Les contrats à terme baissent mais s'éloignent des plus bas de la séance alors que le pétrole dépasse les 100 $ avant le blocage de Hormuz par Trump à 10h.

Futures Slide But Off Session Lows As Oil Spikes Above $100 Ahead Of Trump's 10am Hormuz Blockade

Stock futures are lower, but off their worst levels of the session, as Brent crude surged 7% to over $102 after Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to take place at 10am ET. The moves look relatively contained given the breakdown of US-Iran talks, with strategists saying this is a moment to buy the dip. Goldman Sachs is kicking off the earnings season shortly with earnings that missed on FICC revenue, sending the stock lower. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts were both 0.7% lower with all Mag 7 names lower and Defensives leading Cyclicals ex-Energy. According to JPM, the market continues to price in a resolution leading to a lower than expected set of global losses, even as the situation remains a race against the clock with the world on the brink of an economic calamity; JPMorgan's commodity team has updated the timeline with impacts from shorts becoming more acute this week and through early May. Bonds trimmed initial losses, with the two-year Treasury yield up three basis points to 3.82% while 10Y yields also rise 3bps to 4.35% . The dollar rose 0.3%, its biggest advance in more than a week. Commodities are higher led by Ags and Energy with gold moderately lower near $4,710 an ounce as the dollar rose.  US economic data calendar includes March existing home sales at 10am New York time. Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 6:20pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are all lower: Meta -1%, Amazon -0.9%, Nvidia -1.3%, Alphabet -1%, Tesla -0.6%, Apple -0.5%, Microsoft -0.2%

Baker Hughes (BKR) rises 1% after Hexagon AB agreed to buy the company’s Waygate Technologies unit for about $1.45 billion in cash
Children’s Place (PLCE) falls 17% after the kids apparel retailer reported adjusted loss per share for the fourth quarter of $1.86 vs. a loss per share of 75 cents in the year-ago period.
Fastenal (FAST) slips 4% after the industrial supplies company reported operating income for the first quarter that came in just below the average analyst estimate.
GFL Environmental (GFL) falls over 3% after the waste management company agreed to acquire Canada’s Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. for C$24.75 per share representing an enterprise value of approximately C$6.4 billion. GFL is also trading ex-dividend on Monday.
Goldman Sachs (GS) slips 3% after reporting equities sales and trading revenue for the first quarter.
Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) rises 15% after the drug developer said a mid-late stage trial of its experimental combination therapy for a type of eye cancer had met its main goal.
Leggett & Platt (LEG) climbs 7% after bedding company Somnigroup agreed to buy the home furniture manufacturer in an all-stock deal valued at about $2.5 billion.
Replimune (REPL) plunges 63% after the US Food and Drug Administration rejected the company’s skin cancer treatment for a second time.
In corporate news, the federal government is moving to settle a case over Amazon’s treatment of a group of delivery drivers. Sweden’s Hexagon agreed to buy Waygate Technologies for about $1.45 billion in cash from Baker Hughes. Wise is on track to shift its primary listing from London to Nasdaq next month, with the US listing expected on May 11.

Shipments of oil and gas through the Hormuz strait remain in focus after Trump’s restrictions on vessels calling at Iranian ports threatened to deepen a global energy shock. If successful, the blockade would restrict the one Persian Gulf flow that has continued throughout the war, while Tehran’s warning to target vessels and ports in response amplifies the risks for other producers. Trump has made a “high stakes gamble aimed at forcing Iran to bow to his demands,” said Wealth Club strategist Susannah Streeter. The move makes the energy crisis even more acute, but Trump’s record of pulling back from the brink leaves markets hopeful an agreement can be salvaged, she said. The blockade may also be designed to pressure Beijing into playing a more active role in reopening the Strait, according to Capital Economics. In response, Iran said it will target all ports in or near the Persian Gulf if its shipping hubs are threatened

The relatively mild pullback in riskier assets suggested investors were cautiously optimistic that a resolution was still within reach. 

“I was expecting much worse both for the equity market and oil prices this morning,” said Mary-Sol Michel, director of discretionary portfolio management at Swiss Life Banque Privée. “The market sees the blockade as a negotiation tool, but nonetheless, I feel the impact on stocks is quite modest.”

