Nvidia Resumes H200 Chip Production For China After Receiving Purchase Orders

By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq · 18 Mar 2026, 23:13

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Nvidia's Mixed Market NVDA

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(RTTNews) - Nvidia [NVDA] has received purchase orders for its H200 processors from customers in China and is restarting manufacturing after securing the necessary export approvals, according to CEO Jensen Huang. Nvidia now has clearance from both U.S. and Chinese authorities, allowing shipments to move forward after months of delays.
China previously accounted for at least one-fifth of Nvidia's data center revenue, but exports were heavily restricted after the U.S. government required licenses for advanced chip sales beginning in April. Nvidia had earlier disclosed a $5.5 billion charge linked to those export controls.
Before the latest approval, Nvidia had developed the H20 chip specifically for the Chinese market under earlier restrictions. Subsequent policy adjustments allowed the more advanced H200 to be sold, provided the U.S. government receives 25 percent of the related sales revenue.
Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress stated that only a small number of H200 units had been approved so far, and no revenue had yet been recorded from China. Despite the limited China sales, Nvidia reported 73 percent revenue growth in its latest quarter and projected about 77 percent growth for the current quarter, while still assuming no China data center revenue in its guidance.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"Nvidia has regulatory clearance but operational constraints (small approved unit volumes, zero current revenue, 25% U.S. revenue share, and zero China guidance) mean this is a 2025 story at earliest, not a Q3 catalyst."

This reads like a headline designed to comfort investors, but the details are actually quite constraining. Yes, Nvidia got export approval and received orders—but CFO Kress explicitly states 'only a small number of H200 units' approved and zero revenue recorded yet. Nvidia is still guiding zero China data center revenue despite the restart. The 25% revenue-sharing requirement with the U.S. government is a permanent tax on China sales that didn't exist before. The H20 pivot (lower-margin, China-specific chip) suggests Nvidia may have already captured what it could from the restricted market. This is optionality, not a material near-term revenue driver.

Devil's Advocate

If geopolitical tensions ease further and approval volumes ramp unexpectedly in Q3/Q4, China could contribute 3-5% incremental upside to FY25 revenue—and the market is currently pricing in zero, creating asymmetric upside.

NVDA

Gemini by Google

▬ Neutral

"The H200 China sales are a regulatory-constrained, low-margin bridge that will not meaningfully alter Nvidia's primary growth trajectory driven by U.S. hyperscalers."

While the market may view this as a return to form for NVDA in China, the reality is that the H200 is a 'compromised' product. The U.S. government’s 25% revenue-sharing mandate and strict licensing suggest this is less about volume growth and more about maintaining a foothold in a market that is rapidly accelerating its domestic silicon independence. NVDA’s 77% projected revenue growth is driven by hyperscalers in the U.S., not this regulatory-constrained trickle. Investors should view this as a marginal win for diplomatic relations, not a material catalyst for earnings growth, especially given the ongoing threat of further tightening by the Bureau of Industry and Security.

Devil's Advocate

If the H200 gains traction, it could create a 'sticky' ecosystem in China that prevents domestic alternatives like Huawei’s Ascend chips from fully capturing the market, effectively preserving NVDA's long-term moat.

NVDA

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▬ Neutral

"Resuming H200 shipments to China removes a major geopolitical tail risk but is unlikely to move near‑term results until approvals scale and the economics of sales (including any licensing or revenue‑sharing conditions) are clarified."

This is a de‑risking event rather than an immediate revenue catalyst: Nvidia has cleared an administrative hurdle by getting export approvals and purchase orders for H200 in China, which historically represented ~20% of its data‑center revenue. But CFO Kress says only a small number of H200s are approved and no China revenue is yet recorded; guidance still assumes zero China data‑center sales. The $5.5B charge and the article's claim about a "25% of related sales revenue" condition raise questions about deal economics and reporting. Real upside requires scaleable approvals, predictable licensing terms, and sustained Chinese demand.

Devil's Advocate

If approvals scale quickly and Chinese hyperscalers place big follow‑on orders, Nvidia could rapidly recover a material portion of lost data‑center revenue and unwind some of the earlier charge—meaning this is a clear bullish inflection. Also, the market may re‑rate NVDA on the mere removal of a major geopolitical overhang.

NVDA

Grok by xAI

▲ Bullish

"H200 China shipments unlock upside to NVDA's zero-China revenue guidance, potentially accelerating data center growth beyond 77%."

Nvidia's H200 resumption for China is bullish upside to its Q2 guide assuming zero China data center revenue—previously ~20% of the segment. Even with a small initial batch and 25% U.S. gov't cut on sales (effectively a steep tax), it validates demand for compliant high-end GPUs amid H20 ramp. NVDA's 73% Q1 growth and 77% Q2 projection look conservative; partial China recovery could drive re-rating from 11.6x forward P/E (vs. 19% EPS growth). Risks include volume caps or renewed curbs, but this beats $5.5B prior write-off.

Devil's Advocate

Approvals cover only a 'small number' of units with zero revenue booked yet, and guidance explicitly excludes China—rendering this more symbolic than material amid volatile U.S. export policy shifts.

NVDA

The Debate

Claude ▼ Bearish

Responding to Grok

Disagrees with: Grok

"The 25% revenue share sets a dangerous precedent that will likely trigger further restrictions rather than enable scaling."

Grok flags the P/E re-rating angle, but that math only works if China revenue materializes at scale. The real risk nobody's surfaced: the 25% U.S. government cut isn't just a tax—it's a precedent. If approved volumes do ramp, expect BIS to tighten licensing further or demand higher cuts. Nvidia's trapped between geopolitical leverage and margin erosion. The 'small number' language suggests management expects this to stay constrained, not explode.

Gemini ▲ Bullish

Responding to Anthropic

Disagrees with: Anthropic Google

"Nvidia's China strategy is a defensive necessity to prevent Huawei from achieving critical mass in the AI hardware ecosystem."

Anthropic is right about the precedent, but both Anthropic and Google are ignoring the 'Huawei risk.' While they fixate on the 25% revenue-sharing tax, they miss that Nvidia’s primary objective isn't margin preservation—it's market share defense. If Nvidia cedes the Chinese market entirely, Huawei’s Ascend ecosystem will achieve economies of scale and software maturity, permanently locking Nvidia out. This isn't a revenue play; it's a strategic defensive moat-maintenance expenditure that the market currently ignores.

ChatGPT ▬ Neutral

{ "analysis": "Anthropic flags the 25% precedent, but misses the bigger operational cost: compliance, auditing, and product segmentation costs will likely exceed the headline 'tax.' Managing split S

Grok ▲ Bullish

Responding to Google

Disagrees with: Google Anthropic

"Small H200 volumes provide low-cost CUDA moat defense against Huawei, turning regulatory constraints into strategic advantage."

Google's Huawei risk assumes Nvidia must flood China with volume to defend share, but that's backward: even 'small number' of superior H200s with CUDA software keeps the ecosystem sticky, slowing Huawei's software maturity at minimal cost (25% tax on trickle revenue). Ceding entirely risks permanent lockout; this is cheap moat insurance with upside to Q2 guide. Precedent fears are speculative without BIS signals.