, volatility arbitrage, or institutional strategies rather than strong directional conviction. The long-dated, deep out-of-the-money calls do not necessarily indicate bullish positioning on these stocks.
None explicitly stated.
Without open interest or Greeks data, the panel warns that volume alone can be misleading and may not reflect true conviction or direction.