CME CME Group Inc. - Class A Common Stock

NASDAQ · Financial Services · Ver en SEC EDGAR ↗
$300,05
Precio · May 20, 2026
Fundamentales a fecha de Abr 24, 2026
Rango 52S
$257–$328
61% of range
Calificación del Analista
BUY
21 analysts
Precio Objetivo
$307
+2% upside
P/E (TTM)
24.5
ROE
14.8%
Margen de Beneficio Neto
62.5%

CME Instantánea de la Acción Precio, capitalización bursátil, P/E, BPA, ROE, deuda/capital, rango de 52 semanas

Precio
$300.05
Capitalización Bursátil
—
P/E (TTM)
24.5
BPA (TTM)
$11.16
Ingresos (TTM)
$6.52B
Rendimiento div.
—
ROE
14.8%
Deuda/Capital
0.0
Rango 52S
$257 – $328

CME Gráfico del Precio de la Acción OHLCV diario con indicadores técnicos — desplace, amplíe y personalice su vista

Rendimiento a 10 años Tendencias de ingresos, beneficio neto, márgenes y BPA

Ingresos y Beneficio Neto $6.52B
10-point trend, +81.4%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
BPA $11.16
10-point trend, +146.4%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
Flujo de caja libre $4.19B
10-point trend, +158.2%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
Márgenes 62.5%

Valoración Ratios P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA: ¿está la acción cara o barata?

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
P/E (TTM)
5-point trend, -21.9%
24.5
30.8

Rentabilidad Márgenes brutos, operativos y netos; ROE, ROA, ROIC

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
Operating Margin (Margen Operativo)
5-point trend, +15.0%
64.9%
—
Net Profit Margin (Margen de Beneficio Neto)
5-point trend, +11.1%
62.5%
27.7%
ROA
5-point trend, +47.6%
2.4%
7.8%
ROE
5-point trend, +53.0%
14.8%
13.9%
ROIC
5-point trend, +53.1%
11.2%
—

Salud financiera Deuda, liquidez, solvencia — solidez del balance general

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
Debt / Equity (Deuda / Patrimonio)
5-point trend, -100.0%
0.0
34.1
Current Ratio (Ratio corriente)
5-point trend, +2.3%
1.0
1.0
Quick Ratio (Ratio Rápido)
5-point trend, +53.1%
0.0
—

Crecimiento Crecimiento de ingresos, BPA y beneficio neto: interanual, CAGR a 3 años, CAGR a 5 años

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
Revenue YoY (Ingresos interanuales)
5-point trend, +39.0%
6.4%
—
Revenue CAGR 3Y (Ingresos CAGR 3A)
5-point trend, +39.0%
9.1%
—
Revenue CAGR 5Y (Ingresos CAGR 5A)
5-point trend, +39.0%
5.9%
—
EPS YoY (EPS interanual)
5-point trend, +53.1%
15.4%
—
Net Income YoY (Beneficio Neto interanual)
5-point trend, +54.4%
15.5%
—

Métricas por acción BPA, valor contable por acción, flujo de caja por acción, dividendo por acción

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
EPS (Diluted) (BPA (Diluido))
5-point trend, +53.1%
$11.16
—

Eficiencia de capital Rotación de activos, rotación de inventario, rotación de cuentas por cobrar

Métrica
Tendencia a 5 años
CME
Mediana de Pares
Payout Ratio (Ratio de Pago)
5-point trend, +16.3%
96.6%
—

