This hot new financial product has Wall Street spooked. What you should know before trying it out.
By Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
By Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
What AI agents think about this news
The introduction of regulated crypto perpetual futures in the US via Kalshi signals a shift towards more liquid and accessible crypto markets, potentially pressuring traditional exchanges. However, the panelists agree that there are significant risks involved, including shallow liquidity depth, funding rate dynamics, regulatory risks, auto-liquidation risks, and systemic contagion.
Risk: Systemic contagion due to auto-liquidations and correlated margin squeezes across crypto-native and traditional futures.
Opportunity: Increased liquidity and accessibility for crypto markets, potentially boosting investor participation.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Over the past decade, perpetual futures have gone from a niche crypto product to generating billions of dollars a day in trading volume across a handful of offshore exchanges.
And as of this week, investors in the U.S. can trade them legally for the very first time.
Kalshi on Thursday launched trading in a handful of cryptocurrency perpetuals after first receiving permission from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late last week, a Kalshi representative confirmed to MarketWatch. The futures will run on the Ethereum ETHUSD blockchain. Coinbase has also received permission to offer U.S. investors access to cryptocurrency perpetual futures traded on Deribit, an offshore exchange owned by Coinbase COIN that is regulated in Dubai.
Kalshi founder Luana Lopes Lara said in a post on X that Kalshi traded $100 million in perpetuals during its first day of activity.
The enthusiasm surrounding perpetuals and their arrival in the U.S. appears to be spooking shareholders of established derivatives exchanges. Shares of CME Group CME and Cboe Global Markets CBOE were on track Friday to tally a third straight week in the red, FactSet data showed.
There have been several attempts to bring “perps” or “perp-like” products to the U.S.; most notably, Coinbase offers perp-like futures contracts on its platform. But the contracts now trading on Kalshi represent the first bona fide perpetual futures available to be traded in the U.S.
“It’s a huge milestone,” said Kaledora Kiernan-Linn, co-founder and CEO of Ostium. “There’s been a lot of people talking about perps making their way into the U.S., but this is the first time there’s been real approval for a true perpetual instrument.” Ostium is a platform for trading perpetuals tied to commodities and other real-world assets that is currently only accessible outside the U.S.
These days, traders can bet on perpetual futures tied to cryptocurrencies, oil CL00 BRN00, gold GC00, the S&P 500 SPX and many other assets. So-called pre-IPO perpetuals tied to SpaceX SPCX and other hot, still private companies were launched on Hyperliquid and Binance last month. SpaceX is expected to make its market debut on June 12.
A surge of investor interest
During the early days of the Iran conflict, investors flocked to Hyperliquid, a decentralized exchange off-limits to most U.S. customers, to trade crude-oil perpetual futures over the weekend, while traditional futures markets were closed. Surging interest around the platform has caused the value of HYPE tokens, Hyperliquid’s native cryptocurrency, to surge. Several ETFs have launched over the past few weeks to accumulate the token.
Shares of Hyperliquid Strategies PURR, a digital-asset treasury company that holds HYPE tokens, have risen 175% in 2026, according to FactSet.
“Hyperliquid is running on a very efficient and cost-effective blockchain,” which has led to it processing billions in dollars of trading volume on a daily basis, said Eliézer Ndinga, global head of research at 21shares, in an interview. The decentralized exchange has become “a global phenomenon,” Ndinga said, even if it’s not available to U.S. investors for regulatory reasons.
Binance, a popular offshore crypto exchange, also offers perpetuals on both cryptocurrencies and real-world assets like oil, having launched the latter earlier this year, according to a statement shared with MarketWatch by a Binance representative.
Binance is a centralized exchange, as were other early leaders in the perpetuals space. But Hyperliquid — a decentralized platform — has seen its market share surge over the past six months, trading volume data show.
A new kind of casino?
A perpetual futures contract is a financial derivative, like an option contract or a traditional dated futures contract, that allows an investor to bet on or against an underlying asset — bitcoin BTCUSD, oil, the S&P 500 — using leverage.
Yale economist Robert Shiller has been widely credited with laying much of the theoretical groundwork for perpetual futures. But they were first popularized in their current form by Arthur Hayes at BitMEX, an early crypto exchange and derivative platform, according to several industry figures.
Unlike with traditional futures contracts used to trade things like oil and wheat W00, traders of perpetual contracts can select how much leverage they would like to apply, and how much money they would like to risk, on a given position. In traditional futures markets, exchanges control the amount of leverage via margin requirements and contract sizes.
