By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on Nvidia, with key concerns being unsustainable gross margins, intense competition from hyperscalers and AMD, regulatory risks, and potential slowdown in AI demand.
Risk: Intensifying competition and unsustainable gross margins
Opportunity: Maintaining supply-chain dominance and leveraging CUDA software ecosystem
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Investors hoping for an artificial intelligence (AI) win have flocked to Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) in recent years, and it's proven to be a winning bet. The stock has climbed 1,000% over five years. The reason for such a move? Nvidia designs a product that's unavoidable for those running AI workloads: the AI chip. But this isn't just any AI chip. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the fastest around, and customers have rushed to gain access to them.
All of this has spurred tremendous growth for Nvidia. The company's revenue and net income have surged to record levels, finishing last year at $215 billion and $120 billion, respectively.
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But this year hasn't been a year of extraordinary stock market performance for Nvidia so far. AI stocks came under pressure in the first half amid concerns about the economy and turmoil in Iran. And some investors worried about mounting competition in the AI chip market -- even some of Nvidia's own customers, such as Amazon, are making some of their own AI chips. Though Nvidia's earnings reports have been strong, this hasn't been enough to supercharge the stock.
So, now, with a potential catalyst ahead on June 24, it's fair to ask: Will Nvidia stock soar after that date? The evidence is piling up, and here's what it shows.
First, let's talk a bit about Nvidia's recent performance. As mentioned, the company continues to deliver strong growth as AI customers turn to its products and services. In the latest quarter, revenue climbed 85% to $81 billion, and gross margin of more than 74% showed solid profitability on sales.
Importantly, Nvidia offered us a glimpse of what's ahead. The company has set its sights on the central processing unit (CPU) market, one that's worth about $200 billion. Nvidia generally hasn't been a big player here, but for the first time ever, it's set to launch a stand-alone CPU as part of its Vera Rubin launch this fall. And at the same time, it's tackling the personal computer, with the upcoming release of a superchip that includes a GPU and CPU. These launches could be a big move for Nvidia, further broadening its revenue opportunities.
In spite of all of this good news, Nvidia stock hasn't soared this year -- at least not as it's done in the past. As mentioned, though, this has primarily been due to external factors rather than worries about Nvidia's future. It's true that Nvidia may face some competitive pressure -- even from some of its customers -- but it's unlikely that this will significantly impact the company's sales. AI customers may turn to a variety of chip designers, but the speed of Nvidia's chips means they're usually a major part of this mix. And this is likely to continue.
Now, let's turn to the potential catalyst on June 24. And that's Nvidia's annual meeting of shareholders. The company generally doesn't announce major news during the event, but it's possible that chief Jensen Huang will say a few words about Nvidia's progress and the AI opportunity ahead.
Could this be enough to lift the stock? Over the past two years, Nvidia stock hasn't made a big move in the week following the meeting. In 2025 and 2024, it rose less than 2% each time. Still, those were positive moves. It's also important to note that, right now, the general market and geopolitical environment may be improving -- this, as well as the excitement about tech IPOs, from Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) to Cerebras Systems, could buoy Nvidia and other AI players.
All of this means that the evidence is piling up, and it suggests Nvidia could climb after June 24 -- but I wouldn't attribute this to the shareholders' meeting alone. Instead, a more favorable general environment could boost the stock.
Still, it's important to keep in mind that even if Nvidia doesn't climb after June 24, shareholders shouldn't worry: Short-term movements are unlikely to impact your returns over time.
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Adria Cimino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Nvidia's rally faces meaningful downside risk if AI demand softens, competitors gain ground, or regulatory constraints curb growth, leading to a likely re-rating from current levels."
While Nvidia remains the dominant AI accelerator, the article treats June 24 as a likely short-term catalyst and glosses over the downside risks embedded in a very rich valuation and a potentially peaking AI demand cycle. The piece understates regulatory and competitive headwinds (export controls to China, rising competition from hyperscalers building in-house accelerators, and AMD/Chinese rivals), as well as the margin and execution risks from expanding into CPUs and integrated systems. If AI spend slows or if new product bets underperform, the stock could face multiple compression despite ongoing data-center strength. The absence of a sober look at macro, supply-chain, or regulatory risk makes the bullish thesis incomplete.
The strongest counter is that AI capex remains robust, Nvidia still benefits from ecosystem lock-in and ongoing data-center refresh cycles, and June 24 could deliver incremental optimism that the market already discounts. If the narrative shifts even modestly, the stock could re-rate higher despite the risks.
"Nvidia's valuation is currently predicated on maintaining anomalous 70%+ gross margins, which will inevitably face downward pressure as hyperscalers scale their internal chip production."
