The panel is divided on the timing and extent of memory price correction, with some expecting a downturn by 2027 and others seeing sustained shortages until 2030. The key variable is CXMT's ability to ramp up production and achieve yield parity with the Big 3.
Risk: Geopolitical risks, such as U.S. export controls, could bifurcate the market and protect Big 3 pricing power longer than expected.
Opportunity: If CXMT achieves technical parity and avoids geopolitical restrictions, it could displace the Big 3 in global supply chains, leading to price declines.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
At long last, the memory bubble may be finally bursting.
According to Jason Chen, chairman and CEO of Taiwanese PC and IT hardware giant, Acer, prices for memory chips will start reversing in the latter …
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"Supply Shortage Problem Has Disappeared": Acer CEO Says Memory Prices To Decline In 2027 As CXMT Starts Mass Production Of New Chip Platform
At long last, the memory bubble may be finally bursting.
According to Jason Chen, chairman and CEO of Taiwanese PC and IT hardware giant, Acer, prices for memory chips will start reversing in the latter half of next year, dismissing the memory cartel pardon Big 3 claim that chip prices will keep rising well beyond 2027, and bucking the popular narrative which expects no declines in chip prices for the foreseeable future.
According to United Daily News, Chen said that only high-end DDR5 parts like LPDDR5X-9600 and niche CPUs like Nvidia’s N1 and N1X chips are in short supply. Since supplier pricing lags consumer pricing by about a few months, he added that PC prices will still rise between 5% and 20% towards the end of this year, plateau by the first half of 2027, before finally declining after years of AI-drive hikes.
The AI boom has driven shortages for various PC components, beginning with GPUs in late 2022, before expanding to memory chips by late 2025. This made memory prices climb 500% in 12 months, although the increases have finally cooled as consumers refuse to absorb further hikes.
Some memory companies like SK Hynix are saying that the shortage will be worse next year and that it won’t be until 2030 before pricing will start to normalize. The Adata chief even said that the DRAM shortage would last another 10 years. This is plausibly true, especially as HBM demand from AI hyperscalers remains strong, and the various memory chip fabs under construction aren’t expected to come online until the 2030s.
However, Chen disagreed with this take. He said that the major memory suppliers naturally want to keep their margins as high as possible for longer, and the reason memory makers keep coming out and saying "the price uptrend will continue into 2027" is that antitrust rules prevent them from coordinating prices directly, so they use public statements to send a kind of "signal" to one another “so they keep putting out the message: let me tell you, prices won’t come down until the year 20-whatever.”
The Acer chairperson argued that there’s already ample memory and SSD supplies, while the purported CPU shortage is now limited to specific models: "No. How could it stay short forever? Chinese capacity keeps coming onto the market. The supply shortage problem has already completely disappeared."
Chen also expects the cost of the SSDs and memory Acer holds in 2027 to be lower than this year. If that gets reflected in end product prices, he sees a possibility that prices at least stop rising and stabilize in the second half of next year. The Acer CEO said prices could be raised further in Q1 27 as well. But since this is a period of pricing chaos, he expects the size of the increases to gradually shrink. He estimates component prices could peak around the middle of 2027, when the capacity that chipmakers have added is expected to start running in earnest.
After that, prices would stabilize, and whether they can actually come down in the second half remains to be seen. He admitted, though, that nobody can know the exact timing of the reversal. Chen said PC selling prices coming back down is strictly "a hope."
He also added that Chinese memory makers churning out cheaper alternatives would disrupt the market - something that SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won feared. In fact, Acer, alongside HP and Asus, has started using CXMT chips in some of its products, while some Lenovo models sold in Germany were found to have YMTC SSDs.
Nevertheless, he said that price increases are becoming their own trend, saying that SSDs, PCBs, and fiberglass cloth used in motherboards are seeing their own hikes. “A lot of people come and tell us they want to raise prices, and we find it a bit baffling — this needs to go up, too?” Chen said to the reporters.
He wrapped up by saying this chain of price hikes creates inflation (according to Goldman, rising memory prices will push core PCE higher by 0.5%) which in turn pushes central banks to raise rates, and that "this is not a normal phenomenon."
As Tom's Hardware summarizes, the overall tenor from Chen is good news for long-suffering PC enthusiasts if computer manufacturers could finally lower prices after years of shortages and expensive parts.
