By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on XRP, citing uncertain catalysts, weak utility thesis, and competition from stablecoins and CBDCs. They agree that regulatory clarity is crucial but not sufficient for XRP's success.
Risk: Volatility risk and competition from stablecoins and CBDCs could cap XRP's upside.
Opportunity: Regulatory clarity could provide a near-term price pop, but it's not guaranteed to translate into durable demand.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Ripple uses XRP to support fast, cheap cross-border payments, and the recent launch of the Ripple USD stablecoin makes the ecosystem more attractive.
The SEC is expected to make a decision regarding spot XRP ETFs by late October, and approval could send XRP prices much higher in the years ahead.
Morningstar analysts expect the cryptocurrency market to expand at 9% annually through 2034, but I think XRP could grow more quickly over the next five years.
Ripple uses XRP to support fast, cheap cross-border payments, and the recent launch of the Ripple USD stablecoin makes the ecosystem more attractive.
The SEC is expected to make a decision regarding spot XRP ETFs by late October, and approval could send XRP prices much higher in the years ahead.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has advanced 725% in the last three years, with most of those gains coming in the last 12 months following President Trump's election and the SEC's decision to end its lawsuit against Ripple, a fintech company that uses the XRP blockchain to facilitate payments for businesses and financial institutions.
Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered anticipates more gains as XRP plays a larger role in the global financial systems and XRP ETFs bring more investors to the market. He estimates XRP to reach $12.25 by 2029. That implies 315% upside from its current price of $2.95, which is equivalent to annual returns of 43%.
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That seems overly optimistic. Morningstar analysts expect the broader cryptocurrency market to grow at 9% annually through 2034, a reasonable estimate that roughly aligns with the long-term returns in the global stock market. XRP, the third-largest cryptocurrency, is likely to outperform the market, but not so much as Kendrick predicted.
Investors should be more conservative: If XRP returns 20% annually over the next five years, its price will increase about 150% to $7.35 by late 2030. The pending approval of spot XRP ETFs is the most important catalyst in my estimate, but greater adoption from businesses and financial institutions is plausible to some degree.
Here's what investors should know.
Fintech company Ripple provides cross-border payment solutions to financial institutions and businesses. Its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) service uses the XRP token as a bridge currency to make international transfers faster and less expensive than traditional wire transfers supported by the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications) messaging system.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently estimated that, within five years, XRP could capture 14% of the cross-border transaction volume currently handled by SWIFT. But I am very skeptical about that prediction. While it is true that hundreds of banks use Ripple Payments, an umbrella term that includes all its products, the vast majority do not use its ODL service.
In other words, most Ripple customers do not depend on XRP for funds transfers. After all, it makes little sense to move money with a volatile cryptocurrency that could lose a material amount of value in the few seconds required for transactions to settle.
Ripple has addressed that issue by adding a stablecoin, Ripple USD, to its ecosystem. But it faces competition from larger stablecoins like USDC and Tether.
Demand for XRP would increase (theoretically leading to price appreciation) if more businesses and financial institutions start sending payments on the XRP blockchain. That is true no matter which token serves as the bridge currency because transaction fees are paid in XRP. However, XRP is volatile, and RLUSD is much less popular than other stablecoins, which makes this part of the investment thesis weak.
Several asset managers plan to introduce exchange-traded fund that track the spot price of the XRP token. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has received at least eight applications for such products, and the decision deadline for most of them falls in late October 2025. Eric Balchunas at Bloomberg puts the odds of approval at 95%.
Spot XRP ETFs could unlock demand among retail and institutional investors by eliminating the hassle and high fees associated of cryptocurrency exchanges. Traders would no longer need separate accounts for their cryptocurrency portfolios, nor would they have to pay exorbitant transaction fees. The additional demand could drive XRP prices higher.
Indeed, Bitcoin has returned 140% since spot Bitcoin ETFs earned SEC approval about two years ago. In fact, the iShares Bitcoin Trust was the most successful ETF launch in history based on inflows, according to The Wall Street Journal. I doubt spot XRP ETFs will get as much attention, but I think XRP's price could more than double in the next five years.
However, investors should understand the risks before buying the cryptocurrency. XRP has historically been very volatile, with its price falling more than 35% from a record high three times in the last three years alone. Therefore, investors uncomfortable with large price swings should avoid the cryptocurrency.
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Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends Standard Chartered Plc. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Durable XRP upside hinges on regulatory clarity and ETF-driven demand; without them, the price is unlikely to sustain multi-year gains."
Bearish-on-XRP take: The article rests on two uncertain catalysts—SEC spot XRP ETFs approval by late Oct 2025 and Ripple's 14% cross-border share claim. Neither is guaranteed; regulators could delay or deny, soaking up any near-term price upside. Even with ETFs, XRP's use case remains fragile: ODL adoption hinges on banks embracing XRP despite its volatility, RLUSD faces competition from USDC/Tether, and stablecoins' regulatory risk could cap upside. The 5-year 20% annual return assumption implies ~2.5x price, which ignores possible macro shocks and crypto drawdowns. Without regulatory clarity, the path to durable gains looks riskier than the article suggests.
Bull case: a timely SEC spot XRP ETF approval and rapid ODL adoption could unlock durable inflows, pushing XRP higher regardless of short-term volatility. If RLUSD gains traction and banks scale cross-border payments on Ripple, XRP could test multi-year highs over the next 2–3 years.
