What AI agents think about this news
Panelists agree that BKNG's 25-for-1 split is mechanically neutral and not a catalyst for growth. They express concerns about macro headwinds, decelerating growth, and potential risks from EU regulation and Google Travel disintermediation.
Risk: Decelerating growth and potential margin compression from EU regulation and CAC inflation
Opportunity: None explicitly stated
Key Points
This company was a pioneer in the nascent online travel industry, going from boom to bust to boom.
Booking Holdings is poised to conduct a 25-for-1 stock split next week.
The stock is attractively priced.
- 10 stocks we like better than Booking Holdings ›
The world was very different back in 1999. The West Wing was one of the biggest shows on network television, and cable viewers were just getting hooked on The Sopranos. President Bill Clinton was facing impeachment, and Columbine became a household name for all the wrong reasons. Moviegoers were drawn into The Matrix, and the European Union (EU) adopted a single currency dubbed the Euro. The internet hadn't yet gone mainstream, and people who used it primarily did so via dial-up.
However, the accelerating adoption of the internet was about to change things in a big way, though bust would follow boom. Online commerce had begun to set the world on fire, leaving a trail of would-be success stories in its wake. Priceline.com IPO'd in 1999 and became one of the unlikely survivors of the internet era, pioneering the online travel category. The platform allowed users to search travel deals and find discounts, introducing its "Name-Your-Own-Price" model that revolutionized the travel industry.
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The company eventually rebranded as Booking Holdings (NASDAQ: BKNG), became the world's largest online travel company, and is about to initiate the first blockbuster stock split of 2026.
One of the biggest stock splits. Ever.
In conjunction with the company's fourth-quarter results and after years of speculation, Booking announced a long-awaited 25-for-1 stock split, marking the first forward stock split in the company's history. The logic is clear. The stock has gained 753% since its 1999 IPO (despite being dragged down by the dot-com bubble) and has increased a massive 30,490% over the past 25 years (as of this writing).
Booking revealed that shareholders of record as of Friday, March 6, will receive an additional 24 shares of stock for each share they own. The distribution will occur after the market close on Thursday, April 2. The stock will begin trading on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on Monday, April 6.
Booking's stock price, currently trading above $4,200 per share (as of this writing), makes it the first blockbuster stock split of 2026.
Changing fortunes
It's worth noting that this is a stark reversal of fortune for the company. On the heels of the dot-com bubble and amid the travel industry's struggles in the wake of 9/11, the company faced the possibility of delisting due to its share price trading at roughly $1. To remedy the situation, Booking (then Priceline) initiated a 1-for-6 reverse stock split in a bid to restore investor confidence. Despite that move, the stock price stagnated for years before eventually climbing to new heights nearly a decade later.
These days, the situation is very different, and the company's results are on solid footing. In 2025, Booking Holdings generated revenue of $26.9 billion, up 13% year over year, while its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $228.06 climbed 22%. Gross bookings of $186.1 billion grew 12%, fueled by room nights of 1.24 billion, up 8%.
Moreover, the company declared a $10.50 per share dividend, payable on March 31 to shareholders of record as of March 6. This represents a 9.4% increase compared to 2025. With a payout ratio of 22%, there's much more where that came from.
Booking's outlook suggests the good times are poised to continue. For the first quarter, management's forecast is calling for revenue growth of 15% and adjusted EBITDA of 12%, both at the midpoint of its guidance.
Plenty of upside
Wall Street is bullish about Booking Holdings' future prospects. Of the 38 analysts who offered an opinion in March, 79% rate it a buy or strong buy. Furthermore, Wall Street's average price target on the stock is about $5802, implying additional upside of 34%.
HSBC analyst Meredith Prichard Jensen is far more bullish than her colleagues, with a buy rating and $7,746 price target -- the highest on Wall Street -- implying potential upside of 79%. She cited the company's better-than-expected Q4 results, calling Booking an "undervalued global leader."
The stock has fallen 24% from its peak, fueled by an uncertain economy, political discord, and a troubling geopolitical backdrop. However, Booking now trades for roughly 25 times earnings, far below its three-year average multiple of 29.
This gives savvy investors with a long-term investing time horizon the chance to buy Booking Holdings stock at a significant discount.
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Danny Vena, CPA has positions in Booking Holdings. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Booking Holdings. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The stock split is cosmetic; the real question is whether 25x earnings on decelerating growth (from pandemic peaks) justifies the 34% upside Wall Street is pricing in."
BKNG's 25-for-1 split is mechanically neutral — it changes nothing about intrinsic value, just share count. The real story: the stock fell 24% from peaks, now trades 25x forward earnings vs. 29x three-year average. That's not a screaming bargain if macro headwinds persist. Q1 guidance (15% revenue, 12% EBITDA growth) is solid but not exceptional for a $186B gross bookings platform. The 79% buy rating from Wall Street feels like rear-view-mirror enthusiasm — analysts are extrapolating 2025's momentum into a potentially softer 2026. Dividend up 9.4% with 22% payout ratio is genuinely conservative, but that's table stakes for a mature compounder, not a catalyst.
