Oleh Maksym Misichenko · The Guardian ·
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The panel agrees that the US-Iran 60-day truce renewal has bullish implications for equities due to lower oil prices, but they caution about potential risks such as demand contraction, geopolitical flare-ups, and the temporary nature of the deal. The panel is divided on the impact on rates, with some expecting cuts due to lower inflation and others seeing a cautious Fed stance due to sticky inflation dynamics.
Risiko: Demand contraction leading to a recession, which could pressure earnings growth and equity multiples despite lower rates.
Peluang: Potential localized fiscal stimulus in the Middle East if the US-Iran deal includes unfreezing of assets, leading to a liquidity injection and a 'melt-up' in the S&P 500.
Analisis ini dihasilkan oleh pipeline StockScreener — empat LLM terkemuka (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) menerima prompt identik dengan perlindungan anti-halusinasi bawaan. Baca metodologi →
Pasar saham di Eropa telah dibuka lebih tinggi pagi ini, di tengah optimisme hati-hati bahwa AS dan Iran berada di ambang mencapai perpanjangan gencatan senjata selama 60 hari.
Indeks FTSE 100 Inggris, yang merupakan saham blue chip, telah dibuka sekitar 0,1% lebih tinggi pagi ini. Stoxx Europe 600 naik 0,3%.
Mohit Kumar, dari broker Jefferies, menjelaskan bahwa kesepakatan AS-Iran dapat berdampak lebih besar pada ekspektasi investor terhadap pergerakan suku bunga tahun ini daripada di pasar saham.
Dalam hal reaksi pasar jika kesepakatan disepakati, kita akan melihat peningkatan lebih lanjut pada aset berisiko dan penurunan suku bunga. Namun, posisi menunjukkan bahwa pasar suku bunga harus bereaksi lebih besar daripada ekuitas.
Untuk ekuitas, kami masih bullish, tetapi percaya bahwa bagian mudah dari reli sudah berada di belakang kami. Posisi S&P berada sedikit di atas 5, sementara Eurostoxx berada di +2,2. Posisi belum terlalu ekstensif, tetapi di luar reaksi lega dari kesepakatan, kami tidak melihat pergerakan yang signifikan lebih tinggi dari level ini. Ekuitas Eropa dapat memperoleh dorongan lebih tinggi dalam jangka pendek hanya karena posisi jauh lebih tidak padat daripada di AS.
Untuk suku bunga, posisi berada di sisi pendek, dengan posisi [US Treasuries] sedikit di bawah -4 dan Bunds mendekati -3. Reli terbaru dalam suku bunga telah menyebabkan beberapa penutupan posisi pendek baik di AS maupun Eropa, tetapi kami masih melihat ruang untuk bergerak lebih jauh. Pandangan kami tetap bahwa ujung depan Eropa, Inggris, dan AS masih salah harga. Untuk ECB, kami dapat melihat satu kenaikan (pada bulan Juni), hanya karena mereka harus membenarkan kredibilitas inflasi mereka. Namun, kami tidak melihat serangkaian kenaikan suku bunga dan mempertahankan posisi panjang kami di ujung depan kurva.
Untuk Fed dan BoE, kami tetap berpandangan bahwa langkah selanjutnya adalah pemotongan, bukan kenaikan. Pasar telah memperhitungkan kembali di Inggris dengan hanya 35bp kenaikan yang diperkirakan untuk tahun ini dan kurang dari 2 kenaikan hingga terminal. Pandangan kami tetap bahwa BoE akan menaikkan suku bunga menuju 3% pada pertengahan tahun depan dan mempertahankan posisi panjang kami di ujung depan kurva.
Untuk Fed, kami tidak melihat Fed Warsh memberikan kenaikan apa pun. Bagi kami, pertanyaannya adalah kapan, bukan jika, akan ada pemotongan. Dari perspektif fundamental, kami akan berpendapat bahwa inflasi jangka pendek akan tinggi dan oleh karena itu akan sulit bagi Warsh untuk memberikan pemotongan suku bunga sebelum pemilihan umum. Tetapi ada unsur politik, dan pada akhirnya akan tergantung pada seberapa cepat harga minyak turun di bawah $80 dan bank sentral mulai memperlakukan guncangan harga minyak terbaru sebagai efek sementara pada inflasi daripada menyebabkan efek kedua. Kasus dasar kami tetap satu dari 2 pemotongan suku bunga selama 12 bulan berikutnya.
Minyak menuju salah satu penurunan bulanan terbesar yang pernah ada
Minyak mentah Brent, tolok ukur internasional untuk minyak, menuju salah satu penurunan bulanan terbesar yang pernah ada karena mendekati penurunan 17% sejak awal Mei.
Pasar berharap bahwa kesepakatan AS-Iran, yang akan memperpanjang gencatan senjata selama 60 hari dan membuka kembali selat Hormuz, akan terwujud.
