By Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel generally agrees that the article overhypes SpaceX's potential IPO, glossing over significant risks and uncertainties. They caution against retail investors chasing 'the next SpaceX' based on OTPP's success story, as it may not translate to public markets and comes with substantial risks.
Risk: Lack of shareholder power in a potential public entity with a dual-class structure and ongoing capital needs (Starlink, Starship) that may result in negative free cash flow for years.
Opportunity: Potential high returns if SpaceX successfully executes on its projects and the IPO materializes at the rumored valuation.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
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A seven-year-old bet on Elon Musk may be about to blast off in spectacular fashion.
Back in 2019 (1), a Canadian-based teachers’ pension fund invested roughly $220 million into SpaceX when the rocket company was valued at around $35 billion. Now, with SpaceX reportedly targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation in its long-awaited IPO, that stake could be worth as much as $11.6 billion (2).
<pre><code> ## Top Picks </code></pre>That’s a possible return of more than 5,100%.
The investor wasn’t a Silicon Valley venture capital firm or a billionaire hedge fund manager, but an Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP) (3), a managed retirement savings plan for 346,000 teachers.
The potential windfall highlights just how much wealth can be created before a company ever reaches the public market. And it raises a question for everyday investors — where can you find the next wave of growth once a company like SpaceX has already become a household name?
<pre><code> ## A $220 million investment that could be worth $11.6 billion </code></pre>According to Forbes, the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan invested approximately $220 million in SpaceX in 2019, when the company was valued between $33 billion and $36 billion.
Today, SpaceX is reportedly seeking a valuation of over $1 trillion ahead of its planned Nasdaq debut. If the IPO meets this benchmark, the pension fund’s stake could hit that $11.6 billion.
<pre><code> Few investments generate life-changing returns. Even fewer grow more than 50-fold in less than a decade — that’s a feat achieved by less than 0.1% of listed U.S. stocks over any rolling ten-year window, according to analysis done by Baillie Gifford of Morgan Stanley (4) on market ‘skewness’. </code></pre>The gains have already helped boost the pension fund’s venture-growth portfolio. In March, the organization reported a 30% surge in that segment during 2025 (5), driven largely by its investment in SpaceX.
In 2019, SpaceX was still a privately held aerospace company working to expand its launch business and roll out its Starlink satellite network. Investors who bought in early were betting on a vision that had yet to fully materialize.
<pre><code>Finding opportunities at that stage is notoriously difficult. By the time most investors hear about a company, much of the explosive growth has already happened. That doesn’t mean you’re out of options. The key to unlocking your next windfall is developing a repeatable process to find those promising businesses *before* they become household names. However, doing this alone is essentially a full-time job. It can be hard to find the time to do this research between work and family. This is when a little help might be appropriate. </code></pre>Moby offers expert research and recommendations backed by former hedge fund analysts, helping investors uncover long-term opportunities without spending hours digging through financial statements and earnings reports.
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Read More: Thanks to Jeff Bezos, you can become a landlord for $100 — without the headache of actually being one
<pre><code> ## Most investors won’t find a 50-bagger, but they don’t need to </code></pre>In reality, most long-term wealth isn’t built through a single moonshot. Though we all want to believe our next investment is the one that’ll make a life-changing amount of money, even large institutional investors with extensive research teams experience setbacks along the way.
<pre><code>SpaceX may prove to be one of the most successful investments in the fund’s history. Other bets haven’t worked out nearly as well. After investing $95 million in FTX (6), the same Ontario-based pension fund eventually wrote the entire position down to zero following the crypto exchange’s collapse. </code></pre>One investment may have generated billions in gains. The other became a complete loss.
That’s one reason it’s important to stay consistent. A portfolio spread across a couple of strong core investments can reduce the impact of any single mistake while still allowing investors to participate in long-term market growth.
For investors who struggle to stay consistent, there’s Acorns. It’s the investing app that helps users put money to work automatically and is tailored to your risk tolerance, but leaning towards safety.
By rounding up everyday purchases and investing the spare change into a diversified portfolio, Acorns helps you unlock compounding wealth without a second thought.
<pre><code>For example, if you spend $3.25 on a coffee, Acorns can round the purchase up to $4 and invest the remaining 75 cents. Those small contributions can add up over months and years without requiring major changes to your budget. </code></pre>The platform also allows users to make recurring investments, helping them build long-term investing habits instead of trying to guess which stock could become the next SpaceX. This is sometimes called dollar cost averaging.
Even better, sign up today, and you can get a $20 bonus investment to help jumpstart your portfolio.
