Time to normalize expectations for Nvidia after unprecedented hypergrowth: Cleo Capital

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Nvidia (NVDA) reported fiscal 2026 revenue of $215.94B, up 65.47% year-over-year, with Q4 reaching $68.13B in revenue and Data Center segment hitting $62.31B, though year-over-year growth has decelerated from 69.2% in Q1 to a low of 55.6% in Q2.
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Investors are shifting focus from Nvidia’s hypergrowth trajectory to whether the company can sustain dominance at normalized 20-30% growth rates as the primary destination for an estimated $1 trillion in AI infrastructure spending diverts capital from other market sectors.
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NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) has delivered one of the most extraordinary growth runs in corporate history. But Sarah Kunst of Cleo Capital thinks it may be time for investors to recalibrate expectations.
Speaking after Jensen Huang's GTC conference, where he extended and raised a previous forecast for AI infrastructure spending, Kunst put it this way:
"Just $1 trillion between friends. We have been grappling with that when it comes to Jensen and Nvidia for a while. What they did over the last five or seven years is unprecedented and we have to come back to earth a little and say, this is one of the longest tenured, most respected CEOs. The company is doing incredibly well. For the broader market maybe we don't want to see the hyper growth spend because those are dollars coming out of other companies and going into Nvidia. So maybe it is ok to slowly let the air out and just grow at a normal growth stage."
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Nvidia just closed fiscal 2026 with $215.94 billion in revenue, up 65.47% year over year, and $96.58 billion in free cash flow. Q4 alone printed $68.13 billion in revenue, up 73.2% year over year, with Data Center revenue hitting $62.31 billion and Networking up 263%. These are not the numbers of a company in trouble.
But Kunst's point is not about trouble. It is about math and market dynamics. When one company is the primary destination for a trillion dollars in capital spending, every dollar flowing to Nvidia is a dollar not compounding elsewhere. The broader market has a genuine interest in seeing that spending pace moderate.
The growth deceleration story is already unfolding. Year-over-year revenue growth ran at 69.2% in Q1, decelerated to 55.6% in Q2, recovered to 62.5% in Q3, then reaccelerated to 73.2% in Q4. The base comparisons get harder from here, and Q1 FY2027 guidance of approximately $78 billion explicitly excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China due to regulatory uncertainty.