By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
NuScale's 45.5% YTD decline is not a buying opportunity due to persistent commercialization risks, lack of operating SMRs, and deep unprofitability. The panel agrees that NuScale's stock price reflects execution doubts and potential AI capex slowdown rather than irrational selling.
Risk: The expiration of the 45U nuclear PTC in 2025 without renewal, which would collapse SMR economics for first-mover projects, and the geopolitical bottleneck of HALEU fuel supply dominated by Russia.
Opportunity: A signed, bankable PPA with risk-adjusted pricing and stable funding for a domestic HALEU supply to convert NRC laurels into revenue.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Roaring out of the gate to start the new year, shares of NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) soared 23.4% in January. Expand the perspective, though, and the next-generation nuclear reactor stock's performance is much less thrilling. As of this writing, shares of NuScale Power have plummeted 45.5% year to date.
But savvy investors know that when the market sours on a stock, a sweet buying opportunity sometimes emerges -- a phenomenon that is now the case with NuScale Power. Here's why.
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It wasn't so long ago that NuScale Power stock gleamed brightly in the eyes of growth investors. Two years ago, enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) was booming, and the market soon learned that data centers required massive amounts of power due to the steep demands of AI computing.
Advanced nuclear reactor stocks like NuScale Power appeared to be the answer, and their stocks flourished. Shares of NuScale Power rocketed 445% in 2024.
Recently, however, investors haven't become restless, trimming -- or exiting altogether -- their positions. There's no clear catalyst for the decline of these stocks. Perhaps investors have lost patience with the companies' progress, or they've become disenchanted after learning that some communities are pushing back against the development of data centers. Or maybe it's the broad belief that an AI bubble has formed, and it's better to leave most AI-related stocks alone.
Investors would be short-sighted to assume that supporting data center infrastructure is the only opportunity for NuScale Power. In addition to water desalinization, the company recognizes hydrogen production facilities as two current applications for its small modular reactors (SMR).
Over the longer term, however, management recognizes additional use cases. In its annual report, NuScale Power states that it is developing micro-reactors for "niche end-markets" that would benefit from supplying power to remote, off-grid communities, including mining operations, universities, space, military installations, and disaster relief.
NuScale Power isn't alone in recognizing the growing market opportunity. According to the business intelligence firm Global Market Insights, the global small modular reactor market was valued at $3.6 billion in 2025 and is expected to total $5.3 billion in 2026, then rising at a 12.7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) until 2035, when it's projected to total $15.6 billion.
With growing market opportunities and the fact that NuScale Power is the only company that has small modular reactor (SMR) designs approved by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, it's clear why forward-looking investors should find this nuclear energy stock so alluring. It's critical, though, that investors remember this high-reward stock also carries significant risks, as there's no guarantee the company will obtain the required operating licenses or achieve profitability.
For those uninterested in taking on higher risk, a nuclear energy ETF that includes NuScale Power among its holdings may be a more appealing option.
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Scott Levine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"NuScale's NRC approval is real but insufficient to offset execution risk and ongoing losses, making the 'long-term buy' narrative premature without near-term catalysts."
The article frames NuScale Power (SMR)'s 45.5% YTD decline as a buying opportunity, citing NRC-approved SMR designs, diversification beyond data centers (desalination, hydrogen, remote micro-reactors), and a projected SMR market CAGR of 12.7% to $15.6B by 2035. However, it glosses over persistent commercialization risk: despite approval, NuScale has no operating SMRs, has faced project cancellations (e.g., Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems), and remains deeply unprofitable with cash burn. The 2024 445% surge was AI-hype driven; current pullback reflects execution doubts and potential AI capex slowdown rather than irrational selling.
The strongest case against buying now is that regulatory approval has not translated to revenue or profitability after years of delays; without firm offtake contracts or positive cash flow, further dilution or project failures could drive the stock materially lower regardless of long-term market TAM.
"NuScale’s stock price is currently uncoupled from its actual commercial progress, making it a high-risk gamble on speculative future demand rather than a value play."
The article frames SMR’s 45% YTD decline as a 'buying opportunity,' but it ignores the fundamental chasm between NRC design approval and commercial viability. While NuScale is the only firm with a certified design, certification does not equal revenue. The company is burning cash at an alarming rate to maintain operations without a clear path to project financing or a signed, profitable power purchase agreement. Betting on SMR now is a pure speculative play on the 'nuclear renaissance' narrative, ignoring the reality that utility-scale deployment of SMRs faces massive capital expenditure hurdles and regulatory friction that could take another decade to resolve.
If NuScale secures a major government-backed contract or a breakthrough deal with a hyperscaler like Amazon or Microsoft, the stock could re-rate instantly based on the scarcity value of its NRC-approved technology.