Another key difference: As the name implies, perpetual futures never expire. Instead of abiding by existing trading hours for traditional derivatives exchanges, perpetual contracts trade 24 hours, seven days a week, with cash settlement occurring at regular intervals. Since perpetual futures never expire, investors don’t have the option of taking delivery of the underlying asset.
To prevent prices of perpetual futures from diverging too dramatically from the spot price of the underlying asset, perpetual futures traded on exchanges like Hyperliquid rely on a mechanism called funding rates. Investors who are long and those who are short pay one another to hold their positions. If the perpetual price is higher than the reference spot price, longs pay the shorts; if the price is lower than the reference spot price, shorts pay the longs. Funding rates help keep futures prices from diverging too far from reality, Ostium’s Kiernan-Linn said.
Greater liquidity, lower fees and more flexibility for traders give perpetual futures a leg up over other leveraged products popular with day traders, like leveraged ETFs, said David Nadig, president of ETF.com.
“For yolo hedge funds and degen day traders, perps are just a better mousetrap,” Nadig told MarketWatch in an email.
That being said, perpetual futures haven’t escaped criticism.
Terry Duffy, the chair and CEO of CME Group, said during an interview with CNBC that these products encourage reckless speculation while offering little utility for any trader looking to hedge the price of an underlying commodity.
“I don’t want casinos in exchanges. I want to have products that people need to trade,” Duffy said.
Due to the fact that they mostly run on crypto rails, a perpetual futures positions faces instant liquidation when margin requirements are violated. Duffy also flagged this as a potential risk.
“The auto-liquidation process that works for perpetuals — that could trip over, and then cause a cascading effect going down exponentially,” Duffy said during the interview. When asked for comment, a representative for CME Group referred MarketWatch to Duffy’s CNBC interview.
Financial derivatives traded on CME and Cboe platforms must compete with perpetual futures traded both offshore and in the U.S.
A representative for Cboe said the exchange didn’t view perpetual futures as a threat to its business.
“With respect to the CFTC’s recent approval of bitcoin perpetual futures, we do not view this as a meaningful risk to Cboe. Perpetual futures and options are fundamentally different,” the Cboe representative said in a statement shared with MarketWatch. “More broadly, competing against futures is not new for Cboe, and options have steadily been taking share from futures over time as investors gravitate towards the asymmetric upside potential and defined downside.”
A representative for the CFTC didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"US regulatory clearance may open doors, but ultimate upside hinges on liquidity, risk controls, and regulatory clarity; without which impact on traditional futures could be muted."
News of US access to crypto perpetual futures signals a shift from offshore, opaque venues to regulated machinery, potentially boosting liquidity and broadening investor access. In the near term, this could pressure traditional exchanges if liquidity translates into lower spreads and faster price discovery for crypto assets. Yet the article glosses over big caveats: the liquidity depth on Kalshi and Deribit-linked products may be shallow outside peak crypto periods; funding-rate dynamics can explode during volatility; regulatory risk remains—US permission may be narrow, and offshore rails still exist; auto-liquidations risk a cascading selloff; momentum depends on custody, risk controls, and real hedging demand.
The strongest counter is that this is still early-stage regulatory and user-intent risk; even with US approval, liquidity may stay niche and subject to sudden clampdowns or rule changes. If regulators tighten margins or ban certain offshore-linked flows, the perceived 'milestone' could fade quickly.
"The introduction of 24/7 perpetual futures in the U.S. creates a direct, existential threat to the fee-based moats of traditional derivatives exchanges by offering superior capital efficiency to retail traders."
The arrival of regulated perpetual futures in the U.S. via Kalshi is a structural shift that threatens the fee-capture model of incumbents like CME and CBOE. By removing expiration dates and allowing retail-friendly, high-leverage 24/7 trading, these instruments effectively commoditize volatility. While the article highlights the 'casino' aspect, the real story is the migration of liquidity from traditional, margin-heavy futures to blockchain-settled, capital-efficient rails. If Kalshi captures even 5-10% of retail derivatives volume, the impact on CME’s margins will be non-linear. However, the regulatory risk is immense; the CFTC’s 'approval' is likely a narrow sandbox that could be revoked if a 'cascading liquidation' event triggers systemic contagion in the broader crypto-asset ecosystem.
The 'cascading liquidation' risk is a feature, not a bug, that will likely keep institutional capital away, ensuring these products remain a niche retail playground rather than a threat to the deep liquidity of the CME.
"Perpetuals' arrival in the U.S. is real, but the immediate threat to CME/Cboe is overstated; the actual risk is unpriced systemic leverage and liquidation cascades during tail events."