Jim Reid dari Deutsche Bank mencatat bahwa detailnya akan penting, tetapi bahwa “Sekretaris Keuangan AS Bessent mengatakan bahwa tiga ‘garis merah’ Trump untuk kesepakatan adalah Iran membuka Selat Hormuz, menyerahkan uranium yang diperkaya, dan mengakhiri program nuklirnya. Dan Bessent juga memposting lebih awal hari itu bahwa AS ‘tidak akan menoleransi upaya apa pun untuk memberlakukan sistem tol di Selat Hormuz.’”
Sementara berita geopolitik memberikan dorongan utama ke pasar kemarin, mereka mendapat dukungan lebih lanjut setelah rilis cetak biru PCE inflasi AS terbaru lebih lunak dari yang diperkirakan, meredakan kekhawatiran tentang perlunya kenaikan suku bunga. Rilis menunjukkan bahwa PCE headline hanya naik +0,4% pada bulan April (vs. +0,5% yang diperkirakan), sementara PCE inti naik +0,2% (vs. +0,3% yang diperkirakan). Jadi itu menyebabkan investor menarik kembali ekspektasi untuk kenaikan suku bunga Fed, dengan probabilitas kenaikan pada bulan Desember turun menjadi 59% pada penutupan, setelah sebelumnya berada di 62%.
Pejabat Fed juga tidak terdengar terburu-buru untuk menaikkan suku bunga, dengan Presiden NY Fed Williams mengatakan bahwa kebijakan moneter “berada di tempat yang kami inginkan”. Sebenarnya, ada diskusi tentang kenaikan, dengan Presiden Fed St Louis Musalem mengakui bahwa “ada skenario di mana ekonomi mungkin memerlukan kenaikan suku bunga”, tetapi itu masih bersyarat.
Drafnya mirip dengan yang telah beredar di Timur Tengah, di mana selat Hormuz akan dibuka untuk pengiriman komersial, blokade AS atas pelabuhan Iran akan dicabut, dan Iran akan diberikan akses ke aset beku senilai hingga $12 miliar (£9 miliar).
Tujuannya adalah agar pengiriman komersial di selat kembali ke level pra-perang dalam waktu 30 hari. Negosiasi diperkirakan akan berlangsung selama 60 hari mengenai masa depan program nuklir Iran.
Saham naik kuat di Asia, dengan Nikkei Jepang naik 2,65%, Hang Seng Hong Kong naik 0,9% dan Kospi Korea Selatan naik 3,6%.
Beberapa reli di Asia didukung oleh antusiasme untuk AI – saham dari raksasa pembuat chip TSMC naik 2,6%, sementara Samsung Electronics dan SK Hynix naik 6% dan 0,6%, masing-masing.
Harga minyak juga turun pagi ini. Minyak mentah Brent, tolok ukur internasional, turun sekitar 1% menjadi $93,02 per barel karena investor menimbang dampak potensi pembukaan kembali selat Hormuz.
Agenda
7.45am BST: Laporan inflasi Prancis
8.am BST: Laporan inflasi Spanyol
9.20am BST: Pidato Andrew Bailey di konferensi ekonomi Reykjavik 2026
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"Any equity relief rally from the truce will be capped because positioning is already stretched and the nuclear concessions required make a durable deal unlikely within 60 days."
The article frames a US-Iran 60-day truce renewal as a clear positive for equities and rates via lower oil and softer PCE, yet glosses over execution risks and the temporary nature of any deal. Jefferies data already shows S&P positioning above 5 with limited further upside, while European equities gain only from relative under-positioning. Brent at $93 still leaves room for second-round inflation effects if the strait reopens slowly or nuclear talks stall. Front-end rate cuts priced for Fed and BoE rest on oil falling below $80 quickly, an assumption the article treats as probable rather than conditional.
Even if the deal collapses, the article's own PCE print and Williams comments already show markets dialing back December hike odds to 59%, limiting any sharp reversal.
"The market is pricing a successful Iran deal *and* sustained low oil *and* Fed cuts, but only one of those three needs to fail for this rally to reverse sharply."
The article conflates two separate bullish narratives—Iran deal + soft PCE—into one momentum story, but they point in opposite directions on rates. A US-Iran deal should push oil lower and rates higher (inflation relief), yet Kumar explicitly argues rates will fall more than equities rise. That's only true if the deal *fails* or disappoints, triggering risk-off. The 17% monthly oil drop is already priced in; Brent at $93 isn't crisis-level. The real tension: if the deal holds and Hormuz reopens, oil stays subdued, inflation stays benign, and the Fed cuts sooner—bullish equities long-term but bearish near-term if positioning unwinds. The article treats this as unambiguously positive; it's actually a Goldilocks scenario that's fragile.
