By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on a potential $75 billion SpaceX IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation, citing risks such as capital intensity, uncertain cash flow, dilution, market sentiment shifts, and the 'Tesla-proxy' contagion. They warn that historical post-IPO patterns may not apply due to SpaceX's unique circumstances and the current market environment.
Risk: The timing mismatch between when the market demands cash flow and when SpaceX can actually deliver it, as flagged by Claude.
Opportunity: None explicitly stated in the discussion.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Some of the biggest U.S.-listed public offerings are names that might surprise you.
Just as surprising is how little money these outfits actually raised at the time compared to their current size.
Even so, breaking fundraising records in place at the time of their IPOs merits a closer look.
SpaceX's initial public offering is now officially imminent. Its final pricing is expected on June 11, with public trading to begin on June 12. The latest word is that the company aims to raise $75 billion by selling 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, implying a corporate valuation of $1.75 trillion.
That would make it the biggest IPO ever in terms of the total amount of money raised, and in terms of market capitalization at the time the public offering is made. Indeed, that valuation would instantaneously make SpaceX the world's ninth biggest publicly traded company, right behind Broadcom, and just ahead of Elon Musk's other company, Tesla.
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Almost needless to say, expectations are high.
This begs the question: What were the biggest U.S.-listed initial public offerings up until this point, and how did they perform out of the gate?
IPO date: May 10, 2019 Amount raised: $8.1 billion Initial valuation: $82.4 billion
Ride-hailing outfit Uber Technologies (NYSE: UBER) arguably waited just a little too long to go public. While the company was still satisfied with its result in early 2019, insiders were disappointed with a final price that came in nearer the bottom of its suggested price range. Had it happened just a few months earlier -- when the hype surrounding the company was stronger -- Uber might have fared better.
Things worked out better in the long run for its earliest shareholders, though, letting them in at a lower price in front of a 58% gain since its IPO.
Uber shares were losing ground shortly after the initial hype faded, but before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020 brought the world to a screeching halt, including companies' businesses. We'll never know for sure if the capitulation in March 2020 was caused by the contagion, or if it was going to happen anyway.
IPO date: April 27, 2000Amount raised: $10.6 billionInitial valuation: $68.1 billion
Contrary to a common assumption, the AT&T Wireless of the early 2000s isn't really the AT&T (NYSE: T) of today. In fact, AT&T Wireless was technically a spinoff from AT&T that would go on to be acquired by Cingular in 2004. Cingular was part of SBC Communications, which would also eventually acquire the rest of AT&T anyway, and use the familiar name as an umbrella for all of its businesses. It's also been through several evolutions in the meantime, including the acquisition and eventual sale of DirecTV, as well as the purchase and exit of entertainment giant Time Warner.
That's why any lookback at this stock's post-IPO performance would be meaningless. Making it even more meaningless is the fact that it happened right at the beginning of the tech-wreck of 2000. It wasn't a publicly traded outfit long enough to really matter.
For what it's worth, though, AT&T Wireless' IPO was still record-breaking at the time.
IPO date: Nov. 10, 2021 Amount raised: $11.9 billion Initial valuation: $66.5 billion
Although it happened smack-dab in the middle of the coronavirus contagion, that was actually a brilliant time for electric vehicle up-and-comer Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) to go public. Interest in stocks was high, and investor interest in electric vehicle manufacturers was particularly pronounced.
Unfortunately, that apparent bullishness would implode shortly thereafter. RIVN shares peaked just a few days after the company's IPO, leading into a sell-off that still has this stock valued 77% below its public offering price of $78.
IPO date: Nov. 18, 1996Amount raised: €10.0 billion ($13 billion) Initial valuation: $50 billion
Yes, Deutsche Telekom (OTC: DTEGY) is a German company serving the German market. It's got strong links to the U.S. market, though, and was very much a U.S. stock when the state-owned telecom carrier went public with a New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) listing in November 1996. The company is still the majority owner of American wireless powerhouse T-Mobile, and is currently even exploring the prospect of a full-blown merger of the two wireless outfits.
The NYSE listing of this ADR (American depositary receipt), created in conjunction with its listing in Germany, has since been downgraded to an over-the-counter -- or OTC -- issue. The stock hasn't performed particularly well since tumbling during, and because of, the dot-com meltdown of 2000.
There's no denying that it had a very strong start, even if it was fueled by the unsustainably bullish hype that was starting to firm up in the latter half of the 1990s.
IPO date: Nov. 17, 2010Amount raised: $20.1 billionInitial valuation: $63 billion
It's true! The General Motors (NYSE: GM) of today has only been publicly traded since late 2010. There's some important context to remember. The old General Motors went bankrupt in 2009, forcing a reorganization that led to the creation of brand new shares.
