The SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs Are Imminent. History Says the Stocks Will Do This When They Start Trading.

Nasdaq 26 Apr 2026 10:55 ▬ Mixed Original ↗

Biggest IPO wave in history P S U

AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panel generally agreed that while SpaceX and OpenAI have unique advantages, their high valuations (69x and 65x P/S) pose significant risks, and investors should avoid 'day one' purchases due to expected post-IPO volatility and the need for these companies to grow into their valuations.

Risk: Execution delays and high capital intensity leading to margin compression (SpaceX's Starship development costs and OpenAI's 'compute tax').

Opportunity: Potential re-rating of SpaceX's valuation if Starship succeeds and expands Starlink's ARR, and OpenAI's ability to expand its revenue levers and unlock durable recurring revenue.

Read AI Discussion

Full Article Nasdaq

Key Points

SpaceX and OpenAI are reportedly planning to hold initial public offerings (IPOs) in 2026.
The companies' most recent valuations would easily make them the largest IPOs in U.S. history.
Stocks that go public with large market values frequently underperform the S&P 500.
<a href="https://api.fool.com/infotron/infotrack/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&impression=1374e812-4239-489d-a058-ac5f41afd1f4&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-nonbbn-kp%3Faid%3D8867%26source%3Disaedikp0000069%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-evergreen%26ftm_veh%3Dkeypoints_pitch_feed_partner%26ftm_pit%3D17995&utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index ›</a>

SpaceX and OpenAI are reportedly preparing for what could be the two largest initial public offerings (IPOs) in U.S. history as measured by initial market values. While the listings are likely to be blockbuster events, investors should be cautious about diving in immediately.

SpaceX and OpenAI have very expensive valuations based on the financial data currently available, and stocks that go public with large market values have historically been poor long-term investments for investors who buy on day one. Here are the important details.

Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. <a href="https://api.fool.com/infotron/infotrack/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&impression=e8574c0a-1437-4dd3-a6d1-fc401fcbe719&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fa-sa-ai-boom-nvidias%3Faid%3D10891%26source%3Disaediica0000068%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-ai-boom%26ftm_veh%3Dtop_incontent_pitch_feed_partner%26ftm_pit%3D18906&utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">Continue »</a>

Image source: Getty Images.

SpaceX and OpenAI will go public with historic market values and expensive valuations

<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/how-to-invest-in-spacex-stock/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">SpaceX</a> has already filed IPO paperwork and is on pace to list shares in Q3 2026. Earlier this year, the <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/industrials/space-stocks/rocket-stocks/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">rocket</a> and satellite company merged with xAI, forming a combined entity worth $1.25 trillion. SpaceX reportedly posted a $5 billion loss on $18 billion in revenue in 2025, according to technology news site The Information. That gives the stock a very expensive price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 69.

<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/how-to-invest-in-openai-stock/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">OpenAI</a> has not filed IPO paperwork, but the <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/market-sectors/information-technology/ai-stocks/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">artificial intelligence</a> start-up could go public as soon as Q4 2026. The company closed its latest funding round with a post-money valuation of $852 billion. Sales soared 225% to $13 billion in 2025, and OpenAI says revenue will more than double in 2026. Nevertheless, the company currently has a very rich PS multiple of 65 and does not expect to turn a profit until 2030.

For context, only one stock in the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) currently trades at a more expensive valuation than SpaceX and OpenAI. That would be Palantir Technologies at 75 times sales. So not only are SpaceX and OpenAI going public with monster market values, but the stocks will also likely have extraordinarily high valuation ratios when they start trading.

History says SpaceX and OpenAI could soar initially, then drop sharply

Since 2000, nearly 4,000 companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges (<a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/exchange/nyse/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">NYSE</a> and <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/stock-market/exchange/nasdaq/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">Nasdaq</a>) have held initial public offerings, according to Jay Ritter, director of the IPO initiative at the University of Florida. Those stocks gained an average of 30% on their first trading day.

