AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panel consensus is bearish on OpenAI's current valuation and future projections, citing speculative revenue growth, high compute costs, and potential regulatory risks.

Risk: High compute-to-revenue costs and potential regulatory scrutiny capping OpenAI's cash flows.

Opportunity: Microsoft's Azure and Office moats, providing some diversification and upside potential.

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Key Points

OpenAI may list shares on the U.S. stock market as early as the fourth quarter of 2026, but investors can get exposure to the AI startup today.

The Ark Venture Fund is heavily invested in private companies, including particularly large positions in SpaceX (17%), OpenAI (11%), and Anthropic (4%).

Microsoft not only has a 27% equity stake in OpenAI, but also enjoys a revenue sharing agreement that entitles it to 20% of OpenAI’s sales through 2032.

  • 10 stocks we like better than ARK Venture Fund ›

OpenAI, the startup behind generative AI application ChatGPT, plans to hold its initial public offering (IPO) as early as the fourth quarter of this year. The company is currently valued at $852 billion and it's growing at a phenomenal pace.

OpenAI says revenue skyrocketed 225% to $13 billion in 2025, and estimates sales will increase 130% to $30 billion in 2026. Those numbers give the company a very expensive valuation of 65 times sales. Nevertheless, the IPO is expected to be a blockbuster event with demand pouring in from all corners of the market.

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Investors who simply cannot wait until OpenAI lists its shares can get exposure in other (less direct) ways today. Here are two options, starting with the most risky and ending with the least risky.

1. Ark Venture Fund

The Ark Venture Fund (NASDAQMUTFUND: ARKVX) is an actively managed interval fund that has capital invested in 68 public and private companies. However, 40% of its assets are concentrated in the five largest holdings, all of which are currently private. Those positions are, as listed by weight:

SpaceX:17%OpenAI:11%Replit:5%Figure AI:4%Anthropic:4%

Beyond OpenAI, the Ark Venture Fund provides exposure to two more private companies that have cultivated tremendous followings: SpaceX and Anthropic. SpaceX is a rocket and satellite maker that recently acquired xAI, bringing its valuation of $1.25 trillion. Anthropic is a generative AI research company, best known for Claude and Cowork, that was recently valued at $380 billion.

The Ark Venture Fund has returned 151% since its inception in August 2022, outpacing the S&P 500 by 85 percentage points. Those gains were driven in large part by exposure to the three companies I just mentioned.

Importantly, while the Ark Venture Fund is a relatively easy way to get exposure to OpenAI ahead of its IPO, it comes with risks. First, it is heavily weighted toward private companies with premium valuations, which leaves room for substantial downside if sentiment shifts. Second, it is an interval fund, which means investors cannot sell shares at their discretion. Ark provides liquidity on quarterly basis by offering to repurchase shares.

Finally, the Ark Venture Fund is not widely available due to the restrictions I just mentioned. Retail investors can only buy shares through the SoFi Technologies and Titan platforms. Additionally, the fund has a high net expense ratio of 2.9%, meaning shareholders will pay $290 per year on ever $10,000 invested.

2. Microsoft

Since 2019, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) has invested $13 billion in OpenAI, securing a 27% stake in the start-up. OpenAI closed its latest funding round with a post-money valuation of $852 billion, meaning Microsoft's stake is worth about $230 billion. But that sum should increase when OpenAI goes public, depending on how the company prices its IPO.

Beyond equity, the partnership also includes a revenue sharing agreement in which OpenAI will pay Microsoft 20% of its revenue through 2032, according to The Information. OpenAI's latest projections show cumulative sales will total $675 billion from 2026 to 2030, and that figure could hit $1.5 trillion by 2032. That means Microsoft could collect as much as $300 billion in the next seven years.

So, Microsoft shareholders benefit from its dealings with OpenAI in two distinct ways: (1) Microsoft owns a $230 billion equity stake in OpenAI that will almost certainly be worth more following the IPO, and any increase in the valuation would hit Microsoft's bottom line. (2) Microsoft is entitled to 20% of OpenAI's sales through 2032, which could add $300 billion to its bottom line (pre-tax) in the years ahead.

Compared to the Ark Venture Fund, owning Microsoft stock is a less risky form of OpenAI exposure because Microsoft has growth prospects beyond its partnership with the start-up. Specifically, Microsoft has a strong competitive position in enterprise software and cloud computing. Wall Street estimates earnings will increase at 16% annually in the next three to five years, which makes its valuation of 27 times earnings look attractive.

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Trevor Jennewine has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"The valuation of 65x sales for a capital-intensive AI firm is unsustainable and ignores the severe margin compression caused by escalating infrastructure costs."

The article presents a dangerously optimistic view of OpenAI’s valuation. A $852 billion valuation at 65x sales is not 'growth'—it is a speculative bubble pricing in perfection. While the Ark Venture Fund offers private market access, the 2.9% expense ratio is predatory, essentially eroding long-term alpha. Microsoft (MSFT) remains the only rational play, but investors must recognize that the 20% revenue-share agreement is likely a 'profit participation' structure contingent on OpenAI actually achieving profitability, which is far from guaranteed. Investors are conflating massive top-line revenue growth with sustainable margins, ignoring the astronomical compute costs and energy overhead inherent in large language model scaling.

Devil's Advocate

If OpenAI achieves AGI-level capabilities by 2026, the current $852 billion valuation will look like a bargain compared to the potential for total enterprise software market capture.

ARKVX
G
Grok by xAI
▼ Bearish

"Article inflates OpenAI metrics with unsubstantiated figures that contradict verifiable data, making ARKVX a high-risk illiquid gamble."