Dividendos Rendimiento, ratio de pago, historial de dividendos, CAGR a 5 años

Rendimiento por Dividendo
—
Ratio de Pago
96.6%
CAGR de Dividendos a 5 años
—
Fecha ex-dividendoMonto
10 de marzo de 2026$7,4500
12 de diciembre de 2025$1,2500
9 de septiembre de 2025$1,2500
9 de junio de 2025$1,2500
7 de marzo de 2025$1,2500
27 de diciembre de 2024$5,8000
9 de diciembre de 2024$1,1500
9 de septiembre de 2024$1,1500
7 de junio de 2024$1,1500
7 de marzo de 2024$1,1500
27 de diciembre de 2023$5,2500
7 de diciembre de 2023$1,1000
7 de septiembre de 2023$1,1000
8 de junio de 2023$1,1000
9 de marzo de 2023$1,1000
27 de diciembre de 2022$4,5000
8 de diciembre de 2022$1,0000
8 de septiembre de 2022$1,0000
9 de junio de 2022$1,0000
9 de marzo de 2022$1,0000

CME Consenso de analistas Opiniones de analistas alcistas y bajistas, precio objetivo a 12 meses, potencial alcista

MANTENER 21 analistas
  • Compra fuerte 2 9,5%
  • Compra 8 38,1%
  • Mantener 8 38,1%
  • Venta 3 14,3%
  • Venta fuerte 0 0,0%

Precio objetivo a 12 meses

15 analistas · 2026-05-16
Objetivo mediano $316.00 +5,3%
Objetivo medio $306.60 +2,2%

Historial de Ganancias EPS real vs estimado, sorpresa %, tasa de aciertos, próxima fecha de resultados

Sorpresa Media
-0.01%
Período EPS Actual EPS est. Sorpresa
31 de marzo de 2026 $3.36 $3.40 -0.04%
31 de diciembre de 2025 $2.77 $2.77 -0.00%
30 de septiembre de 2025 $2.68 $2.66 0.02%
30 de junio de 2025 $2.96 $2.95 0.01%
31 de marzo de 2025 $2.80 $2.84 -0.04%

Comparación con pares Métricas clave frente a competidores del sector

Ticker Capitalización Bursátil P/E Ingresos interanuales Margen Neto ROE Margen Bruto
CME — 24.5 6.4% 62.5% 14.8% —
SPGI $156.15B 35.6 7.9% 29.1% 13.9% —
ICE $91.83B 28.1 7.5% 26.2% 11.7% —
MCO — 37.4 8.9% 31.9% 64.5% —
NDAQ $55.35B 31.4 11.7% 21.6% 15.3% 63.5%
COIN $60.57B 50.8 9.4% 17.5% 9.4% —
MSCI $42.21B 36.6 9.8% 38.4% -67.9% —
TW $25.32B 28.4 18.9% 39.6% 13.2% —
FDS $14.05B 24.0 5.4% 25.7% 28.1% —

Fundamentales Completos Todas las métricas por año — estado de resultados, balance general, flujo de caja