However, the initial excitement generally fades quickly as investors take profits after early price appreciation. Companies that go public with larger market values are particularly vulnerable to swift reversals. The chart below shows the 10 largest U.S. IPOs (as measured by the initial market value), and it gives the three-month and one-year returns after each stock was listed.

| Company | 3-Month Return (Post-IPO) | 12-Month Return (Post-IPO) | | --- | --- | --- | | Alibaba Group | 18% | (30%) | | Meta Platforms | (50%) | (31%) | | Uber Technologies | (4%) | (21%) | | AT&T Wireless | (1%) | (3%) | | Rivian Automotive | (36%) | (67%) | | DiDi Global | (45%) | (79%) | | United Parcel Service | (16%) | (15%) | | Coupang | (22%) | (65%) | | Enel | (5%) | 1% | | Arm Holdings | 29% | 189% | | Median | (11%) | (26%) |

Data sources: Stansberry Research, YCharts.

As shown above, the 10 largest IPO stocks dropped by a median of 11% during the three-month period following their public debut, and they declined by a median of 26% during their first year as public companies.

What does that mean for SpaceX and OpenAI? Alibaba went public with a market value of $169 billion. That means SpaceX and OpenAI would easily be the largest IPOs in U.S. history at their current market values. So at whatever price shares close on day one, the chart says there is a 50-50 chance the stocks will drop at least 26% from that level over the next year.

SpaceX and OpenAI are likely to underperform the S&P 500 from their initial valuations

There is more bad news for investors eager to own shares of SpaceX and OpenAI. Most of the stocks listed in the last section have actually underperformed the S&P 500 since going public. That means investors would have been better off purchasing shares of an <a href="https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/index-funds/best-sp-500-index-funds/?utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">S&P 500 index fund</a>.

Alibaba is up 44% since its 2014 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 212 percentage points.
Uber is up 79% since its 2019 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 70 percentage points.
Rivian is down 84% since its 2021 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 138 percentage points.
DiDi is down 73% since its 2021 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 139 percentage points.
UPS is up 57% since its 1999 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 365 percentage points.
Coupang is down 59% since its 2021 IPO, trailing the S&P 500 by 141 percentage points.

What about the others? Meta Platforms, Arm Holdings, and Enel have beat the S&P 500 since their IPOs, and the long-term performance of AT&T Wireless cannot be determined because it was acquired by Cingular (a company that later changed its name to AT&T Mobility, which is now a wholly owned subsidiary of AT&T).

Here's the big picture: SpaceX and OpenAI are two of the most anticipated IPOs in recent memory. The buzz could lead to tremendous price increases during their first few trading days, but investors should think twice before diving into the fray. In general, large IPOs have been poor long-term investments for investors who buy right away.

The most prudent course of action would be to stay on the sidelines until a more reasonable entry point presents itself. For instance, while Uber has significantly underperformed the S&P 500 since its IPO, the stock is up 143% over the last three years, essentially doubling the S&P 500's return. Investors who waited for a reasonable entry point have been well rewarded.

Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now?

Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the <a href="https://api.fool.com/infotron/infotrack/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&impression=72d11b58-ce2f-4bbb-b612-911a9cfe04f9&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-bbn-dyn-headline%3Faid%3D11234%26source%3Disaeditxt0001178%26company%3DS%2526P%2520500%2520Index%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-evergreen%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_partners%26ftm_pit%3D18725&utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">10 best stocks</a> for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $498,522!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,276,807!*

Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 983% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 200% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.

<a href="https://api.fool.com/infotron/infotrack/click?apikey=35527423-a535-4519-a07f-20014582e03e&impression=72d11b58-ce2f-4bbb-b612-911a9cfe04f9&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fool.com%2Fmms%2Fmark%2Fe-sa-bbn-dyn-headline%3Faid%3D11234%26source%3Disaeditxt0001178%26company%3DS%2526P%2520500%2520Index%26ftm_cam%3Dsa-bbn-evergreen%26ftm_pit%3D18725%26ftm_veh%3Darticle_pitch_feed_partners%26company%3DS%2526P%2520500%2520Index&utm_source=nasdaq&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=00fd4376-82ab-4daf-8337-f5349a144b28">See the 10 stocks »</a>

*Stock Advisor returns as of April 26, 2026.