Iran deal talks have collapsed before; a 60-day truce is a ceasefire, not a resolution. If negotiations stall in week 4, oil spikes back above $100, inflation re-accelerates, and the Fed's 'cuts by mid-year' thesis evaporates—leaving equities at 5200+ on the S&P with no rate support.
"The current equity rally is a fragile reaction to geopolitical headline risk that ignores the recessionary implications of a rapid decline in oil prices."
The market is prematurely pricing in a geopolitical 'all-clear' signal. While a 60-day truce and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would alleviate immediate supply-side inflationary pressure, the structural issues—specifically the $12bn in frozen assets and the unresolved nuclear status—remain massive tail risks. Equity markets are currently trading on 'relief' rather than 'fundamentals,' ignoring that if oil drops below $80, it likely reflects a sharp contraction in global demand rather than a diplomatic triumph. I am skeptical of the 'soft landing' narrative; if the Fed or BoE pivots to cuts, it may be because they see a recessionary cliff, not because inflation has been tamed. Stick to defensive quality in the Eurostoxx 600.
A successful reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a massive supply-side disinflationary shock, providing the 'immaculate disinflation' environment that allows central banks to cut rates while growth remains resilient.
"Durable de-escalation in the Middle East and a credible inflation decline are prerequisites for a durable rally; near-term moves may look constructive, but durability is uncertain."
Even with a US-Iran pause, the macro setup remains delicate. The 60-day truce narrative could be short-lived if sanctions relief or Hormuz reopening details don’t hold, leaving markets vulnerable to a swift reversal. The article’s tilt to imminent Fed cuts hinges on inflation fading; but PCE shows stickier dynamics that could push the Fed toward a cautious stance, delaying the expected easing path and weighing on risk assets later. A sharp, durable oil-price rebound or a geopolitical flare-up could derail optimism. Asia tech gains look supportive, but they’re a fragile offset to potential macroheadwinds and policy risks elsewhere.
The deal’s durability is highly uncertain; even a temporary easing could fail to translate into lasting relief if inflation proves stickier than hoped or if tensions re-escalate, risking a quick afterglow fade.
"Oil falling from demand weakness would hurt equities more than any rate relief helps."
Claude's rate-equity divergence claim assumes supply relief dominates, but ignores that Brent's path below $80 could stem from demand contraction rather than Hormuz reopening. That scenario would accelerate Fed cuts while simultaneously pressuring earnings growth and equity multiples, especially with S&P already net long above 5. The article's PCE softness then becomes a lagging indicator, not a leading one, leaving the bullish tilt exposed if global PMI data softens further in coming weeks.
"Oil falling on demand contraction, not geopolitical relief, flips the bullish narrative into a recession signal masked by rate cuts."
Grok's demand-contraction scenario is the crux nobody's stress-tested hard enough. If PMI rolls over *before* Hormuz reopens, oil falls on recession fears, not supply relief—and the Fed cuts into weakness, not strength. That's bearish equities even with lower rates. The article assumes supply shock; Grok's right that demand shock inverts the entire thesis. We need Q1 PMI data to disambiguate, but positioning above 5 on the S&P leaves no margin for that miss.
"The potential for unfreezing Iranian assets introduces a fiscal liquidity factor that overrides the simple supply-side oil narrative."
Claude and Grok are fixated on the supply-demand oil dichotomy, but both miss the fiscal impulse. If the US-Iran deal includes any unfreezing of assets, we face a liquidity injection that contradicts the 'recessionary cliff' thesis Gemini fears. This isn't just about oil prices; it's about the potential for localized fiscal stimulus in the Middle East. If the Fed cuts while liquidity expands, the S&P 500's current positioning isn't just 'fragile'—it's a coiled spring for a melt-up.
"A demand-driven oil drop without Hormuz reopening would push earnings risk and valuation compression, turning the supply-relief narrative into near-term earnings disappointment."
Grok's demand-contraction path as the driver behind Brent below $80 is plausible, but it misses that earnings risk and risk premium would tighten despite lower rates, potentially triggering a larger drawdown in equities than the relief rally priced in. If PMI weakens before any Hormuz reopening, the Fed cuts may come late and valuation compression could dominate, turning a supply-relief narrative into near-term earnings disappointment.
The panel agrees that the US-Iran 60-day truce renewal has bullish implications for equities due to lower oil prices, but they caution about potential risks such as demand contraction, geopolitical flare-ups, and the temporary nature of the deal. The panel is divided on the impact on rates, with some expecting cuts due to lower inflation and others seeing a cautious Fed stance due to sticky inflation dynamics.
Potential localized fiscal stimulus in the Middle East if the US-Iran deal includes unfreezing of assets, leading to a liquidity injection and a 'melt-up' in the S&P 500.
Demand contraction leading to a recession, which could pressure earnings growth and equity multiples despite lower rates.