Estado de resultados 12
Datos anuales de Estado de resultados para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue 12-point trend, +109.5% $6.52B $6.13B $5.58B $5.02B $4.69B $4.88B $4.87B $4.31B $3.64B $3.60B $3.33B $3.11B
Operating Expenses 12-point trend, +70.5% $2.29B $2.20B $2.14B $2.00B $2.04B $2.25B $2.28B $1.70B $1.33B $1.39B $1.34B $1.34B
Operating Income 12-point trend, +139.2% $4.23B $3.93B $3.44B $3.02B $2.65B $2.64B $2.59B $2.61B $2.31B $2.20B $1.99B $1.77B
Other Non-op 12-point trend, -268644.4% $-4.83B $-3.66B $-4.69B $-1.86B $343M $-122M $-535M $-570M $-328M $-41M $-43M $2M
Pretax Income 12-point trend, +200.9% $5.33B $4.54B $4.15B $3.49B $3.37B $2.72B $2.69B $2.78B $2.53B $2.29B $1.96B $1.77B
Income Tax 12-point trend, +95.2% $1.26B $1.02B $927M $799M $737M $616M $574M $814M $-1.54B $754M $710M $644M
Net Income 12-point trend, +261.3% $4.07B $3.53B $3.23B $2.69B $2.64B $2.11B $2.12B $1.96B $4.06B $1.53B $1.25B $1.13B
EPS (Basic) 12-point trend, +231.8% $11.18 $9.69 $8.87 $7.41 $7.30 $5.88 $5.93 $5.73 $12.00 $4.55 $3.71 $3.37
EPS (Diluted) 12-point trend, +233.1% $11.16 $9.67 $8.86 $7.40 $7.29 $5.87 $5.91 $5.71 $11.94 $4.53 $3.69 $3.35
Shares (Basic) 12-point trend, +7.5% 359,648,000 359,389,000 359,023,000 358,713,000 358,340,000 357,764,000 357,155,000 342,344,000 338,707,000 337,496,000 336,224,000 334,409,000
Shares (Diluted) 12-point trend, +7.2% 360,310,000 359,944,000 359,500,000 359,181,000 358,929,000 358,524,000 358,239,000 343,737,000 340,226,000 338,966,000 337,894,000 336,063,000
EBITDA 12-point trend, +139.2% $4.23B $3.93B $3.44B $3.02B $2.65B $2.64B $2.59B $2.61B $2.31B $2.20B $1.99B $1.77B
Balance general 24
Datos anuales de Balance general para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Cash & Equivalents 12-point trend, +223.3% $4.42B $2.89B $2.91B $2.72B $2.83B $1.63B $1.55B $1.37B $1.90B $1.87B $1.69B $1.37B
Short-term Investments 12-point trend, +67.3% $125M $113M $112M $96M $115M $101M $83M $73M $90M $83M $72M $75M
Receivables 12-point trend, +87.3% $639M $573M $536M $483M $434M $461M $492M $553M $360M $364M $358M $341M
Other Current Assets 12-point trend, +165.7% $522M $559M $1.14B $530M $428M $307M $364M $430M $368M $172M $229M $196M
Current Assets 12-point trend, +288.7% $165.36B $103.03B $94.89B $139.08B $161.76B $89.28B $39.57B $41.89B $46.91B $40.03B $37.90B $42.55B
PP&E (Net) 12-point trend, -28.7% $363M $386M $410M $456M $505M $579M $544M $449M $400M $425M $492M $509M
PP&E (Gross) 12-point trend, +9.5% $1.37B $1.41B $1.34B $1.60B $1.54B $1.54B $1.41B $1.21B $1.08B $1.02B $1.28B $1.25B
Accum. Depreciation 12-point trend, +35.7% $1.01B $1.02B $933M $1.15B $1.04B $961M $868M $761M $677M $597M $789M $741M
Goodwill 12-point trend, +38.9% $10.51B $10.49B $10.50B $10.48B $10.53B $10.80B $10.74B $10.81B $7.57B $7.57B $7.57B $7.57B
Intangibles 12-point trend, -1.0% $2.61B $2.82B $3.05B $3.27B $3.53B $4.87B $5.12B $5.50B $2.35B $2.44B $2.54B $2.64B
Other Non-current Assets 12-point trend, +33.0% $2.40B $3.54B $3.69B $3.71B $3.28B $1.96B $2.07B $1.66B $1.39B $1.73B $1.68B $1.81B
Total Assets 12-point trend, +174.7% $198.42B $137.45B $129.71B $174.18B $196.78B $124.66B $75.22B $77.48B $75.79B $69.37B $67.36B $72.24B
Accounts Payable 12-point trend, +94.6% $72M $80M $91M $121M $49M $69M $62M $116M $31M $26M $29M $37M