Meanwhile, after a sharp bounce in stocks last week, strategists - always late to the party - are getting increasingly vocal about opportunities to buy the dip. JPMorgan’s Mislav Matejka picked up where his trading desk stopped last week, and said equities have historically proved resilient to oil shocks, with past crude spikes seeing S&P 500 returns positive over 6- and 12-month horizons. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson sees any renewed stock weakness as a buying opportunity, with a strong earnings backdrop anchoring his positive view. 

As we noted last week, Goldman traders’ models show CTAs turning into net buyers of US equities over both one-week and one-month horizons, regardless of market direction. In a flat market scenario alone, demand could reach roughly $45 billion over the next week, among the largest such inflows on record.

“Time is playing against markets as each day that goes by with oil prices this high weighs on global growth and pushes inflation,” said Gilles Guibout, head of European equities at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “It’s difficult to see how markets could stage a sustainable rebound without a sustainable solution to this crisis.”

With earnings season kicking off in earnest, investors are eager to hear from executives about risks stemming from the war, artificial intelligence and private credit. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will show roughly 12% annual growth for the first-quarter, but this drops to just 3% ex Mag 7. Unlike prior quarters, where valuations and expectations were high, the tech sector enters this cycle at its lowest multiple in years. We may be “approaching peak AI doomerism,” according to Gary Paulin of Northern Trust Asset Management, highlighting that compute capacity remains scarce and demand will likely exceed supply for years. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. fell 3.7% in the US premarket as a revenue miss in fixed-income, currency and commodities trading outweighed a record haul from equities.

In other assets, the prospect of an energy shock spurring inflation is hitting bonds and gold, while copper is tracking lower amid concern about damage to the global economy. The dollar, the wartime haven of choice, is higher against major peers.

Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.7% tracking losses in the US and Asia as energy prices spike. Hungary’s forint surged to a four-year high and local stocks hit a record after Prime Minister Viktor Orban lost Sunday’s election, with the opposition’s victory expected to help unlock billions of euros in European Union funding. Here are the biggest movers Monday: 

European airlines are under pressure as resurgent oil prices reignites concerns about fuel costs and Bernstein warning rising fuel costs will erode earnings
Meanwhile, oil stocks are the top performers on the Stoxx 600 Monday
Fertilizer stocks are gaining ground as the US threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz heightens expectations of possible supply disruptions, while President Donald Trump warned companies against price gouging
Wise shares rise as much as 6%, hitting their highest level in over six months, after the financial technology company delivered underlying income that mildly topped expectations
Polypeptide shares rise as much as 16% to the highest since December 2022. The Swiss contract development and manufacturing organization is attracting potential takeover interest from private equity firms
Vistry shares fall as much as 4.8% as the UK homebuilder promoted Adam Daniels to chief executive officer, succeeding Greg Fitzgerald with immediate effect. RBC says investors were expecting an external hire
Wickes shares drop as much as 5.9% after Panmure Liberum downgrades the home improvement retailer to hold, citing elevated spending and ambitious targets.
Asian equities fell as a surge in oil prices after US President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3%, with Samsung Electronics and Tencent Holdings among the biggest drags. Most markets in the region were in the red, while shares rose in mainland China. Thailand was closed for a holiday. Benchmarks in Taiwan and mainland China edged higher as Asia’s largest economy unveiled policy measures to demonstrate “goodwill” toward the island on Sunday, following a landmark meeting between President Xi Jinping and Taiwan opposition leader Cheng Li-wun. The Taiex Index closed at a record high.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.3%. The Norwegian krone is the best performing G-10 currency, rising 0.4% against the greenback. The Hungarian forint rallies over 2% against the euro after Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s election defeat.

In rates, treasuries are in the red, pushing US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 4.35% having partially recovered from opening gap down that followed US President Trump’s weekend order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after US-Iran peace talks failed; bunds and gilts underperform slightly. Gilts lead the rates selloff in European bond markets, with UK 10-year yields rising 3 bps to 4.86%.

In commodities, Brent crude futures are up over 7% and back above $100 a barrel while European natural gas futures jump 9%. Precious metals slide with spot silver down 2%.

