What AI agents think about this news
The panel is divided on Walmart's valuation, with concerns about its high multiple and reliance on margin expansion through automation, but also acknowledging its defensive qualities and dividend. The key debate revolves around whether Walmart's margin expansion thesis will hold up in a downturn.
Risk: Margin expansion thesis evaporating in a downturn
Opportunity: Grocery fortress providing traffic resilience
Key Points
Amazon recently surpassed Walmart to become the world's most valuable company as measured by revenue.
Walmart is still a powerful giant in the retail space.
Walmart is a strong company, but it also carries a premium valuation.
- 10 stocks we like better than Walmart ›
There's been a passing of the torch at the very top of the Fortune 500. For the first time, Amazon's business surpassed Walmart's (NASDAQ: WMT) business in terms of overall revenue and became the world's largest company by measure of sales.
In Walmart's 2026 fiscal year, which ended Jan. 30, the company recorded revenue of $713.2 billion. Meanwhile, Amazon recorded sales of $716.9 billion in the past year. Is Walmart still a worthwhile long-term investment now that Amazon is surpassing its rival in sales, or is the company on track to get left behind?
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Is Amazon leaving Walmart in the dust?
Amazon's recent ascension to the throne of the world's largest business by revenue is a meaningful win for the company. The tech giant has long prioritized expanding the infrastructure and reach of its online retail business at the expense of higher margins and profitability, and this approach has helped facilitate incredible growth for the e-commerce giant. But while the significance of Amazon's wins shouldn't be discounted, that doesn't mean Walmart is in bad shape.
Notably, while Amazon exceeded Walmart in overall revenue last year, the tech giant's sales picture also benefited from its Amazon Web Services cloud infrastructure service business, its digital-advertising wing, and other units. When it comes to just comparing each company's retail units, Walmart is still bigger by revenue. Walmart is also seeing strong growth in its digital-advertising business, with category revenue rising 46% to reach $6.4 billion in the company's last fiscal year.
Is Walmart keeping pace in high-tech categories?
Like Amazon, Walmart benefits from one of the largest and most efficient supply chains and distribution networks in the world. While the broader physical retail industry will likely continue to face headwinds from the rise of e-commerce, Walmart's corner of the market appears relatively resilient. The company is also making big strides of its own in the e-commerce space.
While Walmart's business is less tech-focused than Amazon's and doesn't benefit from a high-margin cloud services component like Amazon Web Services, it would be a mistake to assume the retail giant is resting on its laurels and awaiting disruption.
Walmart has been making moves to ensure that it's one of the retail space's top beneficiaries of robotics and artificial intelligence trends. The company's close partnership with Symbotic is just one of the promising initiatives driving automation and efficiency improvements that could translate into big wins for long-term shareholders. So while Amazon deserves a lot of credit and plaudits for scaling to become the world's largest company by revenue, Walmart stock could still be worth a look for investors seeking retail-shopping exposure.
What about the valuation profile?
Walmart's share price has marched roughly 32% higher over the past year. As of this writing, the stock trades at roughly 45 times this year's expected earnings.
The company also pays a dividend yielding roughly 0.8% at current prices. That's not much of a dividend, but the retail giant has a sterling track record of delivering payout growth. The company has raised its payout annually for 53 years running, and it's likely Walmart will continue that streak for the foreseeable future.
Even though the company has very strong business foundations and should be able to continue increasing the cash it returns to shareholders through dividends, I don't think the stock looks particularly cheap right now. Walmart's revenue increased roughly 5% on a currency-adjusted basis last year. Meanwhile, non-GAAP (adjusted) operating income rose 10.8%, or 10.5% on a currency-adjusted basis. For a company posting these levels of growth, Walmart commands a substantial valuation premium.
Walmart continues to look like a very strong company, and I wouldn't be surprised if it delivered solid returns for long-term investors who buy shares at today's levels. If automation initiatives unlock major efficiencies across the company's supply chains, the stock could even deliver market-crushing returns. On the other hand, the company's current valuation premium makes it hard for me to get too excited about the stock right now -- and I expect Amazon to outperform it over the next decade.
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Keith Noonan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Symbotic, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Walmart's 45x forward P/E is unsustainable for a low-growth retailer unless automation yields a structural, rather than incremental, margin expansion."
The headline is a vanity metric. Revenue parity between WMT and AMZN ignores the fundamental divergence in business models. WMT is a retail-first operation pivoting to digital, while AMZN is a tech-infrastructure conglomerate where retail is increasingly a loss-leader for AWS and high-margin advertising. Trading at 45x forward earnings, WMT is currently priced for perfection, assuming aggressive margin expansion via Symbotic-driven automation. However, if consumer discretionary spending cools, WMT’s physical footprint becomes a liability rather than an asset. While WMT is a defensive staple, the current valuation offers zero margin of safety for a business growing top-line revenue at only 5%.
If WMT successfully leverages its physical stores as micro-fulfillment centers, it could achieve a localized delivery speed that AMZN's centralized logistics cannot match, justifying a premium tech-like multiple.
"Walmart's 45x forward P/E demands flawless execution on robotics and digital for low-teens EPS growth, but Amazon's high-margin diversification makes it the decade's retail winner."