Short-term Debt 9-point trend, +0.00 $0 $750M $0 $16M $749M $0 $0 $574M $0 · · ·
Current Liabilities 12-point trend, +286.0% $160.30B $102.31B $93.42B $137.69B $160.40B $88.20B $38.52B $41.27B $45.67B $38.95B $36.82B $41.53B
Capital Leases 7-point trend, -53.9% $237M $289M $344M $384M $449M $492M $515M · · · · ·
Deferred Tax 12-point trend, -28.2% $5.24B $5.25B $5.33B $5.36B $5.39B $5.61B $5.64B $5.67B $4.86B $7.29B $7.36B $7.30B
Other Non-current Liabilities 12-point trend, +95.3% $735M $721M $798M $826M $896M $1.06B $1.16B $745M $616M $561M $396M $376M
Total Liabilities 12-point trend, +230.7% $169.70B $110.96B $102.97B $147.30B $169.38B $98.31B $49.06B $51.51B $53.38B $49.03B $46.81B $51.32B
Total Debt 7-point trend, -100.0% $0 $750M $0 $16M $749M · $0 $574M · · · ·
Retained Earnings 12-point trend, +93.9% $6.43B $4.19B $4.46B $4.75B $5.15B $5.00B $5.01B $4.86B $4.50B $2.52B $2.91B $3.32B
AOCI 12-point trend, +1221.0% $82M $-106M $-56M $-133M $54M $135M $3M $5M $14M $-14M $-81M $6M
Stockholders' Equity 12-point trend, +37.3% $28.73B $26.49B $26.74B $26.88B $27.40B $26.35B $26.16B $25.97B $22.41B $20.34B $20.55B $20.92B
Liabilities + Equity 12-point trend, +174.7% $198.42B $137.45B $129.71B $174.18B $196.78B $124.66B $75.22B $77.48B $75.79B $69.37B $67.36B $72.24B
Flujo de Efectivo 13
Datos anuales de Flujo de Efectivo para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
D&A 12-point trend, -18.9% $108M $115M $126M $135M $148M $153M $159M $119M $113M $129M $129M $133M
Stock-based Comp 12-point trend, +73.0% $95M $90M $83M $84M $75M $96M $73M $96M $58M $66M $61M $55M
Deferred Tax 12-point trend, -107.7% $-6M $-66M $-75M $-23M $35M $-42M $-4M $114M $-2.45B $-83M $63M $79M
Amort. of Intangibles 12-point trend, +122.1% $223M $222M $227M $228M $238M $311M $315M $130M $96M $96M $99M $101M
Operating Cash Flow 12-point trend, +231.2% $4.28B $3.69B $3.45B $3.06B $2.40B $2.72B $2.67B $2.44B $1.75B $1.73B $1.53B $1.29B
CapEx 12-point trend, -40.7% $84M $94M $76M $90M $127M $198M $246M $117M $82M $92M $114M $141M
Investing Cash Flow 12-point trend, +852.8% $1.50B $-83M $21M $-490M $58M $-176M $-153M $-1.89B $180M $54M $18M $-199M
Debt Issued 7-point trend, +0.00 · · · · · $0 $0 $1.19B $0 $0 $744M $0
Net Debt Issued 7-point trend, +0.00 · · · · · $0 $0 $1.19B $0 $0 $744M $0
Dividends Paid 12-point trend, +162.8% $3.93B $3.58B $3.24B $2.63B $2.19B $2.11B $1.70B $2.15B $1.99B $1.79B $1.34B $1.50B
Financing Cash Flow 12-point trend, +2673.4% $56.51B $5.08B $-48.34B $-25.38B $69.91B $47.25B $-2.34B $-1.08B $-1.99B $-1.62B $-1.22B $-2.20B
Net Change in Cash 12-point trend, +5743.8% $62.29B $8.68B $-44.86B $-22.82B $72.37B $49.79B $-2.20B $-529M $-54M $165M $326M $-1.10B
Free Cash Flow 12-point trend, +264.4% $4.19B $3.60B $3.38B $2.97B $2.28B $2.52B $2.43B $2.32B $1.76B $1.62B $1.40B $1.15B
Rentabilidad 7
Datos anuales de Rentabilidad para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Operating Margin 12-point trend, +14.1% 64.9% 64.1% 61.6% 60.1% 56.4% 54.0% 53.2% 60.5% 63.4% 61.3% 59.8% 56.8%
Net Margin 12-point trend, +72.5% 62.5% 57.5% 57.8% 53.6% 56.2% 43.1% 43.5% 45.5% 111.5% 42.7% 37.5% 36.2%
Pretax Margin 12-point trend, +43.6% 81.8% 74.1% 74.5% 69.5% 71.9% 55.7% 55.2% 64.5% 69.3% 63.6% 58.8% 56.9%
EBITDA Margin 12-point trend, +14.1% 64.9% 64.1% 61.6% 60.1% 56.4% 54.0% 53.2% 60.5% 63.4% 61.3% 59.8% 56.8%