The US economic data calendar includes March existing home sales at 10am New York time. Fed speaker slate includes Miran at 6:20pm

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -0.6%
Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
Russell 2000 mini -0.9%
Stoxx Europe 600 -0.6%
DAX -0.9%
CAC 40 -0.8%
10-year Treasury yield +2 basis points at 4.33%
VIX +2 points at 21.24
Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.3% at 1201.98
euro -0.3% at $1.1687
WTI crude +8.2% at $104.45/barrel
Top Overnight News

Oil jumped after Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran after the collapse of weekend peace talks. The blockade starts at 10 a.m. ET and applies to all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports. Iran’s military said it would target all ports in the Gulf region if its own shipping hubs are threatened. BBG
The UK won’t take part in the proposed Hormuz blockade, the government said, setting up another point of contention between Trump and PM Keir Starmer. BBG
Policymakers gathering for IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington this week will take a hard look at the war’s impact on all things economic. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva told CBS that prices will take time to come down even if a ceasefire holds. BBG
AI Is Using So Much Energy That Computing Firepower Is Running Out. AI companies are rationing offerings and products, rankling users—a warning sign for a boom that depends on rapid adoption. WSJ
Anthropic is gaining ground on OpenAI in the race for paying customers, as new data points to rising business adoption and a levelling-off in its rival’s growth. Nearly one in three US businesses paid for Anthropic’s tools in March, according to data from payments group Ramp, marking a rise of more than 6 percentage points from the previous month. FT
Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 1997. The BOJ’s policy decision this month is too close to call, a former executive director said. BBG
Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next chair of the Federal Reserve is at risk of being delayed until after the end of Jay Powell’s term, as Donald Trump’s pick to lead the central bank faces an increasingly tight timeline. FT
China announced measures to improve relations with Taiwan after a meeting between Xi Jinping and the island’s opposition leader, Cheng Li-wun. BBG
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a more cautious stance on the impact of the US-Iran conflict, cooling expectations of an interest rate hike later this month. BBG
Hedge Funds net bought Macro Products (Index and ETF combined) at the fastest pace since May ‘25 (+2.2 SDs 1-year), driven by short covers and long buys (2.4 to 1). US-listed ETF shorts decreased -11.5% (now down -6% MoM), the largest weekly % covering in the past decade (-3.2 z score), led by covers in Large Cap Equity and to a lesser extent Credit ETFs. Goldman Prime Brokerage
Iran War 