That said, pension funds rarely rely on equities alone. Big portfolios often include a mix of alternative investments — from private businesses and infrastructure projects to real estate.
<pre><code> ## Private markets aren’t the only way to access alternative assets </code></pre>Most Americans can’t buy into a company like SpaceX years before its IPO. That doesn’t mean alternative investments are entirely out of reach.
Real estate, for example, has historically played an important role in diversified portfolios, generating income through rent while offering the potential for long-term appreciation. PWL Capital (7) even went so far as to name it the “Best Investment in History.”
<pre><code>And if you aren’t ready to jump into homeownership (financially or otherwise), there are platforms like Arrived that let you buy stakes in rental properties, earn dividends and skip the responsibilities of property management. </code></pre>Backed by world-class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived’s easy-to-use platform offers SEC-qualified investments such as rental homes and vacation rentals for as little as $100.
Their flexible investment options allow both accredited and non-accredited investors to benefit from this inflation-hedging asset class with ease.
You start by browsing vetted properties, then you simply select a property and choose the number of shares to buy.
And for a limited time, when you open an account and add $1,000 or more, Arrived will credit your account with a 1% match.
Now, real estate isn’t the only asset you can turn to when market valuations are on the fritz.
<pre><code> ## SpaceX believers aren’t the only ones placing big bets </code></pre>Not everyone is convinced SpaceX deserves its reported valuation.
Analysts at Morningstar (8) have suggested the company may be worth substantially less than its IPO target, highlighting the uncertainty that often surrounds fast-growing companies. They peg it at $63 a share, a “53% discount.” This is far below the launch price of $135 per share, per CNBC (9).
<pre><code>That’s not unusual. Throughout market history, periods of excitement around emerging technologies have often been accompanied by debates about whether investors are overly optimistic. </code></pre>Some investors embrace that risk in pursuit of higher returns. Others look for assets that have historically served a different role within a portfolio.
Gold, for example, has often attracted investors seeking a hedge against inflation, currency weakness and periods of market volatility.
One way to invest in gold that also offers significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with Priority Gold’s help.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold and making it an attractive option for those looking to hedge their retirement funds against economic uncertainty.
To learn more, you can get a free information guide that includes details on how to get up to $10,000 in free silver on qualifying purchases
<pre><code> ## You May Also Like Join 250,000+ readers and get Moneywise’s best stories and exclusive interviews first — clear insights curated and delivered weekly. **Subscribe now.** ### Article Sources </code></pre>We rely only on vetted sources and credible third-party reporting. For details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (1), (3), (6); Forbes (2); Morgan Stanley (4); Bloomberg (5); PWL Capital (7); Contentstack (8); CNBC (9)
This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Realized returns from a SpaceX IPO depend on multiple contingent factors; a trillion-dollar target does not guarantee meaningful gains for early investors like OTPP."
The piece treats a SpaceX IPO as an almost guaranteed windfall for early private investors, but it glosses over critical frictions: no official IPO date, private valuations not equal to public pricing, Musk's control (potential dual-class structure), SpaceX's ongoing capital needs (e.g., Starlink), and significant liquidity/dilution risks for large pension stakes. Even if an IPO occurs, venture-like multiples rarely translate to public-market pricing; lockups, secondary sales, and market timing can dramatically affect realized gains. The article also folds marketing inserts (e.g., Acorns, real estate platforms) into the thesis, which muddies the investment substance and omits regulatory and valuation skeptics’ concerns.
The strongest counterpoint is that, if SpaceX actually IPOs at or near the claimed multi-trillion valuation and demand remains robust, early investors could still reap meaningful gains despite some dilution and timing risk. The article underplays upside risk if pricing and market conditions prove favorable.
"The massive paper gains on SpaceX are structurally offset by the high-risk, high-failure nature of the venture-growth asset class, as evidenced by the fund's total loss on FTX."
The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP) success story is a classic case of survivorship bias. While the 50x return on SpaceX is eye-catching, the article conveniently buries the lead: the $95 million loss on FTX. This illustrates the extreme volatility of private equity and venture-style bets within a pension fund's mandate. For retail investors, the takeaway isn't that they should seek 'the next SpaceX' via newsletters or apps, but rather that institutional-grade alternative assets often come with binary outcomes. SpaceX’s valuation hinges on Starlink’s cash flow and Starship’s launch cadence; if the IPO hits a $1.75T valuation, it implies an aggressive pricing of future orbital dominance that ignores launch competition from Blue Origin and Rocket Lab.