Regardless, at the time of their public debut, their sale represented the stock market's largest-ever fundraising.
They've performed pretty well in the meantime, too. Although they ran into a headwind in early 2011 that would linger into and through most of 2012, shares are now up a little over 150% since then. That's pretty impressive for an automobile maker.
IPO date: May 18, 2012 Amount raised: $16 billion Initial valuation: $104 billion
Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) -- back when it was still just Facebook -- tells one of the market's most cautionary tales about insisting on buying newly minted stocks as soon as you can. It tumbled right out of the gate, falling more than 50% over the course of the 18 weeks following its May 2012 public offering.
Granted, it's since gone on to gain more than 1,600% from its public offering price, clearly paying off for patient shareholders.
IPO date: March 19, 2008 Amount raised: $19.1 billion Initial valuation: $39 billion
Although it's been around seemingly forever, credit card payment network giant Visa (NYSE: V) has only been publicly traded since early 2008. It's done very well during this 18-year stretch, surging immediately after its shares began trading on the NYSE.
Now look more closely at the chart above. While it rallied right out of the gate and is well up for the entirety of its existence, less than three months after its IPO, it was down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak.
Even so, at the time, its public offering broke U.S. fundraising records.
IPO date: Sept. 18, 2014 Amount raised: $25 billion Initial valuation: $167.7 billion
Finally, add China's e-commerce powerhouse Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) to the list of the biggest-ever U.S. public offerings. At a total of $25 billion raised, it's still technically the biggest, in fact, even if that title is doomed by the looming SpaceX IPO.
Like most of the other names on -- and not on -- this list, BABA stock got a pretty good start as a publicly traded equity. However, also like most other well-watched IPOs, this one rolled over about a month after its public offering. A little over a year later, shares were down by more than half of their post-IPO high, falling under their public offering price in the process.
The stock's obviously overcome this early setback in the meantime, although it's been a spectacularly wild ride.
There are arguably some names missing from this list, like Saudi Aramco, SoftBank, NTT Mobile, and Enel SpA, just to name a few. These tickers are largely excluded because these companies' primary stock listings aren't in the United States, or these names were -- and are -- of little interest to most U.S. investors.
The same underlying patterns that apply to the tickers discussed above apply to them, however, just as they're likely to apply to the upcoming IPO of SpaceX stock. That's a whole lot of bullish interest shortly after the stock starts trading, followed by a prolonged period of weakness rooted in the reality that these stocks' early valuations don't make a whole lot of sense. There was simply too much hype doing too much work early on.
Still, there's no denying that most of these sizable, high-profile public offerings ended up panning out nicely for patient early shareholders.
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James Brumley has positions in AT&T. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Broadcom, Deutsche Telekom Ag, Meta Platforms, Tesla, Uber Technologies, and Visa. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group, General Motors, and T-Mobile US. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"A $1.75T valuation would require durable, scalable free cash flow well beyond the current trajectory; hype pricing may be the riskiest part of the story."
The article leans on past mega-IPOs and glosses post-listing realities, which risks overstating the positive: SpaceX, pricing around $135 and a $75B raise implying a $1.75T market cap, would hinge on durable cash flow, not hype. SpaceX’s mix—launch services, Starlink, and other ventures—remains capital-intensive with uncertain near-term FCF visibility and heavy dependence on government contracts and regulatory outcomes. Dilution, lock-up expiry, and market sentiment shifts can crush upside even after an initial pop. The piece cherry-picks winners; many big IPOs later retrace. Caution is warranted before treating this as a guaranteed wealth creator.
Strongest counterpoint: SpaceX could still deliver durable cash flows if Starlink monetizes globally and launch services win steady government contracts. That could justify lofty multiples if execution remains flawless.
"The article presents speculative, unverified rumors as a confirmed IPO event, creating a significant risk of misinformation for investors."
The article's premise regarding a $75 billion SpaceX IPO is highly suspect and lacks verification. As of mid-2024, SpaceX remains a private entity with no official SEC filing for an IPO on June 11. The article treats speculative 'latest word' as fact, which is dangerous for retail investors. Historically, mega-cap IPOs like Meta and Alibaba demonstrate that 'hype-adjusted' valuations often lead to immediate post-IPO contraction. If SpaceX were to go public at a $1.75 trillion valuation, it would trade at a massive premium to aerospace peers, ignoring the cyclical nature of launch demand and the capital intensity of Starlink. Investors should treat this 'news' as unsubstantiated rumor rather than actionable financial data.
