Bitcoin Bisa Turun 25%, Atau Naik 120%. Selamat Datang ke Grind Crypto 2026

Key Takeaways
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Bitcoin's recent rise to around the $75,000 level hasn’t fully convinced digital asset experts that the cryptocurrency has shaken off its rut.
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Citi's research team cut its base-case price target on bitcoin to $112,000, with its bull and bear cases implying possible upside of about 120% and downside of 25%.
Bitcoin's new nickname might be “Steady Eddie.”
The world's largest cryptocurrency appears to be a slow-grind asset now, though its roughly 10% climb since the start of the Iran war, outpacing gold and the S&P 500, is starting to be appreciated by investors eyeing its performance amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The price of bitcoin briefly touched $76,000 Monday evening, and was trading at $74,500 late Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision—traders largely expect no change—tomorrow afternoon.
Digital asset experts aren’t entirely convinced that bitcoin's gradual ascent will last. One bank cut its year-end price target on the coin on Monday, citing molasses-like legislative progress that the firm suspects is holding back investor adoption. Between the closing window for crypto's catalytic Clarity Act—the key piece of crypto legislation that would set a framework for evaluating what tokens are securities, and which are commodities—to pass, and the general macroeconomic uncertainty, the prospects for risk assets remain dubious, according to analysts.
Important to Note
Institutional adoption of cryptocurrency appears to have its pros and cons. The positive: asset managers say that well-heeled investors have so-called “diamond hands,” holding onto positions in risky assets even during times of volatility. The negative: bitcoin's moves are a lot less impressive these days than they were before.
Citi Research cut its price target on bitcoin on Monday to $112,000 from $143,000 previously, citing “slow legislative progress” in the Clarity Act. A regulatory advance would “unlock” investor demand and drive flows to ETFs, according to Citi research strategist Alex Saunders, but “paradoxically” weak coin prices would “increase the likelihood of compromise from the crypto industry.”
“We think the window of opportunity is narrowing and would like to see some draft language from the Senate in April for there still to be a chance of passage,” he said in the research report. “Bitcoin is likely to range-trade anticipating legislative news flow with ~$70k an important level representing the pre-US election price.”