If SpaceX achieves a monopoly-like status in orbital logistics and satellite internet, the $1.75T valuation might actually prove conservative, making the pension fund's early entry look like a bargain rather than a lucky gamble.
"The article never specifies whether $1.75T is equity or enterprise value, making the $11.6B pension gain calculation unverifiable and likely inflated for clickbait."
This article conflates two separate things: OTPP's realized paper gain on a pre-IPO SpaceX stake, and investment advice for retail investors. The $11.6B figure assumes a $1.75T valuation materializes—which Morningstar disputes at $63/share (implying ~$30B equity value, not $1.75T). The article never clarifies whether that $1.75T is enterprise value or equity value, or whether OTPP's stake dilution from subsequent rounds is factored in. More critically, the article uses this one win to pitch retail investors on finding 'the next SpaceX'—ignoring that OTPP also lost $95M entirely on FTX. Survivorship bias masquerading as investment thesis.
If SpaceX genuinely commands $1.75T valuation at IPO (justified by Starship commercialization, Starlink TAM, and defense contracts), OTPP's returns aren't anomalous—they're rational pricing discovery. Early-stage aerospace bets may be systematically underpriced by public markets.
"Uncertain IPO timing and analyst skepticism around SpaceX's $1T+ target valuation undermine the article's implied promise of easy access to comparable moonshots."
The article hypes OTPP's 2019 SpaceX stake as a potential 51x winner at a $1T+ IPO valuation while pivoting to paid promotions for Acorns, Arrived, and gold IRAs. This ignores key gaps: SpaceX has no confirmed IPO date or price, Morningstar values it at a 53% discount to the rumored launch price, and the fund already wrote off its entire FTX position. Private-market skewness data shows such outliers are rare; most investors chasing similar 'pre-IPO' exposure via platforms face illiquidity, high fees, and selection bias rather than repeatable 5,000% gains.
Even at Morningstar's lower $63/share mark, OTPP's position would still deliver roughly 10-12x returns on the original $220M, preserving the core narrative of outsized venture payoffs for early institutional backers.
"Morningstar's discount alone misreads risk; SpaceX's IPO upside is far less certain once dilution, capex, regulatory hurdles, and governance effects are counted."
Grok, your '10-12x' takeaway rests on a $1T+ IPO price that may never materialize; even if it does, private gains rarely translate cleanly to public markets. SpaceX faces ongoing Starlink capex, Starship cadence risk, ITAR/regulatory hurdles, and potential governance drag from a dual-class structure. Morningstar's discount is not a predictor of realized returns once dilution, secondary sales, and market timing are counted. The upside is far less certain than the math implies.
"The potential for a dual-class share structure makes the '50x' narrative misleading for retail investors who would lack voting control."
Claude, you hit the critical valuation discrepancy, but we must address the 'governance discount.' Even if SpaceX hits a $1.75T valuation, public shareholders will likely be buying non-voting shares. Musk’s history of prioritizing long-term R&D over quarterly earnings—often at the expense of stock price volatility—suggests that retail investors chasing this 'win' will face a permanent liquidity trap. The real risk isn't just the valuation; it's the lack of shareholder power in a potential public entity.
"SpaceX's IPO structure likely locks retail investors into perpetual capex funding with no voting power—the opposite of a 'win.'"
Gemini's governance discount is real, but it assumes public shareholders have recourse—they don't. The sharper risk: SpaceX's capex intensity (Starlink, Starship) means even at $1.75T valuation, free cash flow may remain negative for years. A non-voting public shareholder funds R&D while Musk retains control. This isn't a liquidity trap; it's a structural wealth transfer. OTPP's 50x assumes an exit; retail buyers get permanent subordination.
"OTPP's outsized return relies on preferential terms retail public shareholders cannot replicate."
Claude correctly flags capex drag but misses how OTPP's early preferred shares likely include liquidation preferences and anti-dilution protections that retail buyers of non-voting public stock will lack entirely. This asymmetry means OTPP's 50x is partly contractual, not just valuation-driven, while public holders absorb ongoing Starlink/Starship burn without similar safeguards even if an IPO clears at $1T+.
The panel generally agrees that the article overhypes SpaceX's potential IPO, glossing over significant risks and uncertainties. They caution against retail investors chasing 'the next SpaceX' based on OTPP's success story, as it may not translate to public markets and comes with substantial risks.
Potential high returns if SpaceX successfully executes on its projects and the IPO materializes at the rumored valuation.
Lack of shareholder power in a potential public entity with a dual-class structure and ongoing capital needs (Starlink, Starship) that may result in negative free cash flow for years.