US delegation led by Vice President Vance left US-Iran talks in Pakistan to return to the US without an agreement after 21 hours of talks, while Vance said the US had sought an affirmative commitment Iran would not seek a nuclear weapon or tools to quickly achieve one, and the US left behind a “final and best offer”. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei said any success depended on the US refraining from excessive demands and unlawful requests, and negotiating with seriousness and good faith, while an Iranian report noted there was disagreement on several issues and that the Americans demanded through negotiations what they could not obtain through war.
US President Trump said the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, while he stated that the meeting went well and most points were agreed to, apart from nuclear, which was the only point that mattered. Trump also stated that at some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that by saying there may be mines somewhere, which is world extortion, and leaders of world countries, especially the US, will never be extorted. Furthermore, he said at an appropriate moment, the US is fully locked and loaded, and the military will finish up the little that is left of Iran, and warned that any Iranians who fire at the US or at peaceful vessels will be blown to hell.
US Central Command said it will begin implementing a blockade on all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on April 13th at 17:00 Israeli time (15:00BST/10:00EDT), although it would "not impede" vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz travelling to or from non-Iranian ports. US President Trump later posted that "The United States to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports on April 13 at 10:00 A.M. ET."
US President Trump and his advisers are weighing resuming limited strikes in Iran, in addition to the US blockade, to break the stalemate in peace talks, according to WSJ citing officials and people familiar with the situation. However, it was also reported that Trump is said to remain open to a diplomatic solution.
Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the US and Iran in the coming days, aiming to help close the gaps between US-Iran, Axios reported citing sources; all parties believe a deal is possible. This follows on from earlier reports by Pakistani press stating that Pakistani officials are continuing efforts to convince the US delegation to return to talks; talks took place in a positive atmosphere, indicating both sides are interested in continuing dialogue.
White House outlined the red lines it said Iran refused to agree onaccording to an official cited by CNN. Red lines included ending all of its uranium enrichment, dismantling its major nuclear enrichment facilities, retrieving the more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium believed to be buried underground, accepting a broader “peace, security and de-escalation framework” that includes regional allies, ending funding for terrorist proxy groups Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, fully opening the Strait of Hormuz, and charging no tolls for passage.
Iran's Foreign Minister posted "In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war. But when just inches away from "Islamabad MoU", we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade".
Iranian armed forces say if Iran’s ports are threatened, then "no port in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea will be safe", IRIB News reported.
Iranian National Security Commission Spokesman said US blockade claim is a bluff, ISNA reported.
IDF troops are expanding targeted ground operations against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Bint Jbeil area of southern Lebanon to strengthen forward defence. The statement said troops killed more than 100 Hezbollah fighters, dismantled dozens of infrastructure sites and found hundreds of weapons in the area.
Tasnim Agency reported, citing sources, US President Trump will lose the Bab al-Mandab Strait should he decide to take action against the Strait of Hormuz.
IRGC warns the approach of military vessels toward the Strait of Hormuz is a breach of the ceasefire, IRNA reported.
Israeli forces carry out two airstrikes near Choukine in southern Lebanon.
IDF defines Lebanon as the main arena at this stage, while Iran is defined as an "arena of readiness" – with high alertness for any development.
Israel has decided to establish 15 permanent camps along the front line of the Lebanese villages, Al Jazeera reported, citing Channel 12.
Israel reportedly conducts raid targeting Beyout Al-Siyad in southern Lebanon.
Sirens sound in Kiryat Shmona, Northern Israel, according to SNN, while Tasnim also reported that Hezbollah is conducting missile attacks on Israeli towns.
French President Macron said France and the UK will organise a conference in coming days aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in Hormuz. Macron said any Hormuz naval mission would be strictly defensive and stressed that every effort must be made to reach a lasting, solid diplomatic end to the Middle East conflict. He also reiterated the importance of finding a way to restore peace in Lebanon.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks declined after the negotiations marathon over the weekend between the US and Iran in Pakistan ended without an agreement, as the sides remained at loggerheads over Iran's nuclear ambitions. Furthermore, US President Trump announced a US naval blockade on ships travelling through the Strait of Hormuz, while the US military said it would start a blockade of Iranian ports on  Monday at 10:00EDT/15:00BST, but would "not impede" vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz travelling to or from other countries. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech and miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum following a surge in oil prices. Nikkei 225 retreated amid headwinds from the higher energy prices, which weighed heavily on power companies and large manufacturers, while there were also recent suggestions from Japan's economy minister that BoJ policy to boost the yen could be an option to curb inflation. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp followed suit to the losses in regional peers, with sentiment not helped by another meagre PBoC liquidity operation and with a mixed performance seen in tech stocks.

Top Asian News

Chinese Total Social Financing (Mar) 5230B vs. Exp. 5400B (Prev. 2380B).
Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth YoY (Mar) Y/Y 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 6.0%).
Chinese New Yuan Loans (Mar) 2990B vs. Exp. 3400B (Prev. 900B).
Chinese M2 Money Supply YoY (Mar) Y/Y 8.5% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prev. 9%).
New Zealand Services NZ PSI (Mar) 46.0 (Prev. 48, Rev. 47.6).
New Zealand Composite NZ PCI (Mar) 48.8 (Prev. 50.5).
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.6%) have started the week on the backfoot, following talks between the US and Iran resulting in no agreement. US President Trump, in response, stated that the US Navy is to begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, causing crude futures to surge. The DAX 40 is the underperformer, while the FTSE 100 is supported. Elsewhere, Hungary’s BUX index is surging following Peter Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority. European sectors point negatively, with all sectors in the red, except Energy. Cyclical sectors continue to be hit the hardest, with Travel & Leisure and Consumer Products & Services lying at the bottom of the pile. To add, SocGen downgraded multiple airlines (Ryanair, easyJet, Wizzair) as a result of the higher energy prices hitting the sector

Top European News

Peter Magyer's Tisza party wins the Hungarian election with a supermajority. Preliminary results, based on more than 98% of counted votes thus far, put Peter Magyar on course for 138 seats, exceeding the 133 seats needed for supermajority.
German Finance Minister Klingbeil said tobacco tax is to be increased in 2026 as counter-financing measure for tax relief bonus.
German CSU Leader Soeder said that it is right to tax excess profits from mineral oil companies at the European level.
Spanish PM Sanchez said Spain wants to cooperate with China in all areas.
Central Banks

