UK house prices jump despite impact of Middle East conflict

House price growth in the UK has surprised estate agents and economists by jumping in April at the fastest annual pace in 11 months, according to Nationwide.

The UK’s biggest building society said its mortgage data showed that house prices unexpectedly rose by 3% in April on a year earlier, from 2.2% in March, leaving the typical UK property worth £278,880.

House prices also rose for the fourth consecutive month, increasing by 0.4% in April after a 0.9% increase in March. City economists had been expecting a 0.3% monthly fall.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: “Despite the uncertainty caused by developments in the Middle East and the subsequent rise in energy prices, the UK housing market has continued to regain momentum following the slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.”

On a three-month basis, which irons out some of the monthly volatility, prices rose to 1.2% from 0.7% in the previous quarter, the highest growth seen since February 2025.

Nationwide is the second-biggest mortgage provider in the UK and its monthly updates on house price growth, which are based on its own mortgage data, are one of the most closely watched gauges of how the housing market is faring.

Gardner said the house price rises were “somewhat surprising” given that indicators of consumer confidence had “weakened noticeably”.

A slew of recent surveys have suggested consumers are feeling shaky about the outlook for the economy and their personal finances, as they prepare for a potential fresh cost of living shock because of the fallout from the Iran war. The latest barometer from the data company GfK showed UK consumer confidence slid in April to its lowest level since October 2023.

A survey of estate agents last month also showed that new buyer inquiries and sales fell sharply in March, while expectations for near-term sales have become significantly more pessimistic.

However, Nationwide’s data suggests those looking to buy a home have been not been affected as much as feared by lenders withdrawing mortgage products and pushing up rates since the conflict in the Middle East began. The Bank of England voted to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday but warned that rates may need to rise if energy costs stay higher for a prolonged period.

“The market is likely being supported by the relative strength of household finances,” Gardner said. “In aggregate, household debt is at its lowest level relative to income for around two decades, and sizeable savings buffers have been built up in recent years.”

However, economists were sceptical the growth would last. Rob Wood, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “Unfortunately, we doubt prices can keep up their recent pace. Potentially, some of the prices included in the Nationwide index were from sales agreed in the early stages of the Iran war. The Nationwide measures prices at the mortgage approvals stage, partway through the purchase timeline.”

The rise in prices comes on a big day for the housing market, with the Renters’ Rights Act coming into law. The new law aims to give renters more security by banning no-fault evictions, limiting rent rises to once a year and only up to “the market rate”, as well as stopping landlords from accepting an offer over the asking price. Tenants will also have the legal right to request a pet, which landlords cannot unreasonably refuse.