The article's focus on a post-June 24 'catalyst' is speculative noise; shareholder meetings rarely move a mega-cap like NVDA unless there is a surprise guidance revision. The real story is the transition from GPU-monopoly to a broader compute-stack provider via the Vera Rubin architecture. At a forward P/E of roughly 35-40x, the market is pricing in sustained 30%+ growth. While the article highlights revenue growth, it glosses over the sustainability of a 74% gross margin. As hyperscalers like Amazon and Google develop custom silicon, NVDA's pricing power will face its first real test. Investors should watch for margin compression as the competitive moat narrows.
The 'moat' may be deeper than hardware; NVDA's CUDA software ecosystem creates high switching costs that custom silicon from hyperscalers cannot easily replicate, justifying premium margins for years.
"The article confuses a favorable macro backdrop with a company-specific catalyst, and avoids the valuation question entirely — a red flag for promotional content."
This article is promotional noise masquerading as analysis. The 'catalyst' on June 24 is a shareholder meeting where Nvidia 'generally doesn't announce major news' — the author admits the stock rose <2% post-meeting in 2024-2025. The real argument is that macro conditions may improve, which has nothing to do with Nvidia specifically. Meanwhile, the article glosses over genuine risks: gross margins at 74% are unsustainably high if competition (AMD, custom chips from TSMC customers) intensifies; the $200B CPU market entry is unproven; and the article provides zero valuation context. At what P/E does NVDA trade? Unknown from this piece. The historical returns cited (Netflix, old Nvidia) are survivorship bias dressed as evidence.
If Nvidia's GPU moat is as durable as claimed, the stock should already price that in — the real question is whether 74% gross margins compress to 60-65% within 18 months as competition scales, which would crater valuations regardless of June 24 sentiment.
"Nvidia's post-June 24 move depends on macro sentiment rather than the shareholder meeting, while rising custom-chip competition poses an under-appreciated margin threat."
The article correctly notes minimal historical reaction to Nvidia's shareholder meeting but underplays how custom ASIC development by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft is already eroding high-margin inference workloads. With NVDA trading at elevated multiples after 85% revenue growth to $81B, any sequential slowdown in data-center orders would trigger re-rating pressure. June 24 commentary from Jensen Huang is unlikely to move the stock; macro relief and AI-IPO sentiment are the real variables. Export restrictions and potential China demand weakness also remain live risks the piece largely ignores.
A broad risk-on rotation into tech names could still produce a short-term bounce even without company-specific news, overriding the competitive concerns.
"NVIDIA's real moat is software-ecosystem and policy/regulatory risk, not just hardware margins, so macro shocks can squeeze multiples even if GPU margins stay resilient."
One flaw in Grok: you treat 'custom ASIC erosion' as near-certain, but Nvidia's edge isn't just hardware; CUDA, software tooling, and ecosystem lock-in create a quasi-transactional moat that is harder to replicate. Even with hyperscalers pursuing bespoke chips, Nvidia can monetize via software, libraries, and services that stay sticky. The bigger unknown is policy/regulatory risk and demand durability; the article undersells how quickly a macro hit could compress multiples even if hardware margins hold.
"Nvidia's primary moat is physical supply-chain dominance via TSMC capacity, which acts as a harder barrier than software-based switching costs."
Claude is right that the shareholder meeting is noise, but both Claude and Gemini ignore the supply-side bottleneck: TSMC CoWoS capacity. Nvidia’s 'moat' isn't just CUDA; it’s their priority access to advanced packaging. Even if margins compress to 65%, Nvidia’s ability to command supply over competitors like AMD creates a physical barrier to entry that software-only arguments miss. The valuation risk isn't just competition—it's whether they can maintain this supply-chain dominance as volumes scale further.
"TSMC CoWoS priority is a tactical advantage, not a structural moat—and it's fragile if capacity or competition shifts."
Gemini's TSMC CoWoS bottleneck is the most underrated variable here. But it cuts both ways: yes, it's a moat today, but it's also a single point of failure. If TSMC capacity constraints ease or if competitors secure alternate packaging (Samsung, Intel foundry), that 'physical barrier' evaporates fast. The article ignores this entirely. Supply dominance is temporary; it's not a durable moat like CUDA. That's the real valuation risk.
"Easing CoWoS constraints would amplify AMD and China competitive threats amid existing ASIC erosion."
Claude correctly flags the dual nature of TSMC dependency, yet this also heightens exposure to export controls on advanced packaging tech to China. If CoWoS access broadens for rivals, Nvidia's ability to outpace AMD and domestic Chinese chips in inference workloads weakens precisely when hyperscaler ASICs are already targeting high-margin segments. This supply dynamic could accelerate the re-rating pressure I noted earlier, independent of June 24.
The panel consensus is bearish on Nvidia, with key concerns being unsustainable gross margins, intense competition from hyperscalers and AMD, regulatory risks, and potential slowdown in AI demand.
Maintaining supply-chain dominance and leveraging CUDA software ecosystem
Intensifying competition and unsustainable gross margins