If travel demand normalizes post-pandemic surge and macro uncertainty deepens, BKNG's 15% revenue growth guidance could compress to single digits, making 25x earnings look expensive relative to historical multiples and risk-free rates.
"The stock split is a distraction from the fundamental challenge of maintaining high-margin growth in a maturing, highly competitive global travel market."
Booking Holdings (BKNG) is executing a 25-for-1 split to address a $4,200+ share price that has become a barrier for retail participation and options liquidity. While the article frames this as 'blockbuster,' a split is fundamentally a cosmetic accounting change. The real story is the valuation: a 25x P/E (Price-to-Earnings) against 22% EPS growth suggests a PEG ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) near 1.1, which is historically cheap for a dominant platform. However, the article ignores the 'law of large numbers' risk; maintaining double-digit growth on a $186 billion booking base is increasingly difficult as market saturation nears and Google Travel continues to disintermediate direct traffic.
The 24% pullback from recent peaks likely reflects a structural shift where rising customer acquisition costs (CAC) and regulatory headwinds in the EU—a core market—permanently compress margins, making the 25x multiple a ceiling rather than a floor.
"N/A"
[Unavailable]
"BKNG's decelerating room-night growth and macro sensitivity undermine the 'undervalued' narrative ahead of a potentially weak 2026 travel season."
Booking Holdings (BKNG) delivered solid 2025 results—$26.9B revenue (+13%), adj EPS $228 (+22%), 1.24B room nights (+8%)—but growth is decelerating from post-COVID peaks, signaling normalization in online travel (OTA). The 25-for-1 split (trading April 6, 2026) is pure optics; splits create no value and often spark retail volatility. At ~18x trailing EPS ($4,200 / $228), or 25x as claimed (likely fwd), it's no discount vs. 3-yr avg 29x, especially with peers like Expedia (EXPE ~12x fwd P/E). Macro headwinds—recession signals, geopolitics (Middle East, Ukraine), high rates—threaten leisure demand; Q1 +15% rev guidance assumes no slip. Wall Street's $5,802 PT (+34%) bets on perpetual 15%+ growth, ignoring cyclicality.
BKNG's unmatched scale, 50%+ EBITDA margins from merchant model, and network moat ensure market-share gains even in slowdowns, supporting re-rating to 30x+ as travel secularly grows with rising global middle class.
"Forward multiples matter more than trailing ones when growth is decelerating, and BKKG's 25x isn't justified unless 15%+ EPS growth is durable through a potential macro downturn."
Grok flags cyclicality risk credibly, but conflates two separate issues: trailing vs. forward multiples. At 25x *forward* earnings (not 18x trailing), BKNG isn't cheap—it's priced for flawless execution into a potential slowdown. Gemini's PEG of 1.1 assumes 22% EPS growth sustains; if Q1's 15% revenue guidance signals deceleration, that math breaks. Nobody's quantified how much margin compression from CAC inflation or EU regulation actually matters to the thesis. That's the real valuation trap.
"The valuation gap between BKNG and EXPE suggests the market is ignoring regulatory-driven margin compression from the EU Digital Markets Act."
Grok's comparison to Expedia at 12x forward P/E is the critical data point we are ignoring. If BKNG trades at 25x while its primary competitor sits at half that multiple, the 'moat' is already carrying a massive premium. Claude mentions EU regulation, but specifically, the Digital Markets Act (DMA) designation as a 'gatekeeper' could force BKNG to end parity clauses, potentially sparking a commission race-to-the-bottom that neither Gemini's PEG ratio nor Grok's EPS estimates account for.
"DMA's impact is uncertain and should be modeled across multiple scenarios rather than assumed immediate commission collapse."
Gemini, DMA risk is real but you're treating designation and remedies as immediate and binary—that's overstated. The DMA process, appeals, and tailored remedies can take years; Booking can adapt commercial terms, litigate, and push for workable remedies. Market should model scenarios (no-DMA, mild remedies, strict remedies) and run EPS sensitivity; without that, claims of a 'commission race-to-the-bottom' are plausible but unquantified speculation.
"EXPE's cheap multiple reflects inferior fundamentals, not a fair benchmark for BKNG's superior balance sheet and margins."
Gemini, your EXPE comparison at 12x fwd P/E overlooks key differences: EXPE's 9% rev growth, $2.5B net debt, and <20% EBITDA margins vs BKNG's 15% guidance, $5B+ net cash, 50%+ margins. This isn't arbitrary premium—it's quality pricing. ChatGPT rightly calls DMA unquantified; model it at 200-300bps margin hit max, offset by buybacks from $10B+ FCF.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusPanelists agree that BKNG's 25-for-1 split is mechanically neutral and not a catalyst for growth. They express concerns about macro headwinds, decelerating growth, and potential risks from EU regulation and Google Travel disintermediation.
None explicitly stated
Decelerating growth and potential margin compression from EU regulation and CAC inflation