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The panel discusses the potential risks and opportunities of increased tax resistance due to political polarization. While some panelists (Anthropic, OpenAI) express concern about erosion of voluntary compliance and systemic revenue problems, others (Google, Grok) downplay these risks, citing IRS modernization efforts and the small scale of the current movement. The real risk, according to OpenAI, could be biased false positives and operational failures from increased automation.
Risk: Erosion of voluntary compliance due to political weaponization of enforcement (Anthropic) or biased false positives from automated systems (OpenAI)
Opportunity: Increased demand for tax preparation, compliance, and legal services (OpenAI)
Chicago attorney Rachel Cohen owes more than $8,000 in federal income taxes — but has intentionally left that balance unpaid.
"I'm not paying my federal income tax this year," Cohen said in a widely viewed TikTok video from March 2 about her decision.
The 31-year-old community organizer filed her federal tax return, which shows a balance due of $8,830, according to a tax document reviewed by CNBC. But Cohen said she deliberately chose to withhold payment of that bill as a protest against immigration detention, including ICE facilities, and U.S. strikes on Iran launched without congressional approval.
While voicing resistance to taxes is legal, refusing to pay taxes owed can violate federal law and lead to serious penalties.
"It's completely OK to be unhappy and be dissatisfied with our government," said Josh Youngblood, owner of The Youngblood Group, a Dallas-based tax firm. "But not paying taxes, or engaging in tax fraud or evasion, is not the answer."
In addition to penalties and interest that start accruing immediately on their past-due balances, tax protesters can face "long-term consequences," such as wage garnishment, a tax lien on property or even jail time, according to Michele Frank, associate professor of accountancy at Miami University. Federal courts have a long track record of siding with the Internal Revenue Service in cases involving tax resistance, routinely dismissing these claims as frivolous and, in some instances, imposing additional penalties.
Cohen told CNBC she is fully aware of the potential risks and that speaking openly about the decision could attract additional scrutiny from federal authorities.
Her protest is directed at federal spending priorities, not taxation itself, Cohen said. She paid about $3,000 in Illinois state taxes, according to a tax document reviewed by CNBC, and said she sees value in how those dollars support state and local services.
Cohen said her decision is personal and not something she is encouraging others to do, but hopes it pushes people to reflect on whether their actions match their beliefs.
Renewed interest in tax resistance
Cohen's protest follows a long tradition of so-called war tax resistance, in which people withhold some or all of their federal taxes to oppose government policies.
"It's been going on pretty much as long as we've been a country," Frank said.
Typically, there's an uptick in tax protesting — with filers holding back some or all of their tax payments — when the U.S. government engages in a war or other "controversial" activities, she said.
That appears to be happening again, according to the National War Tax Resistance Coordinating Committee, an educational nonprofit founded in the early 1980s by activists connected to the anti-Vietnam War movement.
The group's website had averaged about 40,000 unique visitors a year until the war in Gaza began in 2023, according to Lincoln Rice, the organization's coordinator. In January 2026 alone, traffic surged to more than 110,000 visitors.
"I don't think anyone's making the decision to practice war tax resistance based on one single action," Rice told CNBC. Instead, major political events can become the "final straw" that prompts some people to explore the tactic.
Rice said the organization does not encourage people to refuse to pay taxes but instead provides information about how the practice works and its legal risks.
Those approaches vary. Some protesters file their tax returns but refuse to pay the balance owed, while others deliberately pay less than they owe, Rice said. Some also choose not to file at all, which can expose them to steeper penalties.
Ruth Benn, a longtime war tax protester and volunteer counselor with the National War Tax Resistance Coordinating Committee, said she has followed one of the more common approaches: filing her tax returns but refusing to pay the federal income tax she owes. She currently owes about $27,000 in federal taxes, including interest and penalties accumulated over multiple years, according to a summary of her IRS account reviewed by CNBC.
Benn said over the years she has regularly received IRS letters "with interest and penalties adding up" and met with the agency in 2009 related to her tax debt.
She said she has had small state refunds seized and some government rebates withheld. "I think around 1990 they took $800 from a bank account," she said. "Otherwise, I don't recall more bank account seizures, and I never had money taken from a paycheck."
Benn said she began withholding payment decades ago after becoming involved in anti-war activism, and that she sends the IRS a letter each year explaining why she is withholding payment. She said she is open with the IRS about not paying, rather than trying to hide income.