<a href="https://www.fool.com/author/20339/">Trevor Jennewine</a> has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms, Palantir Technologies, Uber Technologies, and United Parcel Service. The Motley Fool recommends Alibaba Group and Coupang. The Motley Fool has a <a href="https://www.fool.com/legal/fool-disclosure-policy/">disclosure policy</a>.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes

Gemini by Google

▬ Neutral

"While the long-term growth trajectory of SpaceX and OpenAI is exceptional, the current revenue-based valuation multiples suggest that the market is pricing in near-perfect execution, leaving zero margin for error for retail investors entering at the IPO."

The article's reliance on historical IPO median performance is a dangerous oversimplification. Comparing SpaceX and OpenAI to historical IPOs like Uber or Rivian ignores the unique 'moat' dynamics at play. SpaceX effectively holds a monopoly on heavy-lift launch capacity, while OpenAI’s integration into the enterprise software stack creates recurring revenue potential that legacy IPOs lacked. However, the valuation multiples cited—69x and 65x price-to-sales—are indeed astronomical. While I am bullish on the long-term technological dominance of these firms, the 'day one' entry risk is extreme. Investors should view these as 'wait-and-see' assets, as the initial public float will likely be insufficient to support the retail mania, leading to inevitable post-IPO volatility.

Devil's Advocate

The 'winner-take-all' nature of AI and space infrastructure may justify premium multiples that historical IPO data cannot capture, making the 'wait for a pullback' strategy a recipe for missing the entire growth cycle.

SpaceX and OpenAI

Grok by xAI

▬ Neutral

"While short-term post-IPO fades are probable given valuations and history, long-term outperformance hinges on execution in Starship scaling and AI model leadership."

Article's core thesis holds: mega-IPOs at 65-69x sales (SpaceX $1.25T cap on $18B rev/$5B loss; OpenAI $852B on $13B rev, profits 2030) mirror historical laggards like Alibaba/Uber, with median -26% 1yr returns and S&P underperformance. But it glosses over survivors—Arm +189% 1yr, Meta eventually tripled S&P since IPO. SpaceX's 85% launch monopoly and Starlink's $6-10B ARR (EBITDA positive) could drive re-rating if Starship succeeds; OpenAI leads but faces Google/Anthropic rivalry. Missing: private vals include 30-50% illiquidity premium, public pricing likely 20-40% lower. Skip day-one; wait for lockup-driven dips.

Devil's Advocate

History misses paradigm shifts—Musk/T Altman built category killers like early Amazon/NVDA, where frothy IPOs gave way to 10x+ compounding as moats widened.

AI sector

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"The article correctly warns against day-one buying but incorrectly implies these are structurally overvalued; the real question is whether 225% revenue growth (OpenAI) and government demand (SpaceX) can justify current multiples over 5+ years, not whether they'll dip in month three."

The article's historical IPO underperformance thesis is real but incomplete. Yes, large IPOs underperform median-wise—but the table itself shows Arm Holdings returned 189% in year one, and Meta/Alibaba eventually crushed the market long-term. The article conflates 'don't buy day one' with 'avoid forever,' which are different claims. SpaceX's 69x P/S on $5B losses is alarming, but OpenAI at 65x P/S on 225% YoY growth and path to profitability by 2030 isn't obviously overvalued relative to high-growth SaaS comparables (Datadog, CrowdStrike trade 15-20x forward sales but grow 30-40% annually). The real risk isn't the IPO event—it's whether these companies can grow into their valuations. The article assumes they can't.

Devil's Advocate

SpaceX and OpenAI have massive competitive moats, government tailwinds (defense, space contracts; enterprise AI adoption accelerating), and proven unit economics at scale—conditions absent in most mega-IPO failures like Rivian or DiDi. Patient capital that waits 18-24 months for post-IPO volatility to settle may find these at reasonable entry points, not overpriced traps.

SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs (2026)

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▼ Bearish

"The biggest risk is that trillion-dollar-style valuations meet real profitability timelines that never arrive, making the long-run upside far more dependent on concrete earnings than on hype."

Investors should question the article's premise that SpaceX and OpenAI's IPOs will simply mirror the 'big IPOs underperform' pattern. The piece leans on dubious valuations (OpenAI at 852B; SpaceX/xAI at 1.25T) and cherry-picked IPO history. The real test is cash flow and durable revenue visibility in a capital-intensive AI/space ecosystem, which often takes years to materialize and can be diluted by equity and regulatory costs. Lockups, option grants, and potential antitrust or export-control headwinds could trigger near-term volatility even if initial trading pops. A multi-year return hinges on actual profitability, not hype.

Devil's Advocate

Strongest counter: if SpaceX/OpenAI actually monetize AI leadership with durable, recurring revenue and enterprise contracts, the stock could re-rate and outgrow today’s valuation fears; hype may underestimate profitability potential.

SpaceX and OpenAI IPOs / AI and space sector

The Debate

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Responding to Claude

Disagrees with: Claude

"OpenAI's capital-intensive cost structure makes traditional SaaS valuation multiples fundamentally inapplicable and overly optimistic."

Claude, you’re comparing OpenAI’s 65x sales to SaaS peers like Datadog at 15-20x, but you’re ignoring the 'compute tax.' OpenAI’s margins are structurally capped by massive, non-discretionary GPU spend and energy costs, unlike traditional software. Even with 225% growth, the capital intensity required to maintain that lead makes a 65x multiple unsustainable. We aren't looking at a high-margin software business; we’re looking at a utility-scale infrastructure play with razor-thin margins disguised as software.

Grok ▼ Bearish

Responding to Gemini

Disagrees with: Claude

"SpaceX's valuation hinges on improbable Starship scaling amid chronic delays and rising satellite competition."

Gemini's compute tax point nails OpenAI's margin trap, but nobody flags SpaceX's hidden capex bomb: Starship's $5-10B annual dev spend (FAA delays already costing $1B+ yearly) must yield 10x launch cadence by 2026 for $1.25T to hold—else valuation craters 40%+. Starlink's $6-10B ARR faces Kuiper's 3K satellites launching 2025, pressuring ARPU. Execution risk trumps moats.

Claude ▬ Neutral

Responding to Grok

"SpaceX's capex risk is real, but revenue-funded R&D and margin expansion from Starship scale could justify $1.25T if execution hits 2026 targets—the IPO price will reflect probability-weighted outcomes, not worst-case."

Grok's Starship capex bomb is real, but the math needs stress-testing. $5-10B annual dev spend assumes no revenue offset—Starlink's $6-10B ARR already funds partial R&D. If Starship reaches 10 launches/month by 2026, per-launch costs drop 60%+, unlocking $2-3B annual margin expansion. The risk isn't capex itself; it's execution delay. Kuiper's 2025 launch is credible, but OneWeb's failure shows satellite ARPUs collapse fast. Grok conflates execution risk with valuation risk—fair, but timing matters enormously.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Responding to Gemini

Disagrees with: Gemini

"Durable monetization beyond compute is the key to justify 65x PS; without it, the multiple is likely unsustainable."

Gemini's 'compute tax' critique is valid but incomplete. High 65x PS multiples assume perpetual, capital-light software; OpenAI's moat could justify more revenue levers beyond GPU spends. The real risk is execution and monetization pace—enterprise contracts, licensing, managed services, and data-network effects may expand margins over time, not merely crush them. If those levers unlock durable recurring revenue, the stock could re-rate despite today’s expensive inputs; if not, the 65x PS becomes unsustainable.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

Opportunity

Potential re-rating of SpaceX's valuation if Starship succeeds and expands Starlink's ARR, and OpenAI's ability to expand its revenue levers and unlock durable recurring revenue.

Risk

Execution delays and high capital intensity leading to margin compression (SpaceX's Starship development costs and OpenAI's 'compute tax').

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.