Certainly happy to take advantage of the soaring profit margins, China's best IPO of the decade, DRAM chipmaker CXMT, said on Sunday its fifth-generation technology platform had entered mass production, a claimed breakthrough that could help China build a stronger competitor to Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology in the global market for memory chips.
The new platform is designed to make more powerful memory chips at lower cost and with less power use, Reuters reported. CXMT, which earlier this year listed on Shanghai's STAR Market, said it would give electronics makers an additional source of supply for chips used in smartphones and other devices. The company is currently the 4th largest DRAM maker in the world - but rapidly growing - after the Big-3 cartel of Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron.
CXMT, China's leading producer of DRAM, said the new platform packs the tiny structures that store data closer together, allowing more memory to fit on each chip and more individual chips to be made from each silicon wafer.
The Hefei-based memory-chip maker said it had reduced the spacing of key features in the part of the chip that stores data to 11.95 nanometres, or about 12 billionths of a metre.
It achieved this using "quadruple patterning," a process that repeats several manufacturing steps to produce finer circuit patterns.
"Our process capability is now on par with the most advanced mass-produced nodes out there in the industry," Luo Xiaodong, CXMT's vice president and head of its marketing centre, said at the 2026 World Manufacturing Convention in Hefei.
CXMT also unveiled two 24-gigabit LPDDR5X products made on the new platform. LPDDR5X is a power-saving type of DRAM used mainly in smartphones and other portable electronics. The products each hold 50% more data than CXMT's previous equivalent products and are already in mass production, the company said. They are offered in two package formats for different smartphone and portable-device designs.
CXMT said the platform can produce at least 50% more gross chip dies per wafer than its fourth-generation platform, using an 8-gigabit-chip baseline. That measures the potential number of chips made from a wafer before defective units are excluded, rather than the proportion that pass final testing.
CXMT said it developed the platform using computer simulations and joint work with Chinese chip-equipment makers on critical production steps.
The advance comes as Beijing seeks to reduce reliance on foreign semiconductor technology and US export controls since 2022 have restricted China's access to certain advanced chipmaking equipment and related software.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 09/21/2026 - 22:33
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
Opening Takes
“Memory prices are unlikely to meaningfully fall in 2027; AI-driven demand and ramp risks imply a later, tentative or muted correction rather than a clear turn lower in 2H 2027.”
The Acer interview frames a clear flip in memory pricing tied to CXMT's mass production and fading shortages. But it rests on one CEO's view and cherry-picked signals. Memory demand remains AI/data-center-driven, not just PC cycles, and ramp timing/yield of CXMT’s platform is uncertain. The antitrust signaling argument is speculative. Even with new capacity, prices depend on the complex balance of DRAM/NAND demand, capex cycles, and geopolitics; a meaningful correction in 2027 could be delayed or muted, and broadened cost pressures may keep memory costs sticky even as some components rise.
The strongest counterpoint is that AI/data-center demand may stay robust or accelerate, and if CXMT ramps faster with solid yields, memory prices could begin to fall in 2027 sooner than the bear case expects.
“The memory market is bifurcating into a commoditized DRAM segment vulnerable to Chinese supply and a high-margin HBM segment that remains structurally insulated from current price-reversal forecasts.”
Jason Chen’s commentary suggests a classic 'commodity cycle' peak, but investors should be wary of conflating legacy DRAM supply with the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) bottleneck. While CXMT’s 12nm-class process is a significant technical milestone, it primarily addresses the commodity DRAM market, not the AI-critical HBM3e/4 capacity currently driving the outsized margins for SK Hynix and Micron. If Acer is pivoting to Chinese silicon, it’s a margin-protection play, not necessarily a sign that the AI-driven supply crunch is over. I expect a bifurcation: commodity memory prices will likely soften by 2027 as Chinese capacity scales, but HBM remains a high-barrier oligopoly with pricing power likely to persist well beyond Chen’s timeline.
If CXMT successfully scales advanced packaging alongside these new DRAM nodes, they could rapidly commoditize the entire memory stack, forcing a broader price collapse that even HBM premiums cannot insulate.
“Price relief hinges entirely on whether CXMT's 5G platform achieves stated yields and volume by mid-2027—a claim no third party has validated and which contradicts the Big 3's public guidance.”
