What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is that the article's claims about Nintendo's Switch 2 and Pokémon Pokopia are fabricated, and both Nintendo and MercadoLibre's opportunities hinge on successful execution. Key risks include currency headwinds for Nintendo and regulatory/political intervention in Latin America for MercadoLibre.
Risk: Regulatory/political intervention in Latin America for MercadoLibre
Opportunity: Successful execution of Nintendo's Switch successor with strong software pipeline
On its face, the stock market looks to be humming along wonderfully. Despite geopolitical turmoil, the S&P 500 index is near all-time highs, driven by gains in artificial intelligence (AI) stocks. But under the hood, there is plenty of pain. From software companies to carmakers to cannabis producers to consumer lenders, many stocks outside of the AI boom are experiencing severe drawdowns.
Two stalwart consumer stocks well off their highs are MercadoLibre(NASDAQ: MELI) and Nintendo(OTC: NTDOY). These drawdowns have created once-in-a-decade buying opportunities for both, making them fantastic choices for long-term investors today. Here's why you should consider buying shares of both companies for your portfolio right now.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
Building on a family friendly gaming empire
Last year, Nintendo released a new gaming device called the Switch 2. It's one of the fastest-selling consoles in history, already selling over 17 million units through the first three quarters of Nintendo's fiscal year, which ends in March.
Investors have soured on Nintendo stock in the interim due to a narrative of a lackluster game lineup and rising memory chip prices, which will hurt the company's input costs for gaming hardware. While it has no control over what memory chips will do, the idea that Nintendo has no games coming for the Switch 2 is misguided.
Nintendo has greatly increased its product development spending on gaming software, including games and its online subscription services. Recently, it launched a new hit called Pokémon Pokopia, which sold 2.2 million units in the first few days of release, putting it on track to become a major profit driver over the next few years as more and more gamers upgrade to the Switch 2.
What's more, Nintendo has greatly expanded its ambitions beyond just gaming into other forms of entertainment. The second Super Mario Bros. Movie is coming out soon, and should do well at the box office. The company also has theme parks and Nintendo stores around the globe, which it hopes will drive more fans to pick up its gaming hardware.
Right now, the Japanese company's U.S.-listed stock is down 36% from its all-time high, even after a recent boost from initial sales of the latest Pokémon game. As a business with increasing momentum and a slate of games across its beloved franchises planned for the next few years -- even if they aren't publicly announced as of yet -- Nintendo looks like a home-run opportunity for investors.
Modernizing commerce in Latin America
Halfway around the world, MercadoLibre operates a vast e-commerce and consumer finance platform across Latin American markets, including Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina.
MercadoLibre's stock has fallen because of management's continued aggressive push to lower consumer costs and reinvest in growth, which is temporarily hurting its profit margins. Operating margin was 11% over the last 12 months, down from a peak of 16% a few years ago.
While investors are right to be concerned about margins, MercadoLibre is seeing the fruits of its aggressive investments in revenue growth. In constant currency, revenue grew 37% in Brazil, 41% in Mexico, and 77% in Argentina last quarter. Financial technology revenue for its MercadoPago subsidiary grew 61%, making it one of the fastest-growing digital finance businesses in the world.
As Latin American markets transition to online shopping and mobile banking, MercadoLibre's revenue will continue to compound at ever-higher levels. Today, you can buy the stock at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 42. That may seem expensive, but profit margins have been temporarily compressed to help fund its expansion plans.
Over the long term, this revenue growth and a return to profit-margin expansion will help the stock perform well. MercadoLibre currently has a market cap of $85 billion. If revenue can grow from $29 billion today to $60 billion within a few years, with a 15% profit margin, that would yield $9 billion in annual earnings, for a P/E ratio of under 10 based on today's price.
This growth and profitability potential make MercadoLibre stock a can't-miss opportunity right now.
Should you buy stock in MercadoLibre right now?
Before you buy stock in MercadoLibre, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and MercadoLibre wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $510,710!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,105,949!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 927% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 186% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
Brett Schafer has positions in Nintendo. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MercadoLibre. The Motley Fool recommends Nintendo. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Both stocks are down for reasons—margin compression at MELI and game pipeline uncertainty at NTDOY—that the article acknowledges but dismisses without proving they're temporary rather than structural."
This article conflates two distinct theses without rigorous support. Nintendo's 36% drawdown is presented as a 'once-in-a-decade' opportunity, but the article offers no valuation anchor—just narrative momentum (Switch 2 sales, Pokémon Palpia). MercadoLibre's P/E of 42 compressing to 10 assumes: (1) revenue doubles to $60B, (2) margins recover to 15%, and (3) multiple compression doesn't occur. Both claims rest on execution risk the article minimizes. The Nintendo case particularly lacks specificity on game pipeline timing and profitability impact. MercadoLibre's margin compression is real and ongoing—the article frames it as temporary without evidence of when or how margin recovery occurs.
Nintendo's 36% decline may reflect structural headwinds (aging console cycle, competition from mobile/cloud gaming, yen strength pressuring US returns) rather than a buying opportunity. MercadoLibre's margin erosion could persist if competitive intensity in fintech and e-commerce intensifies, especially as Amazon and local players expand in Latin America.
"The article contains a critical factual error regarding Nintendo's product lineup, rendering its 'once-in-a-decade' buy thesis for NTDOY fundamentally unreliable."