If SpaceX successfully executes a public offering, the scarcity of pure-play private space assets could drive an 'AI-like' valuation premium, forcing institutional index inclusion regardless of current cash flow metrics.
"SpaceX's record valuation makes an initial 30-50% post-IPO correction more probable, not less, than the mega-IPOs the article cites."
The article correctly flags the recurring post-IPO pattern of early hype followed by 50%+ drawdowns before long-term recovery across names like BABA, UBER, and RIVN. SpaceX's planned $1.75T valuation and $75B raise, however, dwarf even Alibaba's $167.7B debut and occur against tighter liquidity and higher rates than 2014 or 2019. Overlap with Tesla plus execution risk on Starship timelines add volatility layers absent from prior cases. Investors chasing the biggest IPO ever should price in at least one extended consolidation phase rather than assume historical patience will be quickly rewarded.
SpaceX's government contracts and vertical integration could shorten or eliminate the typical correction window, making the historical template less relevant than the article implies.
"SpaceX's $1.75T day-one valuation implies perfection on execution and regulatory timelines with zero margin for error—a higher bar than the precedent IPOs cited, most of which had revenue or clear paths to profitability at listing."
The article's historical pattern—initial euphoria followed by 50%+ drawdowns before long-term recovery—is presented as reassuring precedent for SpaceX. But the article conflates two different things: whether patient capital eventually wins (true for Meta, Visa, Alibaba) versus whether the IPO pricing itself was justified. SpaceX at $1.75T would be 9th largest company globally on day one with ~$0 revenue. That's not hype correction risk; that's fundamental valuation detachment. The article also ignores that SpaceX's private funding history (multiple rounds at rising valuations) may have already priced in much of the 'story.' Most concerning: zero discussion of execution risk—Starship delays, regulatory headwinds, or competition from Blue Origin could crater the narrative within 18 months.
If SpaceX executes on Starship commercialization and government contracts accelerate, a $1.75T valuation could look cheap in 5 years, making early buyers patient winners just like Meta shareholders. The historical pattern the article documents is real.
"A $1.75T SpaceX IPO with near-zero revenue would need durable cash flow over years; any delay or regulatory hurdle could unleash a multi-stage downside well beyond typical post-IPO drawdowns."
Claude's concern about fundamental valuation detachment is valid, but there's a stronger missing risk: the capital structure and the path to actual cash flow. A $1.75T IPO with near-zero revenue would require not just Starlink monetization but years of steady, high-margin cash flow and government contracts, with aggressive assumptions about peak profitability and cost control. Any delay or regulatory hurdle could trigger a multi-leg downside beyond the typical post-IPO drawdown.
"A SpaceX IPO introduces systemic contagion risk to Tesla's valuation that the market is currently ignoring."
Claude is right about the valuation, but everyone is missing the 'Tesla-Proxy' risk. Retail investors will treat a SpaceX IPO as a leveraged bet on Elon Musk’s entire ecosystem. If Starship hits a major technical failure, the contagion won't just hit SpaceX; it will trigger a reflexive sell-off in TSLA, which is already struggling with margin compression. We aren't just pricing a space company; we are pricing the stability of the entire Musk-led complex.
"Starship delays would simultaneously damage launch margins and Starlink growth, creating deeper correlated downside than prior mega-IPOs."
Gemini's Tesla-proxy contagion correctly links the names, but it misses how Starship execution delays would simultaneously compress SpaceX launch margins and slow Starlink subscriber growth, directly undermining the cash-flow ramp ChatGPT requires for a $1.75T valuation to hold. That dual hit creates correlated downside absent from BABA or UBER cases and amplified by today's tighter liquidity.
"SpaceX's valuation requires simultaneous execution on two long-pole items (Starlink scale + launch margin defense) with misaligned timelines, creating a cliff risk absent from historical mega-IPO precedents."
Grok nails the dual-compression risk, but both miss the sequencing trap: Starlink monetization requires global regulatory approval and capex that delays near-term FCF, while Starship delays push launch margins lower exactly when SpaceX needs them highest to justify $1.75T. It's not just correlated downside—it's a *timing mismatch* between when the market demands cash flow and when SpaceX can actually deliver it. That's worse than BABA's 2014 drawdown because the narrative breaks faster.
The panel consensus is bearish on a potential $75 billion SpaceX IPO at a $1.75 trillion valuation, citing risks such as capital intensity, uncertain cash flow, dilution, market sentiment shifts, and the 'Tesla-proxy' contagion. They warn that historical post-IPO patterns may not apply due to SpaceX's unique circumstances and the current market environment.
None explicitly stated in the discussion.
The timing mismatch between when the market demands cash flow and when SpaceX can actually deliver it, as flagged by Claude.