Wall Street expects solid Q1 results for GM, as Ford and Stellantis try to gain traction

DETROIT — As America's largest automakers prepare to report first-quarter earnings results this week amid rising oil and commodity costs due to the Iran war, they find themselves traversing different terrains.

General Motors is on the smoothest track, and Wall Street analysts are expecting it to continue on its current path. Ford Motor is on a bumpy road as it detours from CEO Jim Farley's turnaround plan. And Stellantis is off-roading, going through some tough terrain, but it has its Jeep and Hemi V8-powered Ram brands to keep it moving.

Their individual circumstances are being exacerbated by current market conditions, as the auto industry faces massive losses from all-electric vehicles, slowing consumer demand for new vehicles, and rising prices from supply chain issues and the Iran war.

Wall Street's first-quarter expectations are a testament to their current terrains: GM is anticipated to outperform its crosstown rivals with adjusted earnings per share, or EPS, of $2.61 during the first three months of the year, followed by 19 cents for Ford, according to average estimates compiled by LSEG. Estimates from LSEG for Stellantis did not meet CNBC standards for comparison for the quarter, but the average forecast for the year is 73 euro cents (85 U.S. cents).

"GM has a strong multiyear track record of the three things I think are asked of any successful auto company: steady, slightly growing market share; solid margins ... and that solid margin performance translating to strong free cash flow, which ultimately funds a strong shareholder return," said James Picariello, BNP Paribas Equity Research senior analyst and head of U.S. auto research. "GM really has, and continues to, check all those boxes."

GM is rated overweight with a $94.71 target price, according to average ratings compiled from analysts by financial data provider FactSet. That compares with Ford and Stellantis at hold ratings with $13.67 and $9.09 price targets, respectively.

While many analysts have said they're optimistic about upsides for the "Detroit Three" companies, including potential rebates from tariffs and pricing resiliency, others are more bearish, largely due to the Iran war driving up raw material, freight and energy costs.

"[Automakers] ultimately pay the bills, and therefore we see downside risk to guides," Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan said in a March 31 investor note. "We forecast all the D3 miss Q1 consensus EBIT," Langan said, referring to earnings before interest and taxes.

GM is set to report its first-quarter results Tuesday, followed by Ford on Wednesday and Stellantis on Thursday.

GM

While the country's largest automaker has been steady, investors continue to watch its move away from EVs, tariff impacts and pending updates to its crucial full-size pickups.

Picariello and other analysts expect GM will maintain, if not slightly raise, its 2026 guidance. CFO Paul Jacobson has described 2026 as the "most stable start to a year that we've seen in the last five years," and GM has had a history of conservative forecasting.

"As a team, what we've really done over the last several years, and I think has been a great story of our resilience, is just focus on overcoming obstacles. It's a team that is focused on achieving our objectives, and we're doing it with more discipline and really looking forward to more of that in 2026," Jacobson said in mid-February.

GM's 2026 earnings guidance is better than its expectations and results from last year. It includes net income attributable to stockholders of between $10.3 billion and $11.7 billion; EBIT of $13 billion to $15 billion; and EPS of between $11 and $13 for the year.

GM's first quarter could be boosted by potential tariff rebates, resilient pricing, growth in entry-level vehicles and pullback in all-electric vehicles, according to Wall Street analysts.

The automaker, which is still analyzing its electric portfolio, has so far announced $7.6 billion in write-downs related to EVs.

Ford

Ford, meanwhile, hasn't been quite as steady as its crosstown rival.

The company announced a leadership change and business restructuring last week and is dealing with supply chain disruptions and cost increases for aluminum, a key material for its F-Series pickup trucks.

Ford said it lost 100,000 units of F-Series production last year due to fires at a New York aluminum plant of supplier Novelis. Ford has said the supplier isn't expected to be operational again until between May and September.

Ford has plans to recapture at least half of those units this year, but that may be harder to do than expected. Based on Ford's reported production numbers, the company would need to achieve near-record output for the remainder of the year, according to Picariello.

"It's a level that Ford has only done in a single month in the last two and a half years," he said. "I'm not raising alarm bells on Ford. I have a neutral rating, but that's a major, major watch item bucket to this earnings bridge for this year."

There are also concerns about aluminum prices, as Ford has sourced that material from other suppliers at a higher cost during the first half of the year. Amid the Iran war, aluminum spot prices also increased by 13% quarter over quarter, Deutsche Bank noted.

"Ford highlighted stability in aluminum supply costs for 2H26 as a positive factor. However, following Ford's 2026 guidance, the Middle East crisis has significantly impacted aluminum and steel prices," Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu said in an April 17 note to investors.

Ford's 2026 guidance includes adjusted EBIT of between $8 billion and $10 billion, up from $6.8 billion last year; adjusted free cash flow of between $5 billion and $6 billion, up from $3.5 billion in 2025; and capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, up from $8.8 billion.

Stellantis

Stellantis' global vehicle shipments during the first quarter increased 12% compared with a year earlier, as the automaker executes a sales recovery plan under CEO Antonio Filosa.

Shipments were up in every region, including a 4% increase in the U.S., which has been a focus for the company to regain market share following years of declines under Filosa's predecessor Carlos Tavares.

Jeep accounted for 47% of the company's U.S. sales during the first quarter, followed by Ram Trucks at 37%, combining for roughly 84% of Stellantis' U.S. volumes to begin the year.

"2026 is our year of execution. What we have committed to deliver is progressive performance improvements on all our business [key performance indicators]," Filosa said during the company's fourth-quarter results call. "2025 was a year of reset, with results that reflect the considerable cost of needed changes."

The automaker, which formed in 2021, reported its first-ever annual loss of 22.3 billion euros ($26 billion) in 2025 after booking substantial write-downs amid a major strategic shift away from EVs that included 25.4 billion euros in write-downs.

While investors will be watching Stellantis' first-quarter results for signs of traction in the company's turnaround plan, they are anxiously awaiting the company's capital markets event next month where Filosa has said he will lay out the company's future plans.

Stellantis' 2026 forecast includes a mid-single-digit percentage increase in net revenue and a low-single-digit adjusted operating margin.

"The bar is set particularly low in all metrics, and we see opportunities but also risks into 2026 as the sequential product improvement is not translating into clear share gains yet, potentially impacting price, margin and [free cash flow] pressure," Morgan Stanley analyst Javier Martinez de Olcoz Cerdan said in a Feb. 3 investor note downgrading the stock.

— CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.