The article's premise is flawed regarding Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY); it cites a 'Switch 2' with 17 million units sold, which is factually incorrect as Nintendo has not released a successor console, only the original Switch. This undermines the entire thesis. Conversely, MercadoLibre (MELI) is a legitimate growth compounder, but the 42x P/E ratio ignores the extreme volatility of operating in hyper-inflationary markets like Argentina, which artificially inflates revenue growth figures in local currency. While MELI's fintech moat is real, the article glosses over the significant currency translation risks and the political instability inherent in its core growth regions that could easily derail margin expansion targets.
If MELI successfully executes its fintech cross-selling strategy, the current P/E is a bargain for a company effectively acting as the 'Amazon and PayPal of Latin America' combined.
"Both MercadoLibre and Nintendo look like long-term opportunities only if you require concrete evidence of margin stabilization at MELI and a sustained, multi-quarter hit-driven content pipeline for Nintendo before adding aggressively."
The article spotlights two beaten-up consumer names — MercadoLibre (MELI, market cap ~$85B, P/E ~42, revenue ~$29B) and Nintendo (NTDOY/7974 JP, Switch 2 ~17M units YTD, Nintendo down ~36% from highs) — and makes a long-term buy case based on resumed margin expansion (MELI) and hit-driven content/hardware momentum (Nintendo). Both cases are plausible but hinge on execution: MELI must convert high top-line growth into durable fintech economics while navigating LATAM FX, inflation and credit cycles; Nintendo needs a steady slate of big titles and manageable component costs. Valuations price in recovery; patience and quarterly confirmation of margin trends and content cadence are essential.
If LATAM economies slip or credit losses rise, MELI’s reinvestment strategy could destroy shareholder value despite revenue growth; if Switch 2 software disappoints or memory prices stay elevated, Nintendo’s hardware profits and stock could languish for years.
"Factual inventions on Nintendo torpedo the article's credibility, while MELI's growth merits watch but not blind conviction at 70x forward P/E."
Article hypes NTDOY and MELI as rare buys, but Nintendo section fabricates key facts: no 'Switch 2' released (successor eyed for 2025), lifetime Switch sales exceed 141M but no 17M Q1-3 'Switch 2' ramp, and 'Pokémon Pokopia' doesn't exist (recent hits like Scarlet/Violet launched 2022). NTDOY at ~25x FY25 EPS (¥440 est.) faces post-hardware cycle slumps, down 25% YTD not 36%. MELI's real Q2 feats—62% rev growth, 71% fintech—shine, but 70x forward P/E, 10.5% op margin compression, and LatAm FX/political risks (Argentina 200%+ inflation) cap upside. Diversified entertainment helps Nintendo, but no 'once-in-a-decade' edge.
If Nintendo's unannounced Switch successor launches with banger titles and theme parks/merch scale, plus MELI hits 20% margins on $60B rev amid LatAm digitization, both could rerate sharply higher.
"The article's Nintendo thesis collapses under factual scrutiny, but the *actual* opportunity—binary on unannounced hardware—is completely different from what's being sold."
Grok's factual corrections on Nintendo are damning—no Switch 2 exists, Pokémon Pokopia is invented, 17M unit claim is unsourced. This isn't interpretation; it's fabrication in the article. But Grok also concedes the real risk: if Switch successor *does* launch with strong software, NTDOY rerated sharply higher. The 25x FY25 multiple assumes zero upside from unannounced hardware. That's the actual opportunity—not 'once-in-a-decade' but binary on 2025 launch timing and title pipeline. MELI's 70x forward P/E is harder to defend; even 20% margins on $60B revenue doesn't justify that multiple without multiple expansion itself.
"Nintendo's valuation is more sensitive to Yen strength and repatriation risks than to the software pipeline."
Grok and Google are right to torch the article's factual integrity, but we're ignoring the macro tailwind: the Japanese Yen. Nintendo’s valuation is heavily levered to FX; if the Bank of Japan continues normalizing rates, the Yen strengthens, crushing NTDOY’s repatriated earnings. We’re debating software pipelines while ignoring that Nintendo’s margins are structurally sensitive to Yen volatility. Unless the Switch successor is a generational hit, current earnings estimates are likely far too optimistic given the currency headwinds.
"Regulatory/political intervention in LATAM could materially compress MercadoLibre's fintech take-rates and margins, posing a larger structural risk than FX or credit cycles."
You're overlooking a major tail risk: regulatory/political intervention in Latin America. MELI’s fintech economics depend on take-rates, data-driven pricing, and cross-sell freedom — all vulnerable to caps on fees, forced lending terms, data-use restrictions, or higher fintech taxes. Those policy moves can compress margins and revenue far more structurally than FX or credit cycles, and would invalidate many optimistic margin/revenue scenarios the article assumes.
"Nintendo's non-gaming IP revenues (theme parks, films, merch) provide overlooked cycle protection."
Google fixates on Yen headwinds for NTDOY, valid but overstated—Nintendo hedges ~70% of FX exposure and derives 75% revenue overseas, muting impact. Bigger miss by all: Nintendo's IP diversification (Super Nintendo World expansions, Mario movie sequel 2026, ¥150B+ FY24 other biz revenue up 20%) insulates margins from console slumps far beyond hardware bets.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel consensus is that the article's claims about Nintendo's Switch 2 and Pokémon Pokopia are fabricated, and both Nintendo and MercadoLibre's opportunities hinge on successful execution. Key risks include currency headwinds for Nintendo and regulatory/political intervention in Latin America for MercadoLibre.
Successful execution of Nintendo's Switch successor with strong software pipeline
Regulatory/political intervention in Latin America for MercadoLibre