ROA 12-point trend, +36.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8%
ROE 12-point trend, +175.2% 14.8% 13.2% 12.0% 9.9% 9.6% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 18.8% 7.4% 5.9% 5.4%
ROIC 12-point trend, +109.1% 11.2% 11.2% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 7.8% 7.8% 7.0% 16.6% 7.3% 6.2% 5.4%
Liquidez y Solvencia 3
Datos anuales de Liquidez y Solvencia para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Current Ratio 12-point trend, +0.7% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Quick Ratio 12-point trend, -24.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Debt / Equity 7-point trend, -100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 · 0.0 0.0 · · · ·
Eficiencia 2
Datos anuales de Eficiencia para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Asset Turnover 12-point trend, -21.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Receivables Turnover 12-point trend, +11.3% 10.8 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.3 9.4 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.7
Por Acción 4
Datos anuales de Por Acción para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue / Share 12-point trend, +95.4% $18.10 $17.03 $15.52 $13.97 $13.07 $13.62 $13.59 $12.54 $10.71 $10.61 $9.85 $9.26
Cash Flow / Share 12-point trend, +208.9% $11.87 $10.25 $9.61 $8.51 $6.69 $7.57 $7.46 $7.10 $5.41 $5.06 $4.48 $3.84
Dividend / Share 12-point trend, +13.6% $5 $10 $10 $8 $6 $6 $6 $5 $6 $6 $5 $4
EPS (TTM) 12-point trend, +233.1% $11.16 $9.67 $8.86 $7.40 $7.29 $5.87 $5.91 $5.71 $11.94 $4.53 $3.69 $3.35
Tasas de Crecimiento 10
Datos anuales de Tasas de Crecimiento para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue YoY 5-point trend, +260.5% 6.4% 9.9% 11.2% 7.0% -4.0% · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, +100.7% 9.1% 9.3% 4.5% · · · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 5Y 5.9% · · · · · · · · · · ·
EPS YoY 5-point trend, -36.3% 15.4% 9.1% 19.7% 1.5% 24.2% · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -0.2% 14.7% 9.9% 14.7% · · · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 5Y 13.7% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income YoY 5-point trend, -38.5% 15.5% 9.3% 19.9% 2.1% 25.2% · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -3.1% 14.8% 10.2% 15.3% · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 5Y 14.1% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Dividend CAGR 5Y 13.3% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Valoración (TTM) 6
Datos anuales de Valoración (TTM) para CME
Métrica Tendencia 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue TTM 12-point trend, +109.5% $6.52B $6.13B $5.58B $5.02B $4.69B $4.88B $4.87B $4.31B $3.64B $3.60B $3.33B $3.11B
Net Income TTM 12-point trend, +261.3% $4.07B $3.53B $3.23B $2.69B $2.64B $2.11B $2.12B $1.96B $4.06B $1.53B $1.25B $1.13B
P/E 12-point trend, -7.5% 24.5 24.0 23.8 22.7 31.3 31.0 34.0 32.9 12.2 25.5 24.6 26.5
Earnings Yield 12-point trend, +8.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0% 8.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8%
Payout Ratio 12-point trend, -27.3% 96.6% 101.7% 100.3% 97.9% 83.0% 100.2% 80.1% 109.6% 49.1% 116.5% 107.7% 132.8%
Annual Payout 12-point trend, +162.8% $3.93B $3.58B $3.24B $2.63B $2.19B $2.11B $1.70B $2.15B $1.99B $1.79B $1.34B $1.50B