BoJ Governor Ueda said Japan's economy is recovering moderately but with some weakness; said the economy and prices are moving roughly in line with BoJ forecasts; underlying inflation is gradually accelerating towards the BoJ's target.
ANZ revises outlook for RBNZ rate hikes in which it now sees hikes in July, September and October.
FX

FX markets are displaying a slight risk-off bias. A somewhat calm move in currency markets follows the conclusion of US-Iran talks without an agreement on the nuclear issue; however, both sides framed negotiations as positive and recent Qatari reporting suggests Pakistani officials are continuing efforts to bring both sides back to the negotiating table, each reportedly interested in continuing dialogue.
DXY trades without conviction on either side of a 99.00 handle. The buck looks towards a heavy week of Fed speak, alongside PPI data on Tuesday. On the docket today, uber-dove Miran is set to speak on "Building the Financial System."
HUF benefits from the election of the opposition Tisza’s Magyar. Preliminary results, based on more than 98% of counted votes, put Magyar on course for 138 seats (supermajority 133 seats). Although markets had already priced in a Magyar victory, a supermajority will catapult the incoming PM's bid to fast track various HUF-positive pledges (See Newsquawk Analysis on the headline feed). As such, EUR/HUF surpassed April 2022 lows, marking a session low of 364.02.
NZD remains the most resilient in the face of energy prices as markets move to price in 82bps of hikes by year-end, an increase of c. 7bps from Friday. Kiwi trades just off highs, after facing resistance at the 0.5840 mark.
Fixed Income

Global fixed benchmarks are entirely in the red this morning, with energy prices once again surging after the US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan ended without an agreement. Following this, US President Trump said the US Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz – this is expected to begin at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT.
USTs currently trade lower by a handful of ticks, and are currently trading at the mid-point of a 110-22+ to 111-00 range. European trade has seen US paper edge off worst levels, potentially as traders digest reports of the possibility of further talks, and as the ceasefire remains for now. Geopols aside, US existing home sales for March is due later, with Fed’s Miran also on the docket.
Bunds and Gilts have also been pressured, with some underperformance in Gilts, which are lower by around 50 ticks (vs Bunds -24 ticks). Both, as with USTs, are off worst levels. As above, Gilts and Bunds are moving at the whim of geopolitical developments, given the regions’ net-importer of oil statuses. Homing in on Germany, earlier today, the Merz coalition agreed on measures worth EUR 1.6bln to ease the impact of surging energy prices on the German consumer.
From a yield perspective, the German 2yr has jumped back towards 2.637% (vs Friday close at 2.588%). The 2-year BTP-Bund spread has widened ever so slightly vs Friday’s close, but remains well off the peaks from the heights of the Iran war. Commerzbank’s rate strategist Siemssen said “we would probably need to see a more significant escalation for BTP-Bund spreads to test the March highs again”, adding that “BTPs should also underperform OATs again this week as they are more susceptible to energy prices”.
Trade/Tariffs

Japan Post (6178 JT) to resume accepting all US-bound mail from Tuesday, after 7-month suspension due to end of ‘de minimis’ exemption, according to a statement.
China Foreign Ministry, on Trump threatening tariffs if China supplies weapons to Iran, said trade wars have no winners.
China is to remove tariffs on all products imported from 53 African nations starting May 1st, according to Caixin.
India is to relax market access for European-standard medical devices.
Commodities