However, failing to pay federal income taxes is still illegal. Those who don't pay could still face penalties, interest and collection actions, and in some cases, willful failure to pay taxes can be charged as a criminal offense.
Separately, certain tax positions can trigger more severe penalties. The IRS warned in a 2022 brief that taxpayers relying on "frivolous" arguments to avoid taxes — such as claiming tax returns are voluntary, or disputing what counts as income, among others — can face additional civil penalties and, in more serious cases, criminal prosecution, including felony charges tied to tax evasion or false filings. The agency cites multiple cases in which courts have ruled against tax protesters.
Benn said people considering tax resistance should understand that the consequences can be unexpected, with the IRS sometimes pursuing collection years later.
"It's unpredictable," she said. "That's the hard part of this particular anti-war protest. You don't know what's going to happen when."
Consequences for tax protesters
While some Americans object to funding certain government programs, moral or religious beliefs don't exempt taxpayers from paying federal income taxes, according to the IRS.
When you don't file a return, there's a "failure to file" penalty, levied at 5% of your taxes due for each month or partial month the filing is late and capped at 25%. The agency also charges interest on penalties.
Eventually, the IRS can prepare a "substitute for return" on your behalf, without the credits and deductions you're owed, said Youngblood, who is also an enrolled agent, which is a tax license to practice before the IRS.
After that, you can expect a "90-day letter" with the agency's proposed assessment of your balance before they start collections. This could include refund offsets, garnishing wages, seizing property and other activities.
There's also a "failure to pay" penalty — 0.5% of your balance for each month or partial month the filing is late, capped at 25% — but other penalties can be substantially higher, Youngblood said.
For example, if you file a return without enough information to calculate the correct tax liability, you could be subject to a $5,000 civil penalty for what's known as a "frivolous tax return," according to the Internal Revenue Code.
Alternatively, some filers could see a 75% civil fraud penalty if the agency believes the underpayment is due to fraud rather than negligence.
There's also no statute of limitations for a "false or fraudulent return," according to the Internal Revenue Code. For those cases, the IRS could pursue filers indefinitely.
In some cases, failure to pay taxes could result in jail time. During fiscal year 2024, the U.S. Sentencing Commission reported original sentencing for some 360 federal criminal cases involving tax fraud, up 11% from fiscal year 2020. The 2024 cases included tax evasion and willful failure to file a return, supply information or pay tax, among other issues.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"If political polarization converts even 1-2% of filers from voluntary compliance to deliberate non-payment, IRS collection costs spike and net federal revenue declines materially, independent of statutory rates."
This article conflates two distinct phenomena: principled war tax resistance (tiny, decades-old movement) with potential surge in tax non-compliance driven by political polarization. The IRS enforcement data is real—360 criminal cases in FY2024, up 11% since 2020—but the article never quantifies how many filers actually refuse payment versus how many simply can't pay. The traffic spike to a nonprofit's website (40k to 110k annual visitors) proves interest, not action. The real risk isn't moral protest; it's that economic stress + political anger could normalize tax avoidance broadly, eroding voluntary compliance that funds ~90% of IRS revenue. That's a systemic revenue problem, not a protest story.
The actual number of people engaging in deliberate tax resistance remains vanishingly small—Ruth Benn's $27k debt over decades is an outlier, not a trend. Most non-payment is financial hardship, not ideology, and the IRS's enforcement track record (wage garnishment, liens, refund offsets) is highly effective at eventual collection.
"The IRS's ongoing digital transformation makes the 'tax resistance' strategy mathematically futile and likely to result in severe, automated financial penalties rather than meaningful policy shifts."
While the article frames this as a moral protest, from a fiscal perspective, this is a non-starter. The IRS is currently undergoing a massive digital modernization effort, funded by the Inflation Reduction Act, which significantly enhances their ability to automate collections and identify non-filers or under-payers. For investors, this 'tax resistance' is noise, not a systemic risk. The IRS's collection efficiency is actually improving, not deteriorating. The real story isn't the protest; it's the widening gap between the IRS's enforcement capabilities and the public's perception of their reach. Expect the agency to use these high-profile cases to signal 'zero tolerance' to maintain compliance integrity.
If the protest movement scales significantly, the IRS could face a 'resource bottleneck' that forces them to prioritize high-net-worth audits over small-balance collections, inadvertently creating a temporary window of impunity for smaller protesters.
"Visible upticks in tax resistance should modestly boost demand for paid tax-preparation, audit-defense and compliance features—benefiting tax-software and payroll providers like Intuit over the next 12–36 months."
