This Hidden AI Stock Is Up 40% in a Year, and Wall Street Just Raised Its Price Target to $500

Key Points
Micron’s HBM supply is already committed for 2026.
The artificial intelligence (AI)-powered data center demand is expected to account for over 50% of DRAM and NAND TAM in 2026.
A persistent supply-demand imbalance is driving Micron’s pricing power.
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The global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout relies not only on compute capacity but increasingly on memory and storage. That is exactly why Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is positioned as one of the most important technology players in this AI boom.
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Shares of the chipmaker have already surged almost 40% so far in 2026 (as of March 23). Wall Street is increasingly recognizing that memory is a critical bottleneck to expanding AI infrastructure.
That view has further strengthened following the company's second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings results (ended Feb. 26) and has prompted research firm Needham to raise its price target to $500 from $450 while maintaining a buy rating. The median target price is already $530, implying an upside potential of about 30%.
So, the key question is whether Micron is riding another memory chip cycle or if this marks a structural shift in the memory industry.
Memory is becoming a strategic asset
Micron's second-quarter results were impressive. The company's revenue soared 196% year over year and 75% sequentially to $23.9 billion, while non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share surged 682% year over year and 155% sequentially. Gross margins hit a record 75%, while operating margin reached 69%. The company also generated $6.9 billion in free cash flow.
Micron's third-quarter forecast also was exceptional. It expects revenue of $32.75 billion to $34.25 billion, while diluted earnings per share are projected to be in the range of $18.75 to $19.55.
These outstanding numbers are the result of the changing position of memory in the overall technology industry. The rapid adoption of AI has positioned memory as a strategic asset, since Micron now expects AI-driven demand in data centers to account for more than 50% of the DRAM and NAND target addressable market (TAM) in 2026.
AI workloads require significantly higher memory capacity and bandwidth than traditional computing, driving a rapid increase in memory capacity per server. In fact, memory requirements in advanced AI systems have already doubled in just a year.
At the same time, this demand is not limited to data centers. AI is driving higher memory usage across PCs, smartphones, and automotive systems and even in robotics. Hence, memory demand is becoming more durable and less dependent on any single end market.
HBM is a catalyst
Increasing demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a critical component of modern AI accelerators, is a key growth catalyst for Micron. As AI models have grown more complex, they increasingly depend on faster data movement between processors and HBM on the chip.
Micron has already begun volume shipments of its HBM4 products, designed for Nvidia's planned Vera Rubin systems, in the first quarter of the calendar year 2026. The company is also advancing development of its next-generation HBM4E products and expects to increase volume in 2027. The company expects these products to deliver significant performance and capacity improvements to further support complex AI workloads.
Micron has also said that its HBM supply for 2026 is effectively sold out, with the company already securing pricing and volume commitments from customers.
Supply-demand mismatch is driving pricing power
Memory supply is not keeping pace with the surge in demand. This dynamic is driving continued pricing improvement across Micron's end markets. In the second quarter, the company noted that DRAM prices rose in the mid-60% range sequentially, while NAND prices increased in the high-70% range. Management expects the supply-demand imbalance in memory to persist well beyond 2026.
Micron expects DRAM supply to grow in the low-20% range in 2026. Supply growth is constrained by limited cleanroom capacity and by smaller increases in memory output per wafer (efficiency gains) from newer memory manufacturing technologies. Additionally, new fabs take years to become operational and require significant capital investment. HBM is also consuming a large share of DRAM capacity, further tightening supply.
Beyond DRAM, Micron is also witnessing supply-demand imbalances across other memory products, such as low-power DRAM, NAND, and data center SSDs. These memory products are increasingly used in AI inference (real-time deployment of models in production environments) workloads, where companies are optimizing architectures for cost and efficiency. As a result, Micron can only meet about 50% to two-thirds of customer demand in the medium term.
The business strategy
Micron is entering into strategic customer agreements (SCAs) with customers that involve specific commitments over multiple years. The company recently signed its first five-year SCA, which is a significant change from its traditional one-year contracts. These agreements are designed to provide greater visibility, supply commitments, and stability for the next few years.
Micron is investing aggressively to expand its production capacity. The company expects fiscal 2026 capital expenditures to exceed $25 billion, with further increases planned for 2027. The company plans to invest in clean room facilities, new fabs, advanced HBM packaging, and expanded manufacturing capacity globally.
Valuation
Despite the many pros, Micron trades at only about 4.3 times forward earnings. This is very conservative for a company with triple-digit percentage revenue growth, record margins, and free cash flow. That disconnect has led Wall Street research firms, including Needham, to raise their target prices for the company.
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Manali Pradhan, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.