What a looming jet fuel shortage could mean for summer travel

Looming jet fuel shortages could throw a wrench into Americans' summer travel plans, especially for people flying overseas on international airlines. But there are a few steps consumers can take to insulate themselves and minimize disruption, travel experts said.

The Iran war and an associated disruption to global oil supplies are triggering fears that jet fuel stocks may soon begin to dwindle in certain parts of the world. The International Energy Agency said on Thursday that Europe may have just six weeks' worth of jet fuel left, for example.

Potential shortages and rising jet fuel costs have led some airlines to cut their flight schedules — potentially upending plans for those who must find alternative flights or choose to defer or cancel their travel altogether.

And while flight reductions have largely been modest to date, they could worsen just as peak summer travel season approaches.

"It's almost like they're on a timer," said Katy Nastro, a travel expert at Going, a travel deal website. "It's like the SATs: Once the timer is done" it's over, and they can't fly anymore, she said.

Jet fuel shortage tied to Iran war, Strait of Hormuz

The ongoing Middle East conflict has led Iran and the U.S. to impose a blockade on Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime route through which roughly 20% of the global oil supply transits.

About 25% to 30% of the world's jet fuel — which is refined from oil — also flows through the waterway, said Stephen Rooney, lead economist at Tourism Economics.

The U.S. is somewhat insulated from a potential jet fuel shortage relative to other parts of the world because it produces a significant portion of those fuel stocks domestically, Rooney said. But European and Asian carriers are more exposed because those regions rely more heavily on fuel imports.

"What if there isn't fuel to be bought at any price?" Rooney said. "That's a pretty unprecedented situation."

"I don't think we're at that full crisis point yet," he said. "Six weeks is a long time, so hopefully something can be resolved. We've still got time to get jet fuel flowing again."

While the U.S. may be spared from potential supply shortages in the coming weeks, low stocks elsewhere in the world would likely "put huge upward pressure" on jet-fuel prices for U.S. airlines, Rooney said.

Jet fuel is among the largest operating costs for airlines, and companies have taken a range of measures to blunt the financial impact of rising prices: increasing air fares, raising baggage fees, adding fuel surcharges and cutting flight capacity, for example.

"Non-US airline capacity to and from US markets for the June quarter 2026 is expected to contract 2.3% year-over-year ... as higher fuel prices and possibly limited jet fuel availability are leading to significant capacity cuts," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote in a research note on Sunday.

So far, only a handful of airlines have said they would trim flight schedules, and they have largely trimmed at the margins rather than making wholesale cuts, experts said.

Going's Nastro pointed to a few examples:

• Cathay Pacific Airways, a Hong Kong-based airline, said it will cancel about 2% of its scheduled passenger flights from May 16 to June 30, 2026.
• HK Express, Cathay's budget carrier, said it would cut about 6% starting May 11.
• German carrier Lufthansa is removing some planes from its CityLine subsidiary service due to "significantly increased kerosene prices," the company said last week.
• Dutch airline KLM said it would cut 160 flights in Europe next month, amounting to less than 1% of its flight schedule.
• Some companies have already signaled larger reductions: Vietnam Airlines said in March that it may cut up to 18% of its international flights and 26% of domestic routes in the coming months.

For an airline to cut perhaps 5% or less of its flight capacity "isn't huge in the grand scheme of things," Nastro said.

"So, while yes, there is a risk for flight cancellations due to capacity cuts [or] suspensions, it isn't necessarily bad news for your specific trip," she said.

President Donald Trump told CNBC on Tuesday that he thinks the U.S. will "end up with a great deal" with Iran to bring an end to the nearly two-month-long war. However, Trump also said the U.S. military is "ready" to bomb Iran if a deal isn't signed by the end of the two-week ceasefire deadline set to expire Wednesday.

"The longer this [conflict] lasts, the more capacity cuts are likely — and that's when things can get uglier," Nastro said.

What travelers can do

There are some things travelers can do to minimize the potential pain, experts said. Here are some tips.

1. Know your rights

Every airline has its own policies about what it owes passengers who face delays or cancellations.

To help you navigate your options, the U.S. Department of Transportation has a rundown of services that U.S. carriers have agreed to provide to customers to mitigate passenger inconveniences when a flight cancellation or delay is due to circumstances within the airline's control.

Federal rules require airlines to pay a prompt refund to a ticketed passenger — even those with non-refundable tickets — if they cancel a flight or make a significant change to the itinerary, regardless of the reason, according to the Transportation Department. To qualify for a refund, the passenger can't accept an alternative offered by the airline, such as rebooking on another flight.

Airlines generally offer travelers an alternative when they cancel a flight or make substantial changes, and may automatically rebook passengers on another flight, experts said.

But travelers don't have to accept that alternative. Passengers generally don't have to pay extra to choose another option, even if there's a fare difference, Nastro said.

Passengers may also be entitled to meal vouchers and hotel accommodations, for example, if their flight is impacted, and shouldn't be afraid to ask the airline for those things, said Sara Rathner, a travel expert at NerdWallet.

Document transactions and keep receipts to file a claim later, she said.

To see what options are available to you for refunds, meal and lodging vouchers, or frequent-flyer miles, depending on your carrier, the DOT has a dashboard outlining their policies for U.S. airlines.

2. Check your contact info

Make sure the airline has your correct contact information on file, in case it needs to get in touch with you about a flight change, Nastro said.

In your online flight reservation, make sure your phone number and email are up to date. Also check that the airline hasn't issued any notifications or messages, she said.

"The worst thing that can happen is you show up to the airport and your flight is canceled, and you didn't have any knowledge of that," Nastro said.

3. Act fast

"Act fast" if an airline contacts you about a canceled flight or a change to your itinerary, said NerdWallet's Rathner.

"The sooner you act in contacting the airline ... the more options you're going to have," she said. "You don't want to sit on this for too long."

Similarly, if you have travel plans, don't ignore emails, texts or other messages you receive from airlines in the lead-up to the flight, she said.

If your flight is canceled or severely delayed while you're at the airport, "take every possible avenue available to you" to understand your options, she said. Stand in line to speak with the gate agent while simultaneously calling the airline's customer service line or using its app, Rathner said.

3. Fly nonstop

Flying nonstop to a destination is generally more expensive than booking a flight with a layover.

However, it's a good strategy for travelers who can afford it and want to minimize disruptions, experts said.

"Right now, I'd say you're better off, if you can, flying nonstop," Going's Nastro said.

4. Consider travel insurance

Travel insurance or credit cards with travel benefits might cover unreimbursed expenses resulting from a disrupted itinerary.

However, covered expenses vary by policy, making it necessary for consumers to read the fine print, Rathner of NerdWallet said.

Certain policies, like those with "cancel for any reason" or "interruption for any reason" coverage, offer more flexibility to passengers but generally come with caveats, such as a higher upfront cost.