The Stock Market's "Fear Gauge" Says the S&P 500 Will Make a Big Move in the Next Year (Hint: It's Good News)

Key Points
The S&P 500 has been abnormally volatile in recent weeks because the U.S.-Iran war has caused a rapid increase in oil prices.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently closed above 29, a level that has historically correlated with big gains in the S&P 500 over the next year.
Wall Street thinks the S&P 500 could advance 27% in the next year, but rising oil prices have also raised the odds of a recession.
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The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has now declined in four consecutive weeks, leaving the index nearly 6% below its record high. Apart from energy stocks, it's been a challenging year for equities across the board, though losses have been more pronounced in certain sectors.
- The information technology sector is 12% below its high because investors are concerned that artificial intelligence (AI) spending is unsustainable.
- The consumer discretionary sector is 12% below its high due to concerns about tariffs and rising oil prices, which some economists argue have raised the odds of a recession.
- The financial sector is 12% below its high because the private credit market is showing signs of stress. In Q4 2025, delinquency rates on U.S. loans reached their highest level since 2017.
- The materials sector is 11% below its high because rising oil prices and falling metal prices threaten to raise costs and slow revenue growth for manufacturers and miners.
- The communications services sector is 9% below its high due to its heavy concentration in advertising stocks, which tend to perform poorly during periods of economic uncertainty.
Collectively, those concerns have created a great deal of volatility in the stock market. The CBOE Volatility Index (VOLATILITYINDICES: ^VIX) -- often referred to as the stock market's fear gauge -- closed at 29.5 in early March. The index has not closed above 29 since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs last April.
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However, VIX readings above 29 have historically correlated with substantial upside in the stock market. Here's what investors should know.
History says the S&P 500 could soar 27% in the next year
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, with higher readings implying larger price swings. Its value at any given time depends on how much investors are willing to pay for S&P 500 options contracts. A VIX of 29 means investors expect the S&P 500 to move up or down by 29% over the next year.
The VIX closed at 29.5 on March 6, marking the 265th time the index closed above 29 over the last 15 years. That hints at substantial forward returns in the stock market. In the last 15 years, the S&P 500 has recorded an average 12-month gain of 24% following a VIX reading above 29.
What does that mean for investors? When the VIX closed at 29.5 on March 6, the S&P 500 closed at 6,740. Advancing 24% from that level would bring the stock market benchmark to 8,358 by early March 2027, which implies 27% upside from its current level of 6,582.
Wall Street also expects the S&P 500 to return about 27% in the next year
Wall Street expects a similar move in the S&P 500 during the next year. The bottom-up consensus forecast -- meaning the value implied by aggregating the median target price on every stock in the index -- says the S&P 500 will reach 8,338 by March 2027, according to FactSet Research. That implies nearly 27% upside from its current level.
However, that bottom-up consensus is based on expectations that S&P 500 companies will collectively report earnings growth of 16.3% in 2026, an acceleration from 13.8% in 2025. Wall Street analysts may reduce their forward earnings estimates if the U.S.-Iran war keeps oil prices elevated.
Last week, Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi warned that conflict in the Middle East could even tip the U.S. economy into a recession. "If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks, not months), a recession would be difficult to avoid." In that scenario, history says the S&P 500 would fall sharply over the next year.
Here's the big picture: Investors tend to overreact to bad news, so the stock market often performs well after periods of elevated volatility. However, past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Rising oil prices could cause corporate earnings to grow more slowly than Wall Street anticipates, in which case the upside implied by a VIX reading above 29 may not materialized.
Either way, investors should stick with what works best: Buy and hold high-quality stocks no matter what happens in the near term.
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Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends FactSet Research Systems and Moody's. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.