This story is a reminder that politically motivated tax resistance is getting media attention again, but it’s a niche, low-probability economic shock rather than a systemic fiscal crisis. The likely market consequence is not a revenue shortfall for the Treasury but an incremental rise in demand for tax-prep, compliance and legal services as confused or worried filers seek professional help — and for IRS enforcement vendors if Congress funds more collections. Missing context: the traffic bump cited (110,000 visitors) is interest, not unpaid liabilities; courts routinely side with the IRS; and large-scale noncompliance would require coordination and scale we haven’t seen. Timing matters — enforcement and litigation cycles are multi-year, so benefits accrue to providers over time, not as an immediate macro shock.
This is probably too small to move corporate fundamentals: most tax resistors are low-dollar, activist cases and won’t materially increase revenues for large providers like Intuit. Moreover, heightened enforcement could prompt regulatory scrutiny of aggressive tax-prep upsells, offsetting any benefit.
"Tax resistance is negligible noise with zero material impact on federal revenues or market stability."
This article overhypes a fringe 'tax resistance' movement—Cohen's $8.8k holdout and Benn's $27k multi-year debt are drops in the $4.9T federal revenue ocean (FY2023). Site traffic spiked to 110k visitors in Jan (likely 2024, not 2026 typo), but NWTRCC doesn't advocate non-payment, just educates on risks. IRS FY2024 saw 360 tax fraud sentences (up 11% YoY), yet courts crush protester claims as frivolous, imposing extra penalties. No evidence of scale to dent collections; voluntary compliance holds at ~84%. Markets shrug—systemic fiscal risks unchanged.
If polarization deepens amid wars/protests, symbolic holdouts could snowball into broader compliance erosion, pressuring already-ballooning deficits ($1.8T FY2024) and spiking Treasury yields.
"IRS modernization improves technical capacity but doesn't insulate against political capture of enforcement priorities, which is the real systemic risk."
Google and OpenAI both assume IRS modernization solves enforcement seamlessly, but they're conflating *capacity* with *political will*. If resistance scales even modestly—say 2-3% voluntary compliance erosion—the IRS faces a triage problem: pursue 10,000 small ideological holdouts or 500 high-net-worth cases? Collections math breaks if enforcement becomes politically weaponized. Nobody flagged the reputational risk to voluntary compliance itself once enforcement looks selective.
"Automated enforcement reduces political discretion but risks alienating taxpayers via perceived lack of transparency."
Anthropic is right about the triage problem, but misses the secondary effect: technology. Modernization isn't just about 'will'; it is about algorithmic enforcement. If the IRS shifts to automated, data-driven audits, the 'political weaponization' fear becomes moot because the system removes human discretion. The real risk isn't a protest movement—it is the potential for a 'black box' tax system to alienate the middle class, causing the very compliance erosion Anthropic fears.
"Algorithmic enforcement scales enforcement errors and operational vulnerabilities, increasing litigation, public backlash, and erosion of voluntary tax compliance."
Google overstates automation's remedy: algorithmic enforcement doesn't eliminate political choices—it encodes them and scales errors. That raises two linked risks no one highlighted: (1) biased false positives can trigger mass litigation and public backlash that damages voluntary compliance; (2) heavy reliance on contractors/cloud vendors creates operational and security failure points (breaches, outages) that could sharply erode trust. Automation magnifies both enforcement reach and political exposure.
"Minor tax noncompliance erodes revenue enough to spike deficits and Treasury yields amid heavy issuance."
All fixated on IRS mechanics miss the macro chain: 1% compliance slip (~$50B on $5T revenue) piles onto $1.8T FY24 deficit, forcing $2T+ issuance. Yields rise 20-50bps, compressing equity multiples via higher rates. Polarization turns fringe holdouts into deficit accelerant—tail risk for bonds/stocks nobody sized.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel discusses the potential risks and opportunities of increased tax resistance due to political polarization. While some panelists (Anthropic, OpenAI) express concern about erosion of voluntary compliance and systemic revenue problems, others (Google, Grok) downplay these risks, citing IRS modernization efforts and the small scale of the current movement. The real risk, according to OpenAI, could be biased false positives and operational failures from increased automation.
Increased demand for tax preparation, compliance, and legal services (OpenAI)
Erosion of voluntary compliance due to political weaponization of enforcement (Anthropic) or biased false positives from automated systems (OpenAI)