US-Iran peace talks over the weekend collapsed, and Washington announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10:00EDT/15:00BST on Monday, applying to all vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. Trump and his advisers are also weighing limited military strikes against Iran, though a full bombing campaign is considered less likely. Iran’s military adviser said Tehran “will not allow” the embargo. (full Newsquawk Analysis on the feed).
Brent surged above USD 100/bbl, with some analysts forecasting prices could rise to USD 150/bbl if the blockade proceeds along the waterway, which carried around one-fifth of global oil and LNG before the conflict. Brent Jun resides in a current USD 100.94-103.87/bbl range and WTI Jun in a USD 93.58-96.93/bbl parameter. Dutch TTF futures jumped above EUR 51.30/MWh before paring gains, with Bloomberg noting the contract’s trading day was extended to 21 hours from 10. The May and June contracts currently reside sub-EUR 50/MWh.
Spot gold fell below USD 4,650/oz before paring losses, and currently trades around USD 4,725/oz, pressured by a stronger USD and fears of central bank rate increases. Spot gold resides in a USD 4,644-4,740/oz range at the time of writing.
Copper fell, and aluminium spiked, with metals broadly facing weaker demand risks as soaring energy prices weigh on the global economy. 3M LME copper oscillates in a USD 12,684.63- 12,920.23/t range at the time of writing.
CPC’s oil exports rose 48% in March from February to 1.58mln bpd, boosted by recovery at the Tengiz field, according to sources cited by Reuters. CPC exports boosted by Tengiz field recovery.
German Government to reduce energy tax on diesel and petrol by EUR 0.17/L for two months. Employers may provide employees with tax-free bonus of EUR 1000 as part of tax reform. Income tax reform will be adopted in January.
Kuwait raises May crude prices for Asia, according to pricing document.
Saudi Aramco's crude sales to China is set to half next month to around 20mln barrels, Bloomberg reported citing sources.
Geopol

Taiwan will carry out new drills in coming weeks to ensure the island has access to vital supplies in the event of a Chinese blockade.
US Event Calendar

10:00 am: United States Mar Existing Home Sales, est. 4.05m, prior 4.09m
6:20 pm: United States Fed’s Miran in Moderated Conversation
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning after no deal was reached in the US-Iran talks over the weekend, with the US set to blockade the Strait of Hormuz for vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. So despite last week’s optimism when the two-week ceasefire was announced, the mood has shifted negatively once again, with Brent crude oil prices up +7.39% this morning to $102.24/bbl. And in turn, that’s revived fears about a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground around the world.

Against that backdrop, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.73% this morning, whilst those on the DAX are down -1.47%, which fits with the pattern of European assets underperforming given the continent’s greater exposure to an energy shock. Meanwhile in Asia overnight, we’ve seen losses for the Nikkei (-1.11%), KOSPI (-1.27%), Hang Seng (-1.18%), CSI 300 (-0.12%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.17%). Those declines have been echoed in fixed income too, with 10yr JGB yields hitting a post-1997 high of 2.49% overnight, although they’re since down a bit to 2.45%, whilst 10yr Treasury yields (+3.2bps) are back up to 4.35%. So markets are struggling across the board, and the US Dollar has strengthened against all its G10 counterparts.

To bring you up to speed with the weekend developments, the US and Iran held direct talks in Pakistan over the weekend, but no deal was reached. US Vice President JD Vance said that the Iranians “have chosen not to accept our terms”, and the US “need to see an affirmative commitment that they will not seek a nuclear weapon”. Then on the Iranian side, a foreign ministry spokesman said on state TV that “on two or three key points, there were gaps in positions”, and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf said that the US “were unable in this round of talks to gain the trust of the Iranian delegation”.

Yet despite the breakdown in the talks, there were some hopes that a deal might still be reached, particularly given the two-week ceasefire is still in place. Indeed, Trump posted afterwards that “most points were agreed to, but the only point that really mattered, NUCLEAR, was not.” So that raised the prospect that something might still be worked out in the days ahead, and on the Iranian side, the foreign ministry spokesman said that “diplomacy never ends”. Moreover, the WSJ reported last night that “regional countries” were working to bring the US and Iran back to negotiations, and that a second round of talks “could be held within days”, according to those regional officials.

Nevertheless, Trump also posted that the US Navy would “begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” And it’s been confirmed that the Hormuz blockade will begin at 10am Eastern time today, covering vessels entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas. However, US Central Command said that forces would not impede freedom of navigation for those vessels moving to non-Iranian ports. Otherwise, Trump said he’d instructed the Navy to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran”, and that they’d “also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits.” Meanwhile on the Iranian side, the IRGC said that if a military vessel attempted to approach the Strait of Hormuz under any “pretext or excuse”, it would be considered a ceasefire violation.