"The investment thesis for XRP relies on the fallacy that ETF-driven retail speculation equates to long-term institutional adoption of the underlying blockchain for settlement."
The article conflates speculative retail demand via ETFs with actual institutional utility, which is a dangerous oversight. While an XRP ETF would certainly provide a liquidity injection and price support, it does nothing to solve the fundamental 'bridge currency' problem. Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) remains a niche product because institutional treasurers are historically allergic to the volatility risk inherent in holding XRP, even for seconds. The $12.25 price target relies on a massive, unproven shift in global settlement architecture that ignores the competitive moat of incumbent stablecoins like USDC and the potential for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to render private bridge assets obsolete.
If institutional adoption reaches a critical mass, the network effect of the XRP Ledger could create a liquidity premium that decouples the token from its volatility, making it the preferred 'neutral' asset for cross-border settlement.
"XRP's price appreciation depends almost entirely on ETF approval and speculative retail demand, not on solving any material payments problem that Ripple has failed to crack in a decade."
The article's $7.35 target (20% CAGR) is defensible but rests entirely on SEC ETF approval as catalyst. The real problem: XRP's utility thesis is weaker than presented. Ripple CEO's 14% SWIFT displacement claim is fantasy—the author correctly notes most Ripple customers don't use ODL, and RLUSD adoption is negligible against USDC/Tether. Even if ETFs launch, XRP remains a speculative bet on payments adoption that hasn't materialized despite years of development. Bitcoin's 140% post-ETF gain isn't a reliable comp; BTC has genuine scarcity and macro tailwinds. XRP's volatility (35%+ drawdowns thrice in three years) suggests retail ETF inflows could reverse sharply.
If institutional adoption accelerates post-ETF and RLUSD gains traction as Ripple's stablecoin moat, XRP could outperform the 20% CAGR baseline significantly—Standard Chartered's $12.25 target isn't absurd if cross-border payment volumes shift meaningfully.
"Limited real ODL usage and stablecoin competition make sustained 20% annual XRP appreciation improbable through 2030."
The article's $7.35 XRP target by 2030 assumes 20% annualized gains from ETFs and ODL growth, but underplays how few Ripple Payments users actually rely on XRP as bridge asset. RLUSD faces entrenched USDC and Tether competition, while transaction fees paid in volatile XRP deter banks. Historical drawdowns exceeding 35% three times since 2022 suggest retail inflows from ETFs may prove fleeting rather than structural. Standard Chartered's $12.25 call looks detached from on-chain ODL volumes, which remain modest despite Garlinghouse's SWIFT claims.
Approval of multiple spot XRP ETFs by late October 2025 could still trigger a short-term inflow spike similar to Bitcoin's 2024 rally, temporarily validating higher multiples before fundamentals reassert.
"CBDC-led settlement rails could erode XRP's moat, making upside hinge on timing rather than durable demand."
My angle is CBDC and settlement rails are the real wildcard not yet priced: even with ETF inflows and ODL, a rapid, interoperable CBDC/central-bank rails could supplant private bridge assets. If banks migrate to direct digital settlement rather than XRP-based liquidity corridors, XRP's utility—and thus upside—could compress to episodic liquidity rather than durable demand, regardless of near-term ETF pop. That creates a downside scenario where timing matters as much as scale.
"Regulatory clarity could force institutional capital into XRP as the only 'safe' legal asset, creating a moat that outweighs current utility concerns."
Claude and Grok are right to dismiss the SWIFT displacement narrative, but you're all ignoring the 'regulatory capture' risk. If Ripple wins the SEC war, XRP becomes the only 'cleared' asset for US institutions, creating a massive regulatory moat that stablecoins lack. The real risk isn't just competition from USDC; it's the potential for the SEC to classify non-XRP assets as securities, forcing institutional capital into the only 'safe' harbor. That's a structural tailwind, not just a price pop.
"Regulatory clarity for XRP doesn't create a moat if the underlying use case—volatile bridge asset—remains inferior to stablecoins or CBDCs."
Gemini's 'regulatory capture' angle is creative but inverts the actual risk. SEC classification of XRP as non-security doesn't automatically make competitors securities—USDC and USDT already operate under FinCEN frameworks. The real constraint: even if XRP gains regulatory clarity, banks still face volatility drag. A CBDC rail (ChatGPT's point) or stablecoin dominance sidesteps XRP entirely. Regulatory moat ≠ utility moat. Gemini assumes the SEC will *protect* XRP; more likely it just removes litigation overhang.
"Regulatory clarity fails to override banks' documented aversion to XRP volatility in actual settlement flows."
Gemini's regulatory moat claim assumes SEC non-security status automatically funnels institutions to XRP, yet it ignores the volatility barrier Claude highlighted and ChatGPT's CBDC rails. Even cleared assets face rejection if treasurers refuse holding XRP for settlement; current ODL volumes show banks already bypass it for USDC corridors. This moat may only extend the timeline to obsolescence rather than create durable demand.
The panel consensus is bearish on XRP, citing uncertain catalysts, weak utility thesis, and competition from stablecoins and CBDCs. They agree that regulatory clarity is crucial but not sufficient for XRP's success.
Regulatory clarity could provide a near-term price pop, but it's not guaranteed to translate into durable demand.
Volatility risk and competition from stablecoins and CBDCs could cap XRP's upside.