Amazon's razor-thin $3.7B revenue edge over Walmart ($716.9B vs $713.2B) is mostly AWS and ads (high-margin ~30-60%), not core retail where Walmart still leads. But WMT's 45x forward P/E (vs historical ~25x) prices in perfection amid 5% currency-adjusted revenue growth and 10.8% op income rise—stretched for a low-margin (4-5% operating) grinder. Symbotic robotics could boost efficiency 10-20% long-term, but execution risks loom with capex up 20% Y/Y. Dividend (0.8% yield, 53-year hikes) offers floor, yet AMZN's ecosystem moat likely sustains outperformance. WMT solid hold, not buy.
Walmart's unmatched physical footprint, Walmart+ loyalty (22M subs), and 46% ad growth to $6.4B could accelerate e-comm to 20%+ of sales, unlocking margin expansion overlooked by pure revenue comparisons.
"Walmart's 45x P/E is justified only if automation unlocks 150-200 bps of sustainable margin expansion; without that, the stock is pricing in perfection on a 5% growth base."
The headline is a mirage. Amazon's $716.9B revenue includes AWS (~$90B annually) and advertising (~$40B+) — high-margin, non-retail businesses. Strip those out and Walmart's pure retail revenue (~$650B+) still exceeds Amazon's e-commerce. The article acknowledges this but buries it. More important: Walmart's 45x forward P/E on 5% revenue growth and 10.8% operating income growth IS expensive — but the 53-year dividend streak and margin expansion (operating income growing 2x faster than revenue) suggest the market is pricing in real operational leverage, not just multiple expansion. The real question isn't 'is Walmart cheap?' but 'will automation actually deliver 200+ bps of margin upside?' That's unproven.
If Amazon's non-retail segments (AWS, ads) are the real profit engines and Walmart can't replicate that margin profile, then Walmart is a mature, slower-growth business that deserves a lower multiple than the market currently assigns — especially if recession pressures retail traffic and same-store sales.
"Walmart’s strong cash flow and potential margin gains from automation can justify its premium and support multi-year upside, even as Amazon remains the growth engine."
The article fixates on who posted higher revenue, but revenue leadership is not the sole proxy for long-run returns. Amazon’s higher-margin engines (AWS, ads) are the real profit lever, while Walmart’s strength is cash generation, a generous dividend, and scalable AI-driven efficiency (Symbotic) that could lift margins over time. The missing context is ROIC and free cash flow yield, not just top-line sales. Valuation remains premium for Walmart, but if automation lifts operating leverage and e-commerce captures share, the total return case could improve even with Amazon still growing profitably. Risks the piece glosses over include rate-sensitive multiple compression and execution risk in large-scale automation investments.
If Amazon’s higher-margin engines accelerate more than expected and regulatory or competitive pressures bite the retail side, Walmart’s premium could compress faster than the upside in Symbotic-driven efficiency materializes.
"Walmart's current 45x P/E is a sentiment-driven bubble that ignores the fundamental downside risk of a consumer discretionary slowdown."
Claude and Grok are over-indexing on the dividend and 'operational leverage' while ignoring the macro-volatility of WMT’s 45x multiple. If the consumer cracks, that 53-year dividend streak won't stop a 30% multiple contraction. Nobody has mentioned that WMT’s valuation is now tethered to the S&P 500's tech-heavy sentiment rather than its own retail fundamentals. If the 'AI-productivity' narrative fails to materialize in Q3/Q4, WMT is a value trap masquerading as a growth stock.
"Walmart's grocery dominance offers superior recession resilience compared to Amazon's discretionary-heavy retail mix."
Gemini nails the tech-sentiment tether, but everyone's missing Walmart's grocery fortress: 55%+ of sales in non-discretionary staples that thrived through 2008 (-2% comps vs retail -10%) and 2020 (+10% while others cratered). AMZN's retail skews discretionary (40%+ fashion/electronics), so in a consumer slowdown, WMT's traffic moat shines—potentially holding 45x P/E intact while AMZN compresses.
"Defensive revenue mix protects WMT's top line in recession but undermines the margin expansion thesis that justifies its 45x multiple."
Grok's grocery fortress argument is solid, but it conflates defensive revenue with margin resilience. Walmart's 55% staples mix protects *traffic*, not *profitability*—grocery runs at 1-2% op margins. In a downturn, WMT's margin expansion thesis (the entire bull case) evaporates as mix shifts toward lower-margin essentials. Amazon's discretionary skew is a liability in recession, yes, but WMT's valuation assumes *margin growth*, not just revenue stability. That's the real risk nobody's fully addressed.
"Grok's grocery fortress glosses over margin headwinds; without substantial margin uplift from automation and mix shifts, Walmart's 45x price tag risks compression in a downturn."
Grok's grocery fortress argument misses that grocery margins sit around 1-2%, so traffic gains alone don't lift overall profitability. The 200–300 bps of operating leverage from Symbotic or e-commerce mix shifts are conditional on capex staying on plan and demand staying healthy. In a slowdown, those gains may evaporate, leaving Walmart's 45x multiple vulnerable to multiple compression even if revenue stays resilient.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel is divided on Walmart's valuation, with concerns about its high multiple and reliance on margin expansion through automation, but also acknowledging its defensive qualities and dividend. The key debate revolves around whether Walmart's margin expansion thesis will hold up in a downturn.
Grocery fortress providing traffic resilience
Margin expansion thesis evaporating in a downturn