SpaceX's AI Business Is Booming. Here's How Much Analysts Expect It to Generate by 2030

Key Points

• SpaceX's connectivity segment is its largest business unit today, but artificial intelligence (AI) is growing at a much more rapid pace.
• By 2030, the company's AI business could be generating $275 billion, according to analyst projections.
• SpaceX remains unprofitable, however, and its bottom line may need to improve significantly for its valuation to remain as high as it is.
• 10 stocks we like better than Space Exploration Technologies ›

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) went public a few months ago, and while it may be known for its rockets and plans to send people to Mars, the company's artificial intelligence (AI) business is what's driving its growth right now. The company has been securing deals involving AI compute power, and that's been a key way the business, which also goes by just SpaceX, plans to get to an annualized revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of this year.

The massive growth that SpaceX is experiencing right now is primarily due to AI. Here's a look at just how big analysts expect the AI segment to get by 2030.

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Analysts expect $275 billion in annual AI revenue from SpaceX by the end of the decade

Massive growth is what investors and analysts expect from SpaceX. That's why, despite a lack of profitability, its valuation is around $2 trillion. Investors are paying a colossal premium for the business based on how big and profitable it might get in the future, with space, AI, and its Starlink internet business all being possible growth machines for the overall business.

In the company's most recent quarter, which ended on June 30, SpaceX's AI revenue totaled $2.6 billion, translating into an annual run rate of about $10.2 billion. But by 2027, Wall Street expects the company's AI revenue to top $67 billion. And by 2030, the revenue is forecasted to reach an incredible $275 billion. This is just the company's AI business, but it's a fast-growing one and likely to be its largest segment in the future. Its connectivity segment, which includes Starlink, generated $4.3 billion last quarter and was still its largest for now; the space business generated $962 million.

SpaceX's revenue growth looks promising, but profitability remains a bigger question mark

There's little doubt that SpaceX's business will get much bigger than where it is today. CEO Elon Musk previously projected that the company might generate as much as $1 trillion by 2030. However, that doesn't appear likely unless the AI business becomes far larger than what analysts expect or the other business units grow at even faster rates. Nonetheless, there's ample growth on the horizon for SpaceX.

What shouldn't be overlooked, however, is profitability. Growth is great, but the most valuable companies in the world are also producing significant profits. SpaceX remains unprofitable, and if it's to remain a top growth stock, it'll likely need much stronger numbers on the bottom line. Its net loss last quarter was $541 million. Although that was an improvement from the $1 billion loss it incurred a year ago, it still has a long way to go to get to breakeven. And with the company spending heavily on AI, its losses may potentially increase in the future, which could make this a bit of a risky growth stock to own.

The stock is promising, but it's also incredibly overvalued

SpaceX's growth potential is what captivates investors. But if the space company isn't able to also generate significant profits, then its valuation may inevitably fall lower, especially if it needs to constantly raise capital to fund its expensive growth opportunities.

At $2 trillion, SpaceX is the only stock in the trillion-dollar club that isn't profitable. That's why I don't believe it belongs there, and why it could be vulnerable to a significant decline in the future. The stock is still new and exciting, but I don't expect it to stay at such a high valuation. With plenty of downside risk, SpaceX is a stock that I think many investors are better off steering clear of, at least until it can show a path to profitability.

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David Jagielski, CPA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.