What AI agents think about this news
The panel is divided on Alphabet's position in Anthropic, with concerns about Anthropic's growth sustainability, model commoditization, and regulatory risks outweighing potential benefits from TPU cost advantages and Alphabet's 14% stake.
Risk: Anthropic's growth unsustainability and potential model commoditization
Opportunity: Alphabet's potential upside from Anthropic's growth via its 14% stake and TPU supply deal
In this episode of Motley Fool Money, Motley Fool contributors Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Rachel Warren discuss:
- Anthropic’s growth.
- Google’s big win.
- Foldable iPhones.
- Delta’s earnings.
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A full transcript is below.
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Travis Hoium: Anthropic is one of the fastest-growing companies in history, but there may be another winner investors can buy right now. Motley Fool Money starts now. Welcome to Motley Fool Money. I am Travis Hoium, joined today by Rachel Warren and Lou Whiteman. Guys, we’ve got to start with Anthropic. The talk of the week has been their announcement that they have gone from a $9 billion annualized revenue rate. Maybe not the best measure for revenue because it's not actually, but it gives you an idea how fast they're growing. $9 billion at the end of 2025, $30 billion at the end of the first quarter. Rachel, this is just absolutely insane growth from a company at that scale.
Rachel Warren: Yeah, that $30 billion run rate is actually just quite mind-blowing. I mean, you put that in perspective. Anthropic essentially tripled its business in just 90 days. I mean, we usually celebrate what a company doubles in a year, doing it in a single quarter. I think it shows that, at least for now, what many have framed as AI hype, if you will. It's turning into this massive enterprise land grab. This isn't just about startup growth. This is, I think, very much a fundamental shift. How the enterprise world is adopting AI across industries. I think something that Anthropic has really tried to put out there is very much this safety and reliability angle with businesses using Claude, whether it's healthcare giants, tech companies, or otherwise. I think in so doing, they've unlocked the corporate vault, so to speak. I think we're seeing businesses are finally moving past the experimental phase, and they're putting massive budgets behind these models, and that's creating exponential tailwinds for Anthropic.
Lou Whiteman: I feel like talking about this, we risk parroting or extending the AI hype because it's really hard to know exactly like to take a big picture look at this. I'd note that searches for Claude tripled over the last 90 days, according to Google Trends. That lines up with the revenue. Obviously, I think those are related. We know this. Claude is having its moment. Claude is all we've heard about for the last 90 days or so. That's great. If it's sustainable, it should mean that it's a good business, probably a better business than the other AI giant that wants to go public. But I think to assume that this continues is lower-case foolish? I mean, look, there are natural limits here to what people can spend. Travis, I think I said it to you, but there was a viral-linked post last week of a CEO bragging about their four-person company spending $125,000 a month on Anthropic right now. Yep. I'm just going to go out on a limb. I don't know anything about that business, but you cannot continue to triple that indefinitely. There's just not enough revenue there. This is great. I think all of this does, though, on the revenue side is tell us what we already knew, is that Claude is the only thing we've heard about over the last 90 days or so.
Travis Hoium: Their focus on coding specifically really seems to be their differentiator. I know the $20 a month that I'm paying them is probably not really moving the needle. It's really those enterprise customers that are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars per employee. The other angle to this, and this came out yesterday, was that they just signed another deal with Google. Google happens to own 14% of Anthropic. But this is going to be for use of TPUs, so they announced this with Google and Broadcom. They're using TPUs. We hear a lot about Nvidia, owning the market for artificial intelligence. It seems like right now the momentum is behind Anthropic, and Anthropic is moving to TPUs, so that seems pretty notable, Rachel.
Rachel Warren: It's a really interesting dynamic. Obviously, the move helps Alphabet, Google. I mean, Google has its own AI, Gemini, but it wants to be the landlord for everyone else through Google Cloud. Of course, giving Anthropic a large supply of its own specialized chips or TPUs is another key piece of the puzzle there. But I also think it really demonstrates the very strategic approach that Alphabet's taking. By providing significant computing power, they ensure that Anthropic, which is, of course, a major competitor to OpenAI, remains on Google Cloud. That strategy means that Google can benefit regardless of which AI model gains dominance. I think the other takeaway element here is something of a warning to Nvidia. Obviously, I don't think Nvidia is going anywhere. They have a significant backlog. They're a key leader in the space, but it shows that Google's custom chips could be a viable alternative. I think we might see a world in which other AI startups become less reliant on Nvidia hardware, 10, 15 years in these years ahead.
