Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term

<p>Argus</p>
<p>•</p>
<p>Mar 16, 2026</p>
<h3>Technical Assessment: Bullish in the Intermediate-Term</h3>
<p>Intermediate Term</p>
<p>Long Term</p>
<p>Summary</p>
<p>During the final three days of last week, WTI exploded 19%, finishing at $99.30/barrel. Over the past 10 days, crude has skyrocketed 48%. Excluding the pandemic, that was the largest move since our data set began in 1983 and hit levels last seen in 2022. The last few oil peaks were $115 (June 2022), $126 (March 2022), and the all-time high of $147 in 2008. We won't guess where this ends, but the longer prices go parabolic, the sooner we reach a peak (likely followed by a crash). The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) appears to be tracing out a bearish rounding top. An end to the war and subsequent crash in oil should make the pattern null and void. On Thursday, the SPX fell below the December 17 closing low of 6,721 and also took out the key 61.8% retracement of the rally from November 21 to January 28. The next key supports are the 200-day average at 6,604, an 88.2% retracement at 6,579, and then the November 2025 intraday and closing lows in the 6,520-6,540 range. It's hard to find much that is bullish on the daily charts, except that the SPX continues to show resilience after all the negative headlines. Or maybe there is just too much complacency. More concerning is that the index has lost its 21-week exponential moving average, a consistent</p>
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