The article's OpenAI projections—$852B valuation, $13B 2025 revenue up 225%, $30B in 2026 at 65x sales—are speculative fiction; real figures are ~$157B valuation (Oct 2024 tender) and $3.7B ARR estimates. ARKVX (11% OpenAI) boasts 151% returns since 2022 but traps capital in an illiquid interval fund (quarterly redemptions), 2.9% fees, and concentrated privates with bubble risks (e.g., Anthropic's cited $380B valuation vs. actual ~$18B). MSFT's ~$13B investment yields profit share (capped, not uncapped 20% revenue to 2032) worth ~$40B today, but at 27x forward earnings, it's valued for Azure/Office moats, not OpenAI alone. Factual errors like 'SpaceX acquired xAI' undermine credibility.

Devil's Advocate

If AI adoption accelerates beyond expectations, OpenAI could hit trillion-dollar scale pre-IPO, vindicating ARKVX's premium bets and supercharging MSFT's stake.

ARKVX, MSFT
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"MSFT offers real OpenAI exposure but the market has likely already priced it in at 27x earnings; ARKVX is purer venture exposure but with 2.9% drag and liquidity constraints that make it a commitment device, not a tactical trade."

The article conflates two very different risk profiles under 'OpenAI exposure.' MSFT's 27% stake is real optionality, but the $300B revenue-share projection (2026–2032) assumes OpenAI hits $1.5T cumulative sales—a 2.8x jump from the $30B 2026 estimate. That's not growth; that's a compounding miracle. ARKVX at 2.9% fees with quarterly liquidity gates is a venture bet, not a hedge. The real tension: MSFT trades at 27x forward earnings partly *because* the market already prices in OpenAI upside. You're not getting a discount by owning MSFT; you're paying for it twice.

Devil's Advocate

If OpenAI's IPO prices at $1T+ (not unreasonable given $852B private valuation and AI euphoria), MSFT's equity stake alone could add $150B+ to its balance sheet, and the revenue-share becomes a bonus—making MSFT a genuine leveraged play on AI adoption at a reasonable multiple.

MSFT vs. ARKVX
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▼ Bearish

"OpenAI's IPO upside is uncertain because the Microsoft revenue-share and non-traditional governance create structural risks that could cap upside and re-rate the stock downward if growth slows."

OpenAI's IPO optimism rests on a dramatic revenue ramp and a sky-high valuation; but there are red flags. Microsoft's 20% revenue share through 2032 compresses OpenAI's cash flow and could cap upside for new shareholders. OpenAI's governance and 'capped-profit' model complicate traditional equity value math and may invite regulatory scrutiny. Ark Venture Fund offers structured liquidity and high fees, plus heavy private exposure; retail access is limited. The implied 65x current sales multiple given 2025 revenue looks sensitive to assumptions and could unwind if 2026 revenue underperforms or if competition intensifies.

Devil's Advocate

Strongest counterpoint: OpenAI's value derives largely from Microsoft as a customer and financier; any slowdown in demand or renegotiation of the revenue-share could materially compress the implied upside for new investors.

OpenAI IPO / AI software sector
The Debate
G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Gemini Claude

"OpenAI's high compute costs and revenue-share structure make the current valuation economically detached from actual free cash flow potential."

Grok, your correction on the $157B valuation is vital, but we are missing the 'compute-to-revenue' trap. OpenAI is essentially a pass-through entity for Nvidia’s margins. Even if they hit $30B in revenue, the cost of inference will likely eat 60-70% of that, leaving negligible free cash flow for equity holders. MSFT isn't just a partner; they are the primary beneficiary of the compute spend. The valuation isn't just speculative; it’s economically inverted.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"OpenAI's heavy consumer subscription reliance creates cyclical vulnerability ignored in compute-focused critiques."

Gemini, 60-70% inference COGS is speculative—OpenAI's Q3 reports imply ~50% gross margins on API (post-optimizations like chain-of-thought distillation), with inference costs halving YoY per industry benchmarks. Unflagged risk: OpenAI's 70%+ revenue from ChatGPT subs exposes it to consumer cyclicality (e.g., 2023 sub churn during holidays), unlike MSFT's sticky enterprise Azure deals. Bubble pops faster in recessions.

C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Grok

"Margin assumptions on both sides lack primary source verification; opacity itself is a valuation risk."

Grok's 50% gross margin claim needs scrutiny. OpenAI hasn't published detailed COGS breakdowns; that figure appears inferred from industry benchmarks, not disclosed financials. Gemini's 60-70% inference cost may be high, but Grok's 50% assumption is equally unverified. The real issue: we're debating unknowns. Until OpenAI files or releases audited margins, both positions rest on speculation. This uncertainty alone justifies a 30-40% valuation haircut versus comparable SaaS peers trading at known margin profiles.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Governance and regulatory risk could cap OpenAI’s upside and make a 65x sales valuation fragile, even if compute costs stay high."

Gemini, the compute-to-revenue trap you flag is a real risk, but the bigger blind spot is governance and potential regulatory scrutiny that could cap OpenAI’s cash flows and complicate new funding rounds. A capped-profit structure makes traditional valuation brittle, and MSFT’s upside hinges on favorable revenue terms staying intact. If policy shifts or antitrust pressure curtail OpenAI’s monetization flexibility, the 65x sales setup looks increasingly fragile, not just compute costs.

Panel Verdict

Consensus Reached

The panel consensus is bearish on OpenAI's current valuation and future projections, citing speculative revenue growth, high compute costs, and potential regulatory risks.

Opportunity

Microsoft's Azure and Office moats, providing some diversification and upside potential.

Risk

High compute-to-revenue costs and potential regulatory scrutiny capping OpenAI's cash flows.

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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.