Lou Whiteman: I mean, I guess benefiting Anthropic to hurt OpenAI. I think it's maybe be careful what you wish for. I mean, Google's core business on the AI side, I think, is probably a competitor with them, and if anything, Anthropic has shown itself to be maybe a smarter competitor or a more disciplined competitor.
Travis Hoium: Well, more discipline, for sure. We've been talking about that for months. I just can't seem to get out of it.
Lou Whiteman: I mean, if I'm Google, maybe I would prefer OpenAI to stomp Anthropic in some regard. But look, I still worry that all of these models are heading in the same direction, and they're all commoditized. Having the multiple ways to win with partners, with investments, with just being the service provider versus the model, that makes a lot of sense to me. It plays to Alphabet’s strength. I think it's a good move for them, but if I'm Alphabet, I'm not sure I'm cheering the demise of OpenAI to the benefit of Anthropic.
Travis Hoium: Even the 14%?
Lou Whiteman: Yeah, I mean, that part. If I'm actually the product manager trying to roll out Gemini, I'm not caring that.
Travis Hoium: Got it. Yeah, because they're very real competitors seem to do a lot of the things that Gemini does not do well. It seems to me that just following this space, I don't have many specific investments that are just AI, but Alphabet's one that I own just because it seems like the only no-brainer, no matter what happens, they're going to be around in one way, shape, or.
Lou Whiteman: They will. I mean, the one note on that, though, is that part of it is backfilling what they could be losing. It's not necessarily just organic growth for them. If SRC does decline due to AI, their AI can backfill that, but it's not just the unbridled growth that it would be for some of these other companies.
Travis Hoium: Well, a lot that we are gonna definitely be covering over the next few months and years, likely on Motley Fool Money. Next, we're gonna get to where we may be using products like Claude, the new foldable iPhone. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
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Travis Hoium: Welcome back to Motley Fool Money with the Hidden Gems team. We got news this week that it seems like we're going to likely get a new foldable iPhone as early as September. Rachel, this has been rumored for years. We have other foldable phones out there. Is this notable, or is this just going to be another one of those, it's cool? You can make a VR headset. It's cool. You can do all these other things, but it's still not going to be a core product for them, or am I overthinking?
Rachel Warren: I mean, you're right. We've been hearing rumors about this for years. It seems like they're hitting a bit of a fever pitch. I think it's far too soon to say how much of a needle mover this will be. For Apple. I think a lot of us are thinking, do we need this? For most of us, our phones are already great. Folding a screened half can feel a bit like a flashy solution to a problem no one has. But if you think about why Apple would be doing this, okay? The smartphone market is maturing. Obviously, the excitement over having maybe a slightly better camera on the latest generation of one's iPhone is wearing off. I do think there's this idea where Apple is saying, maybe we need something that's a bit more futuristic, gives people a reason to maybe drop $2,000. On a phone again.
Apple is doing very well, right, from a financial perspective. They have record services revenue, massive cash pile. They're very profitable, but the hardware growth has been a bit flat. Of course, that's the core of their business, even though services are the fastest-growing area. I think it's interesting, you think about markets like China. Foldable phones are seen as a status symbol, and a lot of Apple's competitors broadly in Asia have been introducing their own versions of this. There was actually a survey that went around where about 40% of iPhone users that were surveyed in Asia were saying that a foldable could be the ultimate weapon to reclaim a top spot that they might be interested in a folding model. We'll see if this is something that actually moves the business. It might just be a niche product that a few people buy. If Apple pulls it off, I think it proves that they can still really innovate. If it flops, I think it could be a very expensive distraction from their AI goals.
Lou Whiteman: I was trying to figure out if I think this is the best of Apple or the worst of Apple. I think the answer is probably both. In one sense, look, the Samsung version has gotten mixed reviews. The reports say that that is exactly what Apple was targeting here, to areas where Samsung has fallen short, durability, the screen creases, or whatever. In a sense, this could be a classic case of Apple not being first, but being best, refining and winning. If this is today's version of the next big thing, maybe we should just give up on the Steve Jobs turtleneck version of Apple. I mean, in a way, maybe, Steve, you've conditioned us.
Travis Hoium: We're going to get to the point soon where people don't remember that.
Lou Whiteman: Well, right, maybe, maybe. But I do feel like with Apple, there is still this weird expectation of just wait for it. They're cooking up something. What? I think all of the evidence suggests that those days are over. If they were cooking up something, we would know it by now. We'll see. Travis, we've talked about it, whether or not anybody wants an AI pin on their lapel, we'll see. But it Look, this is both a very good company doing things they should do. The $2,000 plus sales price, if assuming people will pay for it, is a nice revenue boost, so it is incremental gains. But I think just the mindset, all of us old that are used to the guy in the turtleneck saying one more thing. Those days are over, and we need to value this as a mature company that just continues to create incremental value off of their core products.
