By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on Anthropic's IPO, citing concerns about unrealistic revenue projections, heavy dilution risk, potential margin compression due to cloud pricing, and antitrust risks from heavy reliance on Amazon and Alphabet infrastructure.
Risk: Unrealistic revenue projections leading to a 'valuation trap' and significant lock-up expiration dumping.
Opportunity: None identified.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Alphabet and Amazon will be two of the biggest winners from the upcoming Anthropic IPO.
Zoom and Salesforce will also see meaningful gains on their investments.
Microsoft and Nvidia are also investors in the large language model developer.
Move over, SpaceX; a perhaps even more highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO) looks like it is just around the corner. Anthropic, the start-up behind large language model (LLM) Claude and agentic coding assistant Claude Code, announced at the start of June that it has filed to go public. In late May, it raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation, so it looks set to be the next trillion-dollar IPO after SpaceX.
While Anthropic reported $4.8 billion in revenue in Q1, it said it was on track to more than double revenue sequentially in Q2 to $10.9 billion. It is also expecting an operating profit of $559 million in the current quarter, showing an ability not just to rapidly grow revenue but also to do so profitably. That's impressive, and one of the big reasons why the company's private market valuation has been skyrocketing.
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While retail investors eagerly await the chance to buy Anthropic shares themselves, if they want exposure before the IPO, there are a few options: Several publicly traded companies that are appealing buys on their own have invested in the LLM maker.
Two of the largest stakeholders in Anthropic are cloud infrastructure giants Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). Microsoft also holds a stake.
Amazon was an early investor in the company, and its original $8 billion investment was valued at over $74 billion at the end of Q1. That's a massive gain that is only set to swell after Anthropic goes public.
Back in April, Amazon also committed to investing as much as $25 billion in the company, with $5 billion done at a $380 billion valuation and up to $20 billion more later, based on Anthropic hitting "certain commercial milestones." Amazon also received more than $100 billion in cloud computing commitments for Anthropic to use its Trainium and Graviton chips over the next decade.
Alphabet is also a huge investor in Anthropic, having made over $3 billion in early investments in the company; it reportedly held a 14% stake in the LLM maker before its most recent investment. In April, it committed to invest up to $40 billion more, starting with an initial $10 billion investment at a $380 billion valuation.
Similar to Amazon, the remaining purchases will be contingent on Anthropic reaching certain milestones. As part of its investment, Alphabet also reportedly got $200 billion in Google Cloud commitments from Anthropic.
Microsoft and Nvidia both invested in Anthropic when it had a value of around $380 billion. Microsoft invested $5 billion, while Nvidia invested $10 billion. However, of the megacap tech companies, Amazon and Alphabet are clearly the biggest direct beneficiaries of Anthropic's success.
While Amazon and Alphabet will be the biggest beneficiaries in terms of absolute dollar amounts, the stocks of Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) and Zoom (NASDAQ: ZM) may have the most to gain.
Zoom was an early investor in Anthropic, acquiring its stake in a 2023 funding round. The company's investment was worth $1.27 billion at the end of Q1, based on Anthropic's $380 billion February funding round. With it recently raising money at a $965 billion valuation, that position should shoot up to around $3 billion, depending on dilution.
Zoom's stake in Anthropic makes up about 13% of its $23.5 billion enterprise value. That's a meaningful percentage that could help drive Zoom's stock upward.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg recently reported that Salesforce has about a $5 billion stake in Anthropic. The company invested about $50 million in early 2023 and has consistently invested in subsequent rounds ever since. Given Salesforce's $165 billion market cap, the growth of that stake won't have quite as much of an impact on the company as Zoom's stake will for it, but this is still a nice investment win for a stock that has struggled to gain traction in recent years and is trading at a bargain-basement valuation.
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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Alphabet, Amazon, Salesforce, and Zoom Communications. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Salesforce, and Zoom Communications. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Post-IPO value will hinge on sustainable revenue visibility for Anthropic, not private-market hype or milestone-based deals."
Short version: the piece assumes Anthropic's private-market pomp translates to a trillion-dollar IPO and immediate material upside for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Zoom, and Salesforce. Realities that are glossed over: (1) Anthropic's near-term revenue trajectory and profitability hinge on large-scale AI deployment contracts that may disappoint; (2) post-IPO valuation risk, dilution, and market skepticism about sustaining 2026-era growth; (3) heavy dependence on cloud-infrastructure partners could lead to pricing or governance frictions; (4) execution risk vs. the competitive AI field (OpenAI, Google Gemini, etc).
But if Anthropic hits its milestones and monetizes at scale, the IPO could re-rate meaningfully as cloud revenue visibility improves; the bull case hinges on execution and favorable AI demand.
"The valuation metrics presented for Anthropic imply a hyper-growth trajectory that relies heavily on circular revenue arrangements with its own cloud-provider investors, masking potential long-term sustainability issues."
This article is fundamentally flawed, citing a $965 billion valuation for Anthropic that appears disconnected from reality for a company with $4.8B in Q1 revenue. If Anthropic is indeed projecting $10.9B in Q2 revenue, we are looking at an annualized run rate exceeding $40B, which would make it one of the fastest-scaling software businesses in history. While Amazon and Alphabet gain via 'cloud commitment' lock-ins, these are essentially circular capital flows where the cloud providers fund the startup to ensure the startup pays them back in compute fees. The real risk is the 'valuation trap'—if the IPO pricing is based on these aggressive, likely optimistic, revenue projections, early investors may face significant lock-up expiration dumping.
