Jim Cramer Menyebut Saham Seperti Sandisk Berhasil Karena 'Kekurangan'

Yahoo Finance 26 Apr 2026 07:01 ▬ Mixed Asli ↗

SNDK supply shortages drive revenue growth SNDK

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The panel is largely bearish on memory stocks like Western Digital (WDC) and Micron (MU), citing cyclical nature of NAND flash, potential supply glut due to aggressive capacity expansions by Chinese players like YMTC, and uncertainty in AI-driven demand. They warn against chasing momentum and highlight the risk of margin compression.

Risiko: Looming supply shock from YMTC and other Chinese fabs leading to margin compression and multiple compression before 2026.

Peluang: Potential short-term re-rating to 15x forward P/E if Q3 earnings confirm sustained utilization and pricing power.

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Artikel Lengkap Yahoo Finance

Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) termasuk dalam panggilan saham Jim Cramer saat ia menyarankan bahwa banyak saham yang panas dapat terus menghasilkan uang bagi investor. Memulai daftarnya atas saham yang baru-baru ini mengalami reli signifikan yang ia lewatkan, Cramer menyebutkan perusahaan tersebut dan berkata:

Aku akan membicarakan 16 [saham] yang tidak berhasil kudapatkan, tidak bisa kubawa masuk… Mereka begitu jauh dari tempat aku pertama kali ingin membelinya sehingga aku hanya harus mengatakan aku terlambat, lupakan saja mereka. Kecuali bahwa berulang kali itu akan berhasil jika aku tidak melupakan mereka, jika aku hanya membelinya hari ini atau kemarin, sehari sebelumnya, seminggu sebelumnya, sebulan sebelumnya, apa pun. Saham-saham manis yang membuatku hancur? Mari mulai dengan memori dan penyimpanan, ya, perangkat yang menyimpan data. Siap? Kau bisa mencatatnya, tetapi mereka begitu panas hingga akan membakar kertas. Seagate, Sandisk, Western Digital, dan Micron. Aku menyukai semuanya…

Dengarkan aku. Saham-saham ini didorong naik oleh pembeli yang putus asa dengan pesanan persisten yang menaikkan mereka setiap hari. Dan sekarang aku akan memberitahu cara kerjanya. Katakanlah kau ingin beberapa Sandisk, oke, begitu juga banyak orang lain. Dengan saham di, katakanlah, $957, kau masuk, dan kau memasang pesanan seperti ini $957, kan? Sandisk, belikan aku 100.000 dengan batas atas $1.000. Setengah lusin pembeli sebenarnya memasang pesanan yang sama secara bersamaan denganmu, secara harfiah. Dan itulah mengapa saham bisa reli 8,4% hari ini, naik 75 dolar.

Pesanan-pesanan ini sering ditempatkan sebelum pasar dibuka. Ini seperti kereta api, dan mereka tidak ingin melewatkannya. Pesanan-pesanan ini dan orang-orang tidak memiliki kata menyerah, dan itulah cara saham naik secara dramatis. Pembeli-pembeli ganda dengan batas atas tinggi hanya membeli dan membeli. Mengapa saham memori ini berhasil? Sederhana, kekurangan. AI membutuhkan jumlah memori yang sangat besar. Tidak ada siapa pun di industri ini yang siap untuk tingkat permintaan tersebut. Akan butuh bertahun-tahun bagi mereka untuk membangun kapasitas produksi yang cukup untuk memenuhi permintaan.

Grafik pasar saham. Foto oleh Kaboompics.com di Pexels

Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK) menjual solusi penyimpanan berbasis NAND flash, termasuk solid-state drive, penyimpanan tersemat, kartu yang dapat dilepas, dan flashdisk.

Meskipun kami mengakui potensi SNDK sebagai investasi, kami percaya beberapa saham AI menawarkan potensi kenaikan yang lebih besar dan membawa risiko kerugian yang lebih kecil. Jika Anda mencari saham AI yang sangat kurang dinilai dan juga mendapat manfaat signifikan dari tarif era Trump dan tren penempatan kembali (onshoring), lihat laporan gratis kami tentang saham AI jangka pendek terbaik.

BACA BERIKUT: 33 Saham yang Harus Berlipat Ganda dalam 3 Tahun dan 15 Saham yang Akan Membuatmu Kaya dalam 10 Tahun** **

Penafian: Tidak ada. Ikuti Insider Monkey di Berita Google.

