Why One Analyst Thinks LLY Is Worth $850 While the Rest of Wall Street Targets $1,216

<h3>Quick Read</h3>
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<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Eli Lilly (LLY) faces a downgrade to Reduce from HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar, who cut his price target from $1,070 to $850, citing overestimated obesity drug market size ($80B-$120B by 2032 versus current expectations of $150B+) and accelerating price competition, with Mounjaro and Zepbound generating 60% of Q4 2025 revenue ($11.67B of $19.29B total).</p></li>
<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">HSBC believes GLP-1 pricing pressure will intensify as volume carries revenue growth, with U.S. prices already down high single digits in Q3 2025 despite 62% volume growth, while oral candidate orforglipron launch expectations may be inflated.</p></li>
<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">A recent study identified one single habit that doubled Americans’ retirement savings and moved retirement from dream, to reality.</p><a href="https://247wallst.com/lp/the-simple-habit-that-can-double-americans-retirement-savings-and-why-you-should-start-today/?i=776c77c2-e782-4aaa-b61e-f8e4b1e9a37a&amp;p=ebadc3d1-a33c-4a9b-912c-8b2543ac0c0b&amp;pos=keypoints&amp;tpid=1568163&amp;utm_source=yahoo&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_campaign=feed&amp;utm_content=feed||1568163">Read more here</a>.</li>
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<p>Eli Lilly (<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LLY/">NYSE:LLY</a>) shares have pulled back sharply, falling  9% over the past month, and 13% year-to-date. Most Wall Street analysts remain constructive, with a consensus price target of $1,216.93 and 24 buy-equivalent ratings versus just 1 strong sell. Now, HSBC analyst Rajesh Kumar is stepping against that tide, downgrading LLY to Reduce with a price target of $850, a significant discount to where shares currently trade. But can LLY realistically reach $850 by end of 2026?</p>
<h2>HSBC's $850 LLY Prediction</h2>
<p>Kumar cut his target from $1,070 to $850, arguing that the obesity drug market's total addressable market is being overstated by investors. HSBC believes the obesity market will reach $80 billion to $120 billion by 2032, well below the $150 billion-plus figure embedded in current expectations. The firm also warns that price competition in the GLP-1 space is likely to be significant, and that Lilly's 2026 obesity price cuts represent a meaningful headwind even as management's guidance implies continued high-volume growth.</p>
<p>Read: <a href="https://247wallst.com/lp/the-simple-habit-that-can-double-americans-retirement-savings-and-why-you-should-start-today/?i=776c77c2-e782-4aaa-b61e-f8e4b1e9a37a&amp;p=d474a5a7-790a-4f9f-bfcb-02fc45c14ad3&amp;pos=mid_content&amp;tpid=1568163">Data Shows One Habit Doubles American’s Savings And Boosts Retirement</a></p>
<p>Most Americans drastically underestimate how much they need to retire and overestimate how prepared they are. But data shows that <a href="https://247wallst.com/lp/the-simple-habit-that-can-double-americans-retirement-savings-and-why-you-should-start-today/?i=776c77c2-e782-4aaa-b61e-f8e4b1e9a37a&amp;p=d474a5a7-790a-4f9f-bfcb-02fc45c14ad3&amp;pos=mid_content&amp;tpid=1568163">people with one habit</a> have more than double the savings of those who don’t.</p>
<h2>Key Drivers Behind the Downgrade</h2>
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<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Oral GLP-1 Expectations May Be Too High: HSBC believes launch expectations for Lilly's oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron, are elevated, and that compliance and persistence with oral anti-obesity medications could disappoint. While an oral pill could expand access, converting that into durable revenue is a different challenge.</p></li>
<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Pricing Pressure Is Accelerating: Lilly's own filings confirm volume is carrying the revenue load while prices fall. U.S. prices declined by high single digits in Q3 2025, with 10% lower realized prices partially offsetting a 62% volume increase. That dynamic is unlikely to reverse.</p></li>
<li> <p class="yf-1fy9kyt">Concentration Risk in Two Products: Mounjaro and Zepbound together generated $11.67 billion of Lilly's $19.29 billion in Q4 2025 revenue, representing over 60% of the quarter's total. Any demand softness or pricing concession in either drug flows directly to the bottom line.</p></li>
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