Travis Hoium: The one thing that I think is interesting with this product in particular is Rachel. This is really just a China product. If you read the book, Apple in China, one of the things that I took away from that was that Apple was such and iPhones were such a status symbol. It was not. Hey, this is the most productive use of my money. It was just look, I have an iPhone, and you would spend a insane amount of your annual earnings to buy that iPhone. The cultural differences between China and devices in the U.S. and devices, I think, is not something that we necessarily fully understand as U.S. investors, but that seems to be when they make some of these changes and come up with something that looks a little bit different. It spikes in China because there is still that Apple cache. Maybe that is the answer. Is that it's just something that's made for China? But I keep going back to, is the iPhone just too perfect of a product? Is there just no better answer than here's this flat police piece of glass that's a computer that can fit in your pocket, and we're just not going to get anything better? Maybe that's the simple answer.
Lou Whiteman: I mean, honestly, the answer is the Google Pixel.
Rachel Warren: I beg to differ, Lou.
Travis Hoium: Alright, we'll have to have our iOS-Android battle in a future show. When we come back, we are going to Lou's thoughts on the latest from Delta. You're listening to Motley Fool Money. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money with the Hidden Gems team. Delta reported earnings this morning, Lou. What did we learn?
Lou Whiteman: I don't want to bore everybody with all of the numbers just because, look, honestly, they preannounced this two weeks ago. That's how the airline industry works, where everything that they announced today was basically what they said they would do. Great quarter, though, and things are holding up, much more interested in what they're seeing into the future. So far, so good, I think the airline said it's corporate clients survey, 85% expect to maintain or increase their travel spend in the second quarter. Low teens, revenue growth. We're expecting 10% or so. Delta, I marvel here I mean, they're finally the debt is down below COVID levels. We like to see that. Again, they gave us exactly what we wanted, but you marvel here is, I don't think we fully appreciate what Delta did to save this industry. In 2008, they were the first ones to do a bankruptcy, to buy a competitor, got to take out Travis' hometown airline. But they re thought, ho
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Alphabet’s cloud growth is currently tethered to an unsustainable AI-capex cycle, masking potential long-term risks of model commoditization and enterprise churn."
The market is conflating Anthropic’s rapid revenue scaling with long-term margin durability. While Alphabet’s 14% stake and cloud infrastructure play effectively hedge their AI exposure, the 'landlord' thesis ignores the risk of model commoditization. If Anthropic’s $30B run rate is driven by venture-subsidized enterprise experimentation rather than sustainable ROI, Google’s cloud revenue could face a cliff if those startups churn. Furthermore, the foldable iPhone rumor is a classic 'feature-chase' that signals Apple’s struggle to find a true hardware paradigm shift. Investors should be wary of paying premium multiples for companies relying on temporary AI-capex spikes rather than genuine productivity-driven enterprise demand.
If Anthropic’s model efficiency continues to outpace Gemini, Google risks becoming a low-margin commodity utility for its own primary competitor, effectively cannibalizing its own search and AI ecosystem.
"Alphabet's equity, cloud lock-in, and TPU economics create a multi-way AI win independent of model supremacy."
Anthropic's revenue run rate surging from $9B to $30B in 90 days signals massive enterprise AI adoption, but Alphabet (GOOGL) captures disproportionate upside via its 14% stake (valued at billions), new TPU supply deal locking Anthropic into Google Cloud, and Broadcom partnership for custom silicon. This diversifies GOOGL beyond Gemini risks, accelerating GCP growth (28% YoY last quarter) as AI workloads scale. TPUs offer cost edge over Nvidia GPUs (lower inference costs), potentially re-rating GOOGL's undervalued cloud segment (12% of revenue) to 15-20x forward sales if adoption spreads. Overlooked: validates AI backfilling any search revenue cannibalization.
Anthropic's Claude dominance in coding/enterprise directly competes with Gemini, subsidizing a rival that could erode Google's model moat and internal AI revenue. Unsustainable tripling ignores unit economics—enterprise budgets cap at low-single-digit % of IT spend, risking a growth cliff.
"Alphabet is winning as a landlord, not as an AI innovator—a profitable but defensive position that doesn't justify re-rating if Gemini remains inferior to Claude."