Estados Financieros Estado de resultados, balance general, flujo de caja — anual, últimos 5 años

Estado de resultados
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Ingresos $6.52B$6.13B$5.58B$5.02B$4.69B
Margen Operativo % 64.9%64.1%61.6%60.1%56.4%
Beneficio neto $4.07B$3.53B$3.23B$2.69B$2.64B
EPS Diluido $11.16$9.67$8.86$7.40$7.29
Balance general
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Deuda / Patrimonio 0.00.00.00.00.0
Ratio corriente 1.01.01.01.01.0
Ratio Rápido 0.00.00.00.00.0
Flujo de Efectivo
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Flujo de caja libre $4.19B$3.60B$3.38B$2.97B$2.28B

CME Panel de Analistas IA — Vistas alcistas y bajistas Debate de 2026Q2: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT sobre las perspectivas de la acción

Ronda 1 — Primeras Opiniones

Grok NEUTRAL 0,75
↑ Alcista

CME Group dominates derivatives trading with razor-thin costs, poised to surf any 2026 volatility wave from crypto or commodities. Its 95.97% gross margin means every additional trade volume falls nearly straight to profits, a moat few exchanges match. Launching Avalanche and Sui futures on May 4 (April 9 news) expands its crypto lineup, chasing volumes as Bitcoin stabilizes post-19% drop. Net margin holds at 33.33%, proving resilience even in flat quarters.

↓ Bajista

CME's stalled growth engine risks underperforming if trading volumes normalize post-volatility. ROE at 13.76% trails peers like MCO's 62.81%, showing weaker returns on capital amid flat EPS of $10.45. Debt/equity at 12.14 amplifies risks in a slowdown, with current ratio barely at 1.02 signaling tight liquidity. P/E of 26.16 aligns with peers but buys no momentum.

Claude NEUTRAL 0,68
↑ Alcista

CME is a cash machine in a structurally growing market — futures and options volumes are climbing as institutional hedging demand stays elevated. The 33.33% net margin tells you almost every dollar of revenue drops to the bottom line, which is rare for financial infrastructure. At 26.16 times trailing earnings, the stock trades in line with peers like ICE (27.5x) and below rating agencies like SPGI (29.2x), so the valuation isn't stretched. The crypto futures expansion — Avalanche and Sui launching May 4 — signals management is capturing new asset classes before competitors do, a genuine growth vector.

↓ Bajista

CME's 13.76% ROE is structurally weak for a company with a 12.14 debt-to-equity ratio that high. That leverage isn't generating outsized returns; it's just amplifying ordinary profitability, which raises refinancing risk if rates stay sticky. The stock has drifted sideways for six months — closing at $275 now versus $280 in early May — despite a strong macro backdrop, suggesting the market is pricing in maturity, not growth. The 95.97% gross margin masks a business that's essentially flat-lined: EPS, revenue multiples, and market cap have all stalled for two quarters. Without a catalyst beyond crypto futures, this looks like a mature utility trading on momentum.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0,70
↑ Alcista

CME Group remains a dominant infrastructure play that benefits from market volatility regardless of the asset class. The company maintains an incredible 95.97% gross margin. This means that almost every dollar of revenue flows directly to the top line, reflecting a near-monopoly position in futures clearing. Furthermore, their expansion into new derivatives, like the Avalanche and Sui futures mentioned on April 9, shows they are successfully capturing volume from the crypto sector. At a P/E of 26.16, the market is pricing in steady growth, which is reasonable for a firm that effectively taxes the global financial system.

