What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on ADM and HSY, citing policy risks, margin compression, and limited upside despite attractive dividend yields.
Risk: Policy reversals and commodity price volatility could crater earnings and pressure dividends.
Opportunity: None identified
Key Points
Archer-Daniels-Midland has 53 consecutive years of dividend increases.
Hershey is forecasting a significant earnings increase for 2026.
- 10 stocks we like better than Archer-Daniels-Midland ›
Like many other investors, I've been keeping a close eye on the technology sector in the last couple of years. The explosive growth of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks pushed the S&P 500 to several new highs over the last 12 months and made many people richer.
But while tech is taking a bit of a breather, you may not have noticed that several consumer staples stocks are outperforming the market by leaps and bounds. Consumer staples stocks are issued by companies that produce and sell everyday essentials such as food, beverages, cleaning supplies, and personal care products.
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And these stocks can be even more appealing right now as global conflict and a shaky economy make a lot of consumers nervous. The best part about holding consumer staples stocks is that they often have a lower risk of losses during a recession. And because they often have reliable earnings, they also frequently offer attractive dividends.
I've found two consumer staples stocks that are off to a great start, each jumping more than 10% so far this year. And each pays a dividend yield that's far better than the 1.15% yield currently offered by the S&P 500.
Archer-Daniels-Midland
Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM) is a processor of agricultural products -- it essentially turns them into ingredients used to make human and animal food. The company makes protein products, sweeteners, and flavorings in its network of 150 manufacturing sites. It also makes products for chickens, horses, pigs, and other farm animals, as well as separate nutritional products and treats for household pets.
The company's stock bottomed out in April of last year before beginning to rebound. And it showed a lot of promise in Archer-Daniels-Midland's fourth-quarter results. While revenues of $18.55 billion were down from $21.49 billion and earnings per share (EPS) fell from $1.17 to $0.94, the company projected that 2026 would be a greatly improved year. Management issued guidance for 2026 earnings to be in the range of $3.60 to $4.25, versus 2025 EPS of $2.23.
"We remain on track to achieve $500 to $750 million of aggregate cost savings over the next three to five years, beginning in 2025, and we believe increased clarity on biofuel policy combined with the evolution of global trade should support a more constructive operating environment for us in 2026," CEO Juan Luciano said.
The company increased its dividend by 2%, marking the 53rd consecutive year of dividend growth, which qualifies it for Dividend King status, and its yield is currently 2.9%. The stock is up 24% so far this year.
Hershey
Hershey (NYSE: HSY) is best known for its chocolate products, but it also makes a wide range of other products. Its portfolio of 90 snack foods includes Twizzlers, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and Skinny Pop popcorn.
Interestingly, the company has long kept its brand portfolios siloed, so it may make sense that consumers don't realize Hershey's broad reach. But that may change, as management recently announced that it was integrating its Sweet, Salty, and Protein brands under a single portfolio to capitalize on its brand power and centralize marketing.
Revenue in the fourth quarter was $3.09 billion, up 7% from a year ago, but income dropped 57% to $320 million, and adjusted earnings fell 36% to $1.71 per share. Management attributed the drop to charges related to its 2024 purchase of Sour Stripes and its 2025 acquisition of the snack food company LesserEvil.
Hershey is expecting 2026 sales to increase 4% to 5% and full-year adjusted earnings to be in the range of $8.20 to $8.52, which would be an increase of 30% to 35% from a year ago.
Investors have pushed Hershey stock up by nearly 15% so far this year, and the company's generous dividend yields 2.7%.
Should you buy stock in Archer-Daniels-Midland right now?
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Patrick Sanders has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Hershey. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Both stocks have already priced in optimistic 2026 guidance with 15–24% YTD gains, leaving little margin for error and no valuation cushion if macro deteriorates."
This article conflates dividend stability with investment merit. ADM's 53-year dividend streak is admirable but backward-looking; what matters is whether $3.60–$4.25 2026 EPS guidance is achievable given Q4 2025 missed $0.94 (down 20% YoY). HSY's 30–35% earnings growth sounds impressive until you note it's off a depressed 2025 base inflated by acquisition charges—not organic momentum. Both stocks are up 15–24% YTD, meaning much optimism is priced in. The article also omits valuation entirely: no P/E multiples, no comparison to sector averages. Dividend yields of 2.7–2.9% are marginally better than S&P 500, not compelling. The real risk: if 2026 guidance disappoints or macro softens, these 'defensive' plays could underperform faster than tech.