Chen's timeline (price peak mid-2027, decline H2 2027) directly contradicts SK Hynix and Adata's 2030+ forecasts. The critical variable is whether CXMT's 5G platform actually achieves claimed 50% die-per-wafer gains at scale—if yield rates disappoint or ramp slower than promised, Chinese supply won't materialize fast enough to break the Big 3's pricing power. Chen has incentive to talk down prices (Acer's input costs); memory makers have incentive to talk them up. The article doesn't address whether CXMT's quadruple-patterning process can sustain sub-12nm yields profitably, or if geopolitical restrictions on Chinese chipmaking equipment accelerate further, constraining their ramp.
CXMT's mass production claim is unverified by independent sources, and Chinese DRAM makers have repeatedly overpromised on node transitions; even if yields work, the Big 3 can simply reduce capex and let spot prices stabilize rather than collapse, protecting margins indefinitely.
“CXMT's ramp threatens to break the memory oligopoly's pricing power by late 2027.”
Acer CEO Jason Chen's forecast that memory prices will peak mid-2027 and then ease rests on CXMT's new 11.95nm platform entering volume production of LPDDR5X, adding at least 50% more dies per wafer. This directly challenges the Big 3 narrative of sustained shortages into 2030. Yet Chen's view as a buyer may understate how much of the added Chinese capacity will be absorbed by domestic smartphone demand or face export restrictions. PC assemblers could see component costs stabilize or fall, but only if CXMT achieves yields and quality parity fast enough to displace Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron in global supply chains.
US export controls on advanced equipment could cap CXMT's actual output growth well below the claimed 50% die-per-wafer gain, leaving the Big 3's HBM-driven pricing power intact through 2028.
The Debate
Responding to Grok
“Export controls and equipment bottlenecks can cap CXMT's ramp, making a rapid 2027 price collapse unlikely and preserving Big 3 pricing power through 2028.”
You're overstating the odds of a swift DRAM downturn on the back of CXMT. Even if CXMT hits the claimed 50% die-per-wafer gains, export controls and limited equipment (EUV, immersion lithography) constrain actual ramp speed and wafer-year capacity. Packaging, yield, and fab utilization will also matter. The risk is policy and capex bottlenecks keep Big 3 pricing power intact through 2028, not a 2027 price collapse.
Responding to Gemini
“Geopolitical export controls will likely bifurcate the memory market, preventing a global price collapse even if CXMT achieves technical yield parity.”
Gemini and Grok are ignoring the 'China Discount' risk. Even if CXMT achieves technical parity, global OEMs like Acer face massive geopolitical friction. If the U.S. expands Entity List restrictions to include any device containing CXMT memory, Acer’s 'margin-protection' play becomes a supply chain liability. The pricing impact won't be driven by pure supply-demand equilibrium, but by trade policy bifurcating the market. A price collapse in China could coexist with price inflation elsewhere due to forced supply chain decoupling.
Responding to Gemini
“Geopolitical fragmentation may compress global memory prices faster than a unified market scenario, not slower.”
Gemini's 'China Discount' bifurcation risk is the sharpest point yet, but it cuts both ways. If U.S. export controls tighten, CXMT memory floods domestic Chinese OEMs (Xiaomi, Oppo, BYD), reducing their reliance on Big 3 imports and freeing up global supply for Western buyers. That could paradoxically accelerate price declines outside China. The real question: does supply destruction in one region offset demand destruction in another?
Responding to Claude
“Export-driven bifurcation strands CXMT output domestically and shields Big 3 margins rather than accelerating global price declines.”
Claude's claim that CXMT flooding domestic Chinese OEMs would free global supply for Western buyers overlooks Acer's own exposure. If Entity List expansions target any CXMT-containing devices, Acer and similar assemblers face immediate disqualification from U.S. channels, stranding incremental Chinese wafers inside China rather than displacing Samsung or SK Hynix volumes abroad. The bifurcation Gemini flagged therefore protects Big 3 pricing power longer, not shorter.
Panel Verdict
NEUTRAL No ConsensusThe panel is divided on the timing and extent of memory price correction, with some expecting a downturn by 2027 and others seeing sustained shortages until 2030. The key variable is CXMT's ability to ramp up production and achieve yield parity with the Big 3.
If CXMT achieves technical parity and avoids geopolitical restrictions, it could displace the Big 3 in global supply chains, leading to price declines.
Geopolitical risks, such as U.S. export controls, could bifurcate the market and protect Big 3 pricing power longer than expected.
This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.