XRP Price Analysis: XRP Open Interest Just Hit the Same Level That Triggered a 103% Rally in 2025

<p>XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has lost $457 million in leveraged futures positions over the past five months. Its open interest (OI) dropped 70%, from $660 million in October 2025 to $203 million by early March 2026, while the XRP price slid from $2.90 to $1.40 in the same period.</p>
<p>The last time XRP's open interest fell to these levels was April 2025, when the price was sitting around $1.80. What followed was a rally to $3.65 by July, marking a 103% gain in three months. With the Open Interest dropping so right now, is the setup for another rally forming again?</p>
<p>Why Did XRP Open Interest Drop 70%?</p>
<p>Open interest tracks the total number of active futures contracts that haven't been settled yet. When it drops alongside the price, it means existing positions are being closed out or liquidated. On October 6, 2025, total XRP open interest stood at $660 million with the XRP price between $2.40 and $2.60, and by March 3, it had collapsed to $203 million.</p>
<p>Binance, the largest venue for XRP futures, saw its OI drop below $270 million for the first time since April 2025. Other exchanges recorded OI declines as well: Bitfinex fell to $4.3 million in open contracts, and BitMEX dropped to $3 million. For XRP holders, this is actually a positive development. When the futures market is loaded with leveraged positions, any price drop triggers a chain reaction where traders get forced out, which pushes the price down further, which forces more traders out. That's what drove XRP's slide from $2.90 to $1.40 over five months.</p>
<p>With those positions now cleared, the next time buyers step in, the XRP price can actually move up without a wave of forced selling pulling it back down. On top of that, XRP's daily price swings have been getting wider over the past 30 days even as the futures market has gone quiet, and that combination has historically shown up right before a breakout.</p>
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<p>What Happened the Last Time XRP Open Interest Was This Low?</p>
<p>In April 2025, Binance's XRP open interest bottomed around $270 million while the XRP price sat near $1.80. Current OI is even lower, at roughly $203 million, meaning the futures market today is lighter than it was back then. From that April low, XRP rallied to its 2025 high of $3.65 by July 18, a 103% gain in about three months.</p>
<p>The rally had specific catalysts behind it. The SEC and Ripple were moving toward their settlement, which was finalized on August 8, and the broader crypto market was picking up momentum at the same time. The leverage had already been flushed, so when buyers came back in, there was nothing standing in the way and the XRP price moved quickly.</p>
<p>The current setup has catalysts that could play a similar role. The Federal Reserve has a rate decision on March 18, the CLARITY Act is working its way through Congress, and Mastercard just launched a crypto payments program on March 11 with Ripple listed as a partner. None of those are guaranteed to move the XRP price on their own, but if any of them come through while the futures market is still this light, it would look a lot like what happened in April 2025.</p>
<p>Where Does the XRP Price Go From Here?</p>
<p>If buyers step back in while the futures market is still this light, the first level to watch is $1.50. A daily close above that with real volume behind it would confirm that demand is returning, and from there, on-chain data shows limited resistance until the $1.76 to $1.80 range, where roughly 1.85 billion XRP was accumulated by holders who may sell to break even. Bitcoin also matters here—XRP's correlation with BTC is above 0.85 right now, so a Bitcoin push back above $75,000 to $80,000 would likely pull the XRP price higher with it.</p>
<p>On the downside, macro risks like the Iran conflict escalating or the Fed holding rates higher for longer under Kevin Warsh could still push the XRP price lower. The difference now is that the leveraged positions that caused those violent crashes on the way down from $2.90 are gone, so any further decline would be more gradual. Below $1.27, the current setup loses its strength entirely and $1.10 becomes the next level to watch.</p>
<p>The 70% drop in XRP open interest hasn't guaranteed a rally—but it has removed the biggest source of forced selling that was dragging the price down for months. What happens next depends on whether real buying demand shows up before the futures market starts loading up with leverage again.</p>
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