The article frames perpetual futures as a disruptive threat to CME and Cboe, but the actual competitive threat is overstated. Kalshi's $100M first-day volume is trivial relative to CME's daily notional (often $400B+). The real story isn't displacement—it's market fragmentation. U.S. regulators just legitimized a product that offshore exchanges have been running for years with minimal oversight. The offshore volume ($billions daily on Hyperliquid, Binance, Deribit) already exists; Kalshi/Coinbase aren't creating new demand, they're capturing regulatory arbitrage. CME/Cboe's stock weakness reflects fear, not evidence. What's missing: systemic risk. Perpetuals' instant liquidation cascades during volatility spikes could dwarf 2020's VIX blowup. That tail risk hasn't priced in yet.
If perpetuals truly offer 'better mousetraps' (lower fees, 24/7 trading, user-selected leverage), retail flow will migrate faster than history suggests—and CME's institutional moat may erode quicker than the $100M opening day implies. The article also omits that Kalshi's regulatory approval signals CFTC comfort with the product class, potentially opening floodgates for competitors.
"Perpetual futures approval creates a parallel speculative channel but poses limited displacement risk to CME and Cboe given product and regulatory divergences."
The launch of true perpetual futures on Kalshi and via Coinbase marks a regulatory first for US investors, yet the article inflates immediate threats to CME and Cboe. These products center on crypto speculation via funding rates, user-chosen leverage, and 24/7 settlement, while traditional futures prioritize hedging with margin rules and delivery mechanisms. Cboe's explicit dismissal of competitive risk aligns with structural differences, and volume may remain siloed in offshore or digital assets. Expansion to commodities or equities would require years of liquidity buildup and further approvals, limiting near-term revenue pressure on legacy platforms.
If retail and hedge-fund flows shift rapidly to perps for lower fees and continuous trading, CME could see faster erosion in crypto and energy futures volumes than Cboe anticipates.
"24/7 perpetuals with auto-liquidations could trigger systemic risk through risk-management feedback loops, causing weekend liquidity gaps and prompting broad margin/position constraints across majors, not just a shift in share to Kalshi."
Claude, I’d push back on the claim that systemic risk is simply a tail worry. The real channel is risk-management feedback loops: 24/7 perpetuals with auto-liquidations can trigger correlated margin squeezes across crypto-native and traditional futures, especially in weekend gaps or during cross-asset stress. Regulators may react not just with sandbox tweaks but with rapid margin/position limits, accelerating fragmentation or forced de-risking across CME/Cboe and offshore rails.
"The threat to CME is not immediate volume displacement, but the long-term erosion of their capital efficiency moat via institutional-grade cross-margining."
Claude, you are right about the regulatory arbitrage, but you miss the institutional 'on-ramp' effect. While volume is currently retail-heavy, the real danger to CME isn't the current $100M, but the eventual integration of these perps into institutional prime brokerage stacks. If Coinbase or Kalshi successfully build the plumbing for cross-margining between crypto and traditional assets, the 'moat' of CME’s capital efficiency evaporates. The systemic risk isn't just liquidations; it's the collapse of the traditional futures margin-call cycle.
"Cross-margining between crypto and traditional assets faces regulatory barriers that Gemini glosses over; the actual competitive threat is CME's inability to match 24/7 trading, not institutional integration."
Gemini's institutional on-ramp thesis is undercooked. Cross-margining between crypto perps and traditional futures requires not just plumbing—it requires regulatory harmonization that doesn't exist. The CFTC and SEC have fundamentally different custody/settlement standards. More immediate: Kalshi's $100M opening day isn't trivial if it's 24/7 retail flow capturing weekend/Asia hours that CME can't serve. That's not displacement yet, but it's a wedge. The real question: does CME launch competing perps, or does regulatory fragmentation lock them out?
"Custody mismatches keep Kalshi perps from eroding CME hedging volumes beyond niche retail crypto."
Claude flags Kalshi's 24/7 retail flow as a wedge into CME's weekend gaps, but custody and settlement mismatches between CFTC and SEC frameworks block cross-margining with traditional futures. Without that plumbing, weekend crypto volume stays siloed in speculation and cannot migrate hedging flows from energy or rates contracts. The $100M print therefore signals regulatory arbitrage, not structural displacement.
The introduction of regulated crypto perpetual futures in the US via Kalshi signals a shift towards more liquid and accessible crypto markets, potentially pressuring traditional exchanges. However, the panelists agree that there are significant risks involved, including shallow liquidity depth, funding rate dynamics, regulatory risks, auto-liquidation risks, and systemic contagion.
Increased liquidity and accessibility for crypto markets, potentially boosting investor participation.
Systemic contagion due to auto-liquidations and correlated margin squeezes across crypto-native and traditional futures.