If Anthropic's agentic coding tools actually achieve mass adoption, the revenue growth could justify a trillion-dollar valuation, making current cloud investments look like bargain-basement entry points.
"Zoom's Anthropic stake could add roughly $1.7B in value but represents execution and timing risk given the company's history of valuation swings."
The article highlights unrealized gains for Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Zoom, and Salesforce from Anthropic stakes valued at recent $965B rounds, with Zoom's position equaling 13% of its $23.5B enterprise value. Yet it downplays conditional future commitments ($25B Amazon, $40B Alphabet), heavy dilution risk at IPO, and typical 180-day lockups that could erase paper gains if AI valuations compress. Anthropic's Q2 $10.9B revenue run-rate and $559M operating profit are impressive but unproven at scale. Zoom and Salesforce see the highest relative upside, while megacaps see negligible EPS impact.
Anthropic's sequential revenue doubling and shift to operating profit could support sustained high valuations post-IPO, allowing stakes to compound without immediate lockup pressure or dilution surprises.
"Zoom and Salesforce's Anthropic stakes are meaningful relative to their market caps, but the article omits that IPO dilution and a potential valuation reset could wipe out 40-60% of those unrealized gains before retail investors even get a chance to buy."
The article conflates unrealized paper gains with actual shareholder value creation. Yes, Anthropic's $965B valuation is eye-popping, but the IPO itself transfers wealth FROM early investors TO the company (which needs capital). Amazon's $8B→$74B paper gain evaporates if Anthropic's IPO prices at $500B, not $965B. More critically: the article assumes these stakes survive dilution and that Anthropic's path to profitability ($559M operating profit on $10.9B revenue = 5% margin) is sustainable. Cloud commitments ($100B+ from Amazon, $200B+ from Google) are *revenue* to Anthropic but *cost* to the cloud providers—a subsidy masquerading as upside. The real risk: if Anthropic's growth plateaus post-IPO or if these cloud deals prove unprofitable, the entire thesis collapses.
Anthropic's IPO could price well below $965B (recent private rounds often inflate valuations), and even if it doesn't, the article ignores that Amazon and Alphabet's stakes will be heavily diluted by new public shareholders—the $74B paper gain could shrink 30-50% on day one.
"Cloud economics risk—pricing/rebates could compress margins, undermining post-IPO upside despite revenue scale."
I’ll push back on the cloud-commitments angle Grok highlighted. The bigger danger isn’t lockups; it’s margin risk from cloud pricing. If compute becomes commodity-like, Amazon/Alphabet can renegotiate or demand rebates, compressing Anthropic’s margins even before dilution hits. That would undercut the 5% operating margin on a $10.9B run-rate and threaten long-run valuation upside—turning strong near-term revenue visibility into a brittle earnings story post-IPO.
"Regulatory scrutiny on cloud-provider 'moats' poses a greater existential threat to Anthropic's valuation than the circular revenue model itself."
Gemini, your skepticism on the 'circular capital' is vital, but you're missing the regulatory angle. If Anthropic achieves a trillion-dollar valuation while relying on Amazon and Alphabet infrastructure, the FTC and DOJ will view these cloud commitments as anti-competitive 'moats' rather than revenue. This isn't just a valuation trap; it's a potential antitrust nightmare that could force divestitures or cap growth, rendering the 'bargain-basement' entry point theory moot regardless of agentic tool adoption.
"Antitrust risk arrives after lock-ups and margin pressure have already hit valuations."
Gemini's antitrust framing assumes regulators will treat cloud commitments as enforceable moats at a trillion-dollar valuation, yet enforcement timelines for similar Microsoft-OpenAI ties show reviews drag 18-24 months post-IPO. That delay lets lock-up expirations and any margin compression from ChatGPT's pricing risk erode stakes first. The bigger unmentioned exposure is Zoom's 13% EV concentration amplifying volatility if antitrust headlines coincide with dilution.
"Cloud commitments face margin renegotiation risk, not antitrust risk—and that's worse for Anthropic's IPO thesis because it happens faster."
ChatGPT's margin compression risk is real, but the antitrust angle Gemini raised deserves sharper pushback. FTC enforcement on cloud commitments typically targets *exclusivity*, not revenue size. Anthropic's deals don't prohibit competitors from using AWS/GCP—they just fund Anthropic's compute. That's subsidy, not moat. Regulators care about whether Amazon/Alphabet can *block* rivals, not whether they fund one. The real risk: if Anthropic's growth slows, these commitments become sunk costs the cloud providers resent, triggering renegotiation pressure that kills the margin story faster than antitrust action.
The panel consensus is bearish on Anthropic's IPO, citing concerns about unrealistic revenue projections, heavy dilution risk, potential margin compression due to cloud pricing, and antitrust risks from heavy reliance on Amazon and Alphabet infrastructure.
None identified.
Unrealistic revenue projections leading to a 'valuation trap' and significant lock-up expiration dumping.