↓ Bajista

The fundamental growth at CME has completely stalled, leaving the stock stuck in a range with no clear catalyst for a breakout. The return on equity sits at 13.76%. This is a mediocre figure for a financial exchange, suggesting that the company is struggling to deploy its capital efficiently compared to high-growth peers. Additionally, the debt-to-equity ratio is currently 12.14. This high leverage indicates that the company is heavily reliant on borrowed funds to maintain its operations and dividend payouts, which leaves little room for error if trading volumes across their core markets begin to contract.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0,62
↑ Alcista

I think CME's core, fee-based model should generate durable cash flow, with meaningful upside from the crypto futures expansion. P/E TTM: 26.16. That suggests CME trades in line with peers for a steady, regulated exchange business. Gross margin TTM: 95.97%. That shows revenue almost all falls to the bottom line, enabling strong cash generation as volumes grow. Debt/Equity: 12.14. Low leverage keeps risk in check and leaves room to fund buybacks and growth initiatives if crypto lines add to revenue.

↓ Bajista

I think CME's upside could be capped if the crypto-derivatives push doesn't deliver volume or if regulatory shifts weigh on margins. P/E TTM: 26.16. That isn't cheap for a slow-growth period; a weak crypto cycle could compress the multiple. ROE TTM: 13.76%. That is below peers like MCO, suggesting CME isn't generating as much earnings from shareholder equity, which raises risk if growth slows. PS TTM: 8.7194. A high price-to-sales multiple makes the stock vulnerable to any revenue dip since investors are paying a premium for growth that may not materialize.

Ronda 2 — Respuestas y refutaciones

Grok

ChatGPT, calling a 12.14 debt-to-equity ratio 'low leverage' overlooks how it magnifies downside risks for CME in a volume slowdown. That means for every dollar of equity, the company carries over $12 in debt, which crushes returns if trading dries up — explaining the mediocre 13.76% ROE versus MCO's 62.81%. It's not a safety net; it's a vulnerability that caps aggressive growth bets like crypto futures.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's liquidity concern. A current ratio of 1.02 is tight, yes, but that's not the right lens for CME. This is a clearinghouse — they hold customer margin deposits that flow through the balance sheet as both assets and liabilities, which mechanically depresses the current ratio. The real question is whether CME can service its debt and fund operations, and at 33.33% net margin with $98 billion in market cap, that's not in doubt. Grok is conflating accounting structure with actual financial stress, which are different animals. The 12.14 debt-to-equity is real leverage, but it's not a liquidity crisis waiting to happen.

Gemini

Claude, your point about CME's debt-to-equity ratio being a structural weakness is spot on, but I think you are underestimating the impact of their current ratio of 1.02. That metric shows the company has barely enough liquid assets to cover its short-term obligations, leaving almost zero margin for error if market volatility spikes and clearing house capital requirements shift. While the 95.97% gross margin provides a massive buffer for profitability, the tight liquidity suggests management is running the balance sheet dangerously thin to support shareholder returns in a stagnant growth environment.

Chatgpt

Claude, I think your ROE critique misses the bigger cash-flow story CME prints. ROE TTM: 13.76%. That level signals a steady, cash-generating core rather than a high-growth engine, which matters for CME because durable fee-based cash flow underpins buybacks and dividends while it pursues crypto expansion and volatility-driven volumes, offering downside protection if volatility eases but upside if crypto activity re-accelerates.

Ronda 3 — Refutaciones finales

G
Grok

Gemini, I'm siding with Claude on the current ratio of 1.02 — it's not a red flag for CME because clearinghouses like this hold massive customer margin deposits that boost both current assets and liabilities equally, masking true liquidity strength. The real stress test is operational cash flow, covered by that 33.33% net margin which turns volume into profits effortlessly. Your volatility spike worry overstates the risk when margins provide the buffer.

C
Claude

I want to push back on ChatGPT's framing of CME's ROE as a 'steady cash-generating core.' A 13.76% ROE is not a feature — it's a red flag when you're carrying 12.14 times debt-to-equity. That leverage should be amplifying returns if management deployed it well, but it isn't. Compare that to ICE at 11.63% ROE with similar leverage, or MCO at 62.81% with far less debt. CME's problem isn't that it's boring; it's that the borrowed capital isn't earning its cost. The crypto futures expansion is real, but it's being grafted onto a machine that's already capital-inefficient. Until we see ROE move above 16–17%, the leverage is a drag, not a tool.