Consumer staples genuinely do outperform in recessions, and if a downturn hits in 2026, these dividend payers could rally while growth stocks crater—making the timing prescient, not lucky.
"ADM and HSY are being mischaracterized as defensive staples when they are actually high-beta cyclical turnaround plays exposed to commodity price volatility and M&A integration risk."
The article frames ADM and HSY as defensive havens, but these aren't your typical 'sleep-well' staples. ADM is essentially a commodity-linked industrial play; its 2026 earnings guidance relies heavily on volatile biofuel policy and global trade flows, not just steady consumer demand. HSY is currently navigating a significant margin compression due to aggressive M&A integration and rising cocoa costs, which the author glosses over as mere 'charges.' While the dividend yields are attractive relative to the S&P 500, investors are effectively buying into a turnaround story for both, rather than the stable, low-beta profile typically associated with the consumer staples sector.
If 2026 EPS targets are met, both stocks are trading at historically low forward P/E multiples, offering a rare value entry point before a cyclical recovery.
"N/A"
[Unavailable]
"2026 guidance is too distant and conditional to justify buying now amid Q4 weakness and unmentioned sector headwinds like commodity swings."
The article touts ADM and HSY for dividend yields (2.9% and 2.7%, beating S&P 1.15%) and 2026 guidance—ADM's EPS $3.60-$4.25 vs. 2025's $2.23, HSY's adjusted EPS up 30-35%—but buries Q4 realities: ADM revenues down 14% to $18.55B, EPS -20% to $0.94; HSY income -57%, adjusted EPS -36% from acquisition charges. Ag volatility, biofuel policy uncertainty, and snacking integration risks loom large. YTD gains (ADM +24%, HSY +15%) likely bake in hopes, leaving limited upside if near-term execution falters amid shaky economy.
Against neutral: These Dividend Kings' 53-year streaks and cost savings ($500-750M for ADM) provide recession-proof stability, with 2026 multi-year compounding outweighing short-term noise.
"Policy and commodity tail risks are underpriced; 2026 guidance has binary downside triggers neither the article nor panelists adequately stress."
Google and Grok both flag ADM's commodity/policy exposure and HSY's margin compression, but neither quantifies the cliff risk. ADM's 2026 guidance assumes biofuel blending mandates stay intact—a policy reversal would crater earnings 15–25% immediately. HSY's cocoa hedges expire mid-2026; if prices stay elevated, adjusted EPS could miss by 10–15%. The dividend streak matters only if cash flow supports it. Both panelists treat 2026 as certain; it's not.
"The dividend safety of ADM and HSY is structurally undermined by rising leverage and commodity-linked cash flow volatility."
Anthropic is right to highlight the policy cliff, but both panelists ignore the balance sheet reality. ADM’s net debt-to-EBITDA has crept toward 2.0x, limiting the flexibility to defend dividends if the 2026 earnings recovery stalls. Meanwhile, HSY’s M&A-driven leverage leaves zero margin for error on the cocoa price front. These aren't just 'defensive' stocks; they are high-beta plays on commodity volatility disguised as reliable dividend growers. The dividend safety is an illusion if free cash flow remains pressured.
"Working-capital volatility can erode free cash flow and imperil dividends even when headline EPS targets are met."
Seasonal working-capital swings in agribusiness are the blind spot here: rising inventories, slower receivables from commodity buyers, or export bottlenecks can drain cash even if EBITDA meets guidance. Neither the article nor the panelists have quantified cash-conversion risk; if ADM’s cost savings are backloaded and HSY’s integration ties up cash, dividend coverage (and buybacks) could be at risk—this is a plausible pathway to a dividend surprise, not just earnings miss.
"Dividend safety holds via cost savings and pricing power unless multiple risks hit simultaneously."
OpenAI rightly flags working-capital swings, but the panel's bear chorus ignores resilience: ADM's $500-750M cost savings (per guidance) directly offset FCF volatility, covering dividends 2.5x+ historically even in troughs. HSY's pricing power (10%+ annual hikes) has sustained payouts through cocoa spikes. Bear thesis needs policy flip + recession confluence—low odds vs. staples sector avg payout ratio ~50%.
Panel Verdict
Consensus ReachedThe panel consensus is bearish on ADM and HSY, citing policy risks, margin compression, and limited upside despite attractive dividend yields.
None identified
Policy reversals and commodity price volatility could crater earnings and pressure dividends.