"NuScale has regulatory approval but no commercial revenue, and the article offers no evidence the company can execute profitably at scale—the 46% decline reflects justified skepticism, not panic."
NuScale (SMR) is trading on narrative whiplash, not fundamentals. The article conflates regulatory approval with commercial viability—NRC design certification ≠ operating licenses or revenue. The 12.7% SMR market CAGR to 2035 ($3.6B→$15.6B) sounds robust until you realize: (1) NuScale has zero deployed units generating revenue, (2) first commercial project (Utah) faced cost overruns and delays, (3) data center demand—the bull thesis—is now questioned by the article itself. The 46% YTD decline reflects rational repricing of hype, not a buying opportunity. The article's own hedge ('ETF might be better') signals the author's uncertainty.
If NuScale clears regulatory hurdles and secures long-term contracts with data centers or industrial hydrogen producers at premium rates, the addressable market (desalination, remote power, military) could justify a 2-3x multiple expansion from here within 5 years, making today's price a genuine entry point for patient capital.
"NuScale faces a multi-year, capital-intensive commercialization path with uncertain profitability, making the optimistic long-term bull case highly contingent on favorable regulatory, financing, and policy outcomes."
NuScale is pitched as a long-run winner in a growing SMR market, but the reality is a long, costly licensing-to-revenue path with execution risk. The article’s NRC claim may be outdated or overstated; even with design approval, utilities face funding, siting, and public-acceptance hurdles. The TAM (data centers, desalination, remote/off-grid) is aspirational, and adoption hinges on cost parity with incumbent power, subsidies, and financing terms—years away in many cases. An ETF could diversify away NuScale’s idiosyncratic risk, but that caps upside. If policy support wanes or regulatory timelines slip, the stock could stay stuck despite a large addressable market.
Even if NuScale clears the NRC, there’s no guarantee customers will buy, and profitability remains unproven; the 'only NRC-approved' claim could be wrong or outdated, and licensing delays could stretch for years, capping upside.
"Policy cliff on IRA credits by end-2025 represents a larger near-term risk than commercialization timelines."
Claude correctly flags the Utah cancellation, but everyone underweights second-order policy risk: the IRA's 45U nuclear PTC expires in 2025 absent renewal. Without extension, SMR economics collapse for first-mover projects. NuScale's cash burn already assumes subsidies; a lame-duck Congress or shifted priorities could accelerate dilution or force asset sales.
"The lack of a secure, domestic HALEU fuel supply chain renders NuScale's NRC-approved design commercially non-viable in the near term."
Grok is right about the 45U tax credit, but misses the deeper structural risk: the supply chain for HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium). Even if NuScale secures a contract, the fuel supply remains a geopolitical bottleneck dominated by Russia. Without a domestic, reliable HALEU pipeline, NRC approval is moot. The 'nuclear renaissance' is currently a paper tiger; until we see a signed, bankable PPA that accounts for fuel-sourcing risk, the stock is just a high-beta option on energy policy.
"HALEU supply is a medium-term risk, not a near-term blocker; NuScale's cash runway is the binding constraint."
Gemini's HALEU bottleneck is real, but overstated as a near-term blocker. The U.S. has domestic HALEU production capacity coming online (URENCO, X-energy partnerships); it's constrained, not absent. More pressing: NuScale's cash runway. At current burn rates (~$200M annually), they have 2–3 years before forced dilution or asset sales, regardless of fuel supply. That timeline matters more than 2035 TAM projections. If no major contract closes by Q4 2025, stock reprices lower on dilution fears alone.
"NuScale's near-term value hinges on bankable PPAs and domestic HALEU certainty, not TAM growth or a subsidy extension alone."
You're right on the 45U risk, Grok, but the near-term driver is more than a subsidy cliff. NuScale needs bankable PPAs and a domestic HALEU supply to convert NRC laurels into revenue. Even a 2025 extension may not help if contract economics stay punitive or fuel access remains constrained. The stock's key catalysts are 1) a signed PPA with risk-adjusted pricing, and 2) stable funding—not TAM expansion in 2035. Absent those, dilution risk dominates.
NuScale's 45.5% YTD decline is not a buying opportunity due to persistent commercialization risks, lack of operating SMRs, and deep unprofitability. The panel agrees that NuScale's stock price reflects execution doubts and potential AI capex slowdown rather than irrational selling.
A signed, bankable PPA with risk-adjusted pricing and stable funding for a domestic HALEU supply to convert NRC laurels into revenue.
The expiration of the 45U nuclear PTC in 2025 without renewal, which would collapse SMR economics for first-mover projects, and the geopolitical bottleneck of HALEU fuel supply dominated by Russia.