G
Gemini

I want to widen the frame here, because we are obsessing over the balance sheet while ignoring the macro regime shift. Grok and Claude, you are missing that CME’s growth is fundamentally tethered to the interest rate cycle, not just internal efficiency. We are currently seeing a flattening yield curve which historically compresses the hedging demand for interest rate futures, CME’s largest revenue driver. When rates stabilize, the volatility that drives their volume dries up. Even if they add new crypto products, those are rounding errors compared to the massive volume of Treasury futures that fuel their 33.33% net margin, or the percentage of revenue kept as pure profit.

C
Chatgpt

Grok, I think the big swing factor for CME in 2026Q2 is regulatory and macro dynamics around crypto derivatives. Metric: crypto derivatives volume. Higher volumes drive clearing and trading fees, so more activity lifts cash flow even if margins stay flat.

Pronósticos de Precios

Modelo Objetivo a 3M Objetivo a 6M Razonamiento
G Grok Objetivo a 3M $272.00 Objetivo a 6M $285.00 Razonamiento I think CME deserves a modest re-rating to recent highs if crypto futures deliver incremental volumes, but flat core growth keeps upside capped near $285. The key catalyst is CME's Q2 2026 earnings release around late July 2026, where Avalanche and Sui futures launch volumes — starting May 4 — could show 5-10% fee revenue lift if crypto stabilizes. The big risk is a flattening yield curve persisting into H2 2026, crimping interest rate futures that drive 70% of volumes and exposing the 12.14 debt/equity leverage. At 26.16 times trailing earnings, that's fair for steady 33% net margins but assumes no EPS growth — any pickup justifies $285.
C Claude Objetivo a 3M $282.00 Objetivo a 6M $295.00 Razonamiento CME is a mature cash machine trading at fair value, not a growth story — my thesis is that the stock re-rates higher only if crypto futures volumes materialize and the Fed signals a pivot away from sticky rates that compress hedging demand. The catalyst: CME's Q2 2026 earnings (late July) must show crypto derivatives revenue acceleration — Avalanche and Sui launching May 4 should show up in the print. The risk: if Treasury futures volumes contract because the yield curve stays flat and rate volatility dies, the 33.33% net margin compresses faster than crypto can offset. At 26.16x trailing earnings, CME isn't cheap for a stalled-growth utility, so upside requires proof that new asset classes drive incremental volume, not just cannibalization. My 3m target ($282) reflects modest recovery to May highs; 6m ($295) assumes Q2 earnings beat on crypto traction, justifying a modest multiple expansion to 28x on renewed confidence in the expansion thesis.
G Gemini Objetivo a 3M $272.00 Objetivo a 6M $285.00 Razonamiento My thesis is that CME will remain range-bound as the market waits for a definitive shift in interest rate volatility to drive volume. A concrete catalyst for the 6-month target is the August 2026 earnings report, where a sustained uptick in crypto-derivative volumes could finally signal a new growth engine outside of stagnant Treasury futures. Conversely, a sharp decline in market volatility would break my thesis by eroding trading demand. The current P/E of 26.16 means investors are paying a premium for a mature utility, and without a clear catalyst, the stock will likely struggle to justify a higher multiple until volumes accelerate.
C Chatgpt Objetivo a 3M $270.00 Objetivo a 6M $280.00 Razonamiento I think CME can drift modestly higher over the next several months as a steady, fee-based infrastructure play benefiting from crypto derivatives expansion, resilience in fee retention, and a supportive macro backdrop. Catalyst: CME's May 4 Avalanche and Sui futures launch could lift volumes if demand materializes. Risk: The biggest risk is crypto volumes disappoint or regulatory changes compress margins. At 266.3 today, the move to 270 and 280 implies a small re-rating.

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