All this comes as the economic impact of the conflict is increasingly clear. In fact, the US CPI print for March came out on Friday, which showed headline inflation at a monthly pace of +0.87% in March, the biggest monthly price gain since June 2022. That was driven by a +21.2% surge in the cost of gasoline, which was the biggest monthly jump in records back to 1967. And in turn, that pushed up year-on-year CPI to +3.3%, the highest since May 2024. Clearly it’s just one month, and core CPI had a much softer +0.20% monthly print, but the inflationary backdrop is making it much more difficult for the Fed to keep cutting rates this year. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday that Treasury Secretary Bessent had spoken with Trump about the market reaction to the war, discussing measures the Treasury could implement if the war lasted 8-12 weeks.

Elsewhere over the weekend, the Hungarian forint is up +2.15% against the Euro after the country’s opposition Tisza party won the general election on Sunday. With almost 99% of the votes counted, they’re on course for a two-thirds majority in parliament, whilst incumbent PM Viktor Orban has conceded defeat, having been in office since 2010. For those interested, our colleagues in the CEEMEA Research team have published a note on the results.

When it comes to the week ahead, clearly the Iran conflict will be the main focus, but there are a few other things to look out on the calendar. First, the Q1 earnings season will start to kick off, with this week’s releases including several US financials. Our US equity strategists have a full preview, and they argue that the bottom up-analyst consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating into the mid-teens (16%) is justified by a favourable macro environment. Indeed, they expect growth to come in even stronger at 19%, with growth broadening across sectors, albeit clearly led by megacap growth and tech, along with the financials. In terms of this week’s releases, we’ll hear from Goldman Sachs today, BlackRock, JPMorgan and Citigroup on Tuesday, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, and Netflix on Thursday.

Otherwise, we have a few more data releases this week that will give us a fuller picture of how the global economy performed in Q1. A key highlight will be China’s Q1 GDP growth, with DB’s economists expecting that to come in at +4.6% on a year-on-year basis. Then in the US, this week’s highlights include the PPI inflation reading, and our economists expect there to be strong gains, echoing the uptick in the CPI last Friday. So for headline PPI, they’re looking for a monthly print of +1.0%, which would be the strongest since March 2022. And as ever, the focus will be on those components of the PPI that feed into core PCE, which is closely followed by the Fed.

On the policy side, the focus will be on Washington DC, as the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank are taking place over this week. So we’ll be hearing from a lot of officials around those events, including ECB President Lagarde and BoE Governor Bailey. Moreover, we’ll also get the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook tomorrow, and this week will be the last chance to hear from Federal Reserve officials, as their blackout period ahead of the April meeting begins on Saturday.

Recapping last week now, markets put in a strong performance overall, as the two-week ceasefire led to growing optimism about a de-escalation pathway in the Middle East. So that drove a significant decline in oil prices, with Brent crude down -12.68% last week to $95.20/bbl, marking its biggest weekly decline since June. And in turn, that significantly eased fears about a potential stagflationary shock, leading to a global rally across multiple asset classes.

That was particularly clear for equities, which put in a strong performance across the board. For instance, the S&P 500 (+3.56%) saw its biggest weekly jump so far this year, lifted by an even stronger gain for the Magnificent 7 (+5.12%). Then in Europe, there were also significant gains, with the STOXX 600 up +3.05%, whilst France’s CAC 40 (+3.73%) saw its biggest weekly jump in over a year, and Italy’s FTSE MIB (+4.35%) ended the week at a post-2000 high. Meanwhile in Japan, the Nikkei (+7.15%) had its best weekly performance since 2024. And in emerging markets, the MSCI EM Index (+7.39%) posted its best week since 2020.

For fixed income however, there was a more mixed performance over the week as a whole. In the US, Treasury yields fell a bit, as expectations grew that the Fed might still be able to cut rates this year. Indeed, the futures-implied probability of a cut by December was up to 26% by Friday’s close, up from 19% the previous week. And in turn, the 2yr yield fell -4.4bps last week to 3.80%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -2.4bps to 4.32%. Over in Europe, expectations about an April rate hike from the ECB also eased, falling back from 50% to 34% last week. So that helped the 2yr German yield to fall -1.4bps to 2.60%. But the 10yr bund yield moved back up, rising +6.5bps to 3.06%. Finally in credit, spreads tightened across the board, with US IG (-2bps) and HY spreads (-21bps) both falling last week, whilst Euro IG (-9bps) and HY spreads (-24bs) also fell back.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 04/13/2026 - 08:23