RH CEO Warns Of 'Most Dire' Housing Market As Mortgage Applications Tumble On Rising Rates

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Mortgage demand tumbled last week as rising borrowing costs continued to weigh on buyers, with applications falling 10.4% overall, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association released Wednesday.
The slowdown comes as RH CEO Gary Friedman warned of "the most dire housing market in decades," citing global tensions, tariffs, and economic uncertainty, underscoring the mounting strain on U.S. homebuyers and the broader housing sector.
Refinance applications led the drop, falling 17% week-over-week and more than 40% compared to last month. Purchase applications slipped 3%.
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The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.57%, its highest level since August, said Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the MBA. He noted that while higher borrowing costs are weighing on demand, increased housing supply is offering some offset. Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veterans Affairs (VA) loan applications continue to hold up better than conventional loans.
The spike in borrowing costs comes amid broader macro pressure. The ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict escalation has driven energy prices higher, pushing Treasury yields up and keeping mortgage rates elevated. Rising yields have remained under pressure amid global uncertainty and recent volatility in the bond market.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development now projects U.S. inflation at 4.2% in 2026, up from 2.6% in 2025. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady through 2026 and into 2027, limiting near-term relief for borrowers.
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Luxury home furnishings brand RH’s shares slid as earnings exposed housing market stress. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.53, missing the $2.22 consensus, while revenue of $842.6M fell short of the $873.3M forecast. The company sees FY2026 revenue at $3.57–3.71B and Q1 at $781–798M, both below estimates.
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Broader concerns around affordability are also mounting. Former White House official Anthony Scaramucci said the American Dream is "impaired," warning of a 27% drop in middle-class purchasing power since the 1970s.
Personal finance expert Dave Ramsey warned that mistakes in today's housing market could cost buyers "tens of thousands of dollars."
Meanwhile, Zillow Group Inc. expects home prices to rise just 0.7% by the end of 2026, reflecting a subdued outlook.
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