The article conflates two separate dynamics: Anthropic's staggering 90-day growth (9B to 30B ARR) and Alphabet's strategic positioning. But the panelists buried the real tension: Anthropic's growth may be unsustainable (Lou's $125k/month CEO example is damning), and Google's 14% stake + TPU deal could be a hedge against Gemini's competitive weakness rather than a win. If Claude commoditizes, Alphabet benefits as infrastructure provider—but that's defensive, not offensive. The foldable iPhone discussion reveals Apple's maturity crisis, not innovation. Delta's preannounced earnings suggest the airline industry has stabilized but offers no alpha.
Anthropic's 90-day tripling may reflect pent-up enterprise demand finally materializing at scale, not a bubble. If Claude maintains 60%+ of the AI assistant market share over 18 months, the growth could sustain. Alphabet's TPU strategy could genuinely erode Nvidia's moat faster than consensus expects.
"Alphabet's AI upside depends on durable monetization of Anthropic's demand and scalable cloud margins, not on a short-cycle growth spike."
Alphabet stands to gain from Anthropic's rapid run-rate via Google Cloud compute and TPU integration, potentially widening AI revenue beyond Nvidia hardware. However, the piece glosses over key risks: Anthropic's $30B run-rate in 90 days is likely not durable; cloud AI revenue tends to be volatile and margins will be pressured by compute costs; Alphabet faces customer concentration risk if Anthropic's spend shifts or slows, plus broader regulatory and competitive headwinds as AI economics evolve. Nvidia remains a heavyweight; Google's TPU moat may be narrower than claimed if scaling and profitability don't materialize. The foldable iPhone and Delta chatter are ancillary to Alphabet's core AI/Cloud thesis.
The surge in Anthropic's revenue could be a one-off, driven by large but non-recurring deals. If those deals revert or users push back on cost, Alphabet's AI upside may prove non-durable and margin pressure could widen as cloud spend scales.
"The TPU cost advantage is irrelevant if Google's model architecture remains less efficient than its competitors, turning the company into a low-margin utility."
Grok, your focus on the TPU cost-edge ignores the 'software-defined' reality of AI inference. Hardware efficiency matters little if Anthropic’s model architecture remains more efficient than Gemini’s. If Claude requires fewer tokens or lower latency to achieve parity, the TPU advantage is moot. You’re betting on the plumbing while ignoring the product. If Google’s model moat collapses, they become a lower-margin utility provider, not an AI leader. That’s a fundamental valuation risk you’re glossing over.
"Alphabet's equity stake and TPU lock-in convert Anthropic risks into GCP/GOOGL upside."
Claude and ChatGPT fixate on Anthropic's unit economics without quantifying Alphabet's downside protection: the 14% stake (worth ~$4-5B at 13-15x sales) provides marked-to-market gains even if cloud churns, plus TPU exclusivity hedges Nvidia costs. Gemini's software critique ignores that Claude's edge subsidizes GCP scale—win-win if growth sustains 6 months. Real risk unmentioned: DOJ antitrust blocking deeper integration.
"Google's stake is only valuable if Anthropic stays independent—antitrust or competitive collapse makes it a liability, not a hedge."
Grok's $4-5B stake valuation assumes Anthropic sustains 13-15x sales multiples—but that multiple collapses if growth decelerates below 40% YoY. Gemini correctly flags that Google becomes a utility if Claude's architecture dominates; the TPU deal then locks Google into subsidizing a competitor's moat. The DOJ risk Grok mentions is real, but the bigger issue: Google's 14% stake appreciates only if Anthropic remains independent and valuable. If antitrust forces divestment or integration, that 'downside protection' evaporates.
"Regulatory risk could wipe out Google's TPU-driven upside and downside protection from Anthropic, potentially erasing durable margin gains."
Grok over-weights the TPU moat and the 14% stake as durable upside. The bigger ignored risk is regulatory: antitrust actions could force divestment or restrict Anthropic-Google integration, erasing downside protection and any pricing power from TPU exclusivity. If Anthropic grows with other clouds or remains independent, Google’s cloud+AI economics may fail to translate into durable margin gains. A regulatory reset could compress multiples and expose Google to greater competitive vulnerability than the current scenario implies.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel is divided on Alphabet's position in Anthropic, with concerns about Anthropic's growth sustainability, model commoditization, and regulatory risks outweighing potential benefits from TPU cost advantages and Alphabet's 14% stake.
Alphabet's potential upside from Anthropic's growth via its 14% stake and TPU supply deal
Anthropic's growth unsustainability and potential model commoditization