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Pandangan Pembuka

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"The reliance on 'shortages' as a thesis ignores the inherent cyclicality of the memory industry and the risk of over-capacity as manufacturers aggressively chase AI-driven capital expenditures."

Cramer’s focus on 'shortages' as a perpetual engine for memory stocks like SNDK (now part of Western Digital) ignores the cyclical, commodity-like nature of NAND flash. While AI demand is real, memory is notoriously prone to 'bullwhip effects’—where manufacturers over-expand capacity to meet perceived shortages, leading to a supply glut and margin compression once the build-out matures. Buying into a parabolic move driven by 'persistent orders' is essentially chasing momentum at the peak of a cycle. Without clear visibility into long-term pricing power versus the inevitable capital expenditure cycle, this looks like a classic late-cycle trap rather than a structural growth opportunity.

Pendapat Kontra

If AI infrastructure spending remains non-discretionary and supply-constrained for the next 36 months, the historical boom-bust cycle of memory may be permanently broken by a new, higher-margin demand floor.

SNDK (Western Digital)

Grok by xAI

▲ Bullish

"AI NAND shortages create multi-year tailwinds for MU/WDC/STX, with forward multiples too cheap for 20%+ EPS growth if demand holds."

Jim Cramer's shoutout underscores real AI-driven NAND flash shortages boosting memory stocks: Seagate (STX), Western Digital (WDC, which acquired delisted SNDK in 2016), and Micron (MU). Data centers guzzle storage for AI training/inference; supply ramps lag 2-3 years amid fab constraints. MU's 10.5x forward P/E (vs. 25% EPS growth est.) and WDC's 8x imply re-rating potential to 15x if Q3 guides confirm. Momentum from pre-market 'top-of-book' orders is textbook, but sustainable if utilization >90%. Article's $957 SNDK price flags outdated context—focus on live tickers. Sector EBITDA margins could hit 30%+ short-term.

Pendapat Kontra

NAND is hyper-cyclical; AI hype has spurred $50B+ capex commitments, risking 2026 oversupply glut and margin collapse to negative territory as seen in 2019-2021.

memory storage sector (MU, WDC, STX)

Claude by Anthropic

▼ Bearish

"Cramer is describing technical momentum from desperate order-stacking, not fundamental demand strength—and he's using it to justify entry into a cyclical commodity at elevated multiples after a 75-point single-day move."

Cramer's observation about order flow mechanics is real—large institutional buyers with high limit orders do create momentum. But he's conflating two separate things: (1) technical buying pressure, which is temporary and reversible, and (2) structural demand from AI. The shortage narrative is partially true but aging. NAND flash capacity additions from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Kioxia are already ramping. SNDK trades at ~8x forward earnings with 15% gross margins—not cheap for a commodity cyclical. The 75-point rally he cites happened on what appears to be a single day of algorithmic stacking. That's not a thesis; that's volatility he's mistaking for conviction.

Pendapat Kontra

If AI capex truly remains as aggressive as 2024 suggested, and fabs genuinely cannot scale fast enough, memory could stay tight through 2025-26, sustaining premium valuations and order-flow-driven rallies longer than historical cycles suggest.

SNDK

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▼ Bearish

"Near-term rallies in memory names can be mechanical, but the longer-term upside hinges on sustained, scalable AI-driven demand and capex discipline, which remains uncertain."

The article ties SNDK to a near-term AI memory demand thesis, but SNDK as a standalone ticker largely isn’t traded today, weakening the obvious bullish narrative. It hinges on memory shortages and a momentum-driven rally, yet memory cycles are notoriously volatile and driven by capex, not just demand. AI-driven memory demand is uncertain in scale and pricing power, and if producers accelerate capacity, prices and margins can compress within the next 12–24 months. The piece omits fundamentals like gross margins, balance-sheet health, and competition from MU and WDC. In short, headline momentum masks a murky earnings path.

Pendapat Kontra

Even if AI demand grows, memory pricing may not sustain; capacity additions could outpace demand, squeezing margins. Also SNDK as a standalone name has limited relevance vs traded peers.

memory storage sector / SNDK (legacy)

Debat

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"Aggressive capacity expansion by Chinese NAND producers will likely trigger a supply glut and margin compression by late 2025, invalidating the 15x P/E re-rating thesis."

Grok, your 15x re-rating target for MU and WDC is dangerously optimistic. You’re assuming a permanent structural shift, but you’re ignoring the 'China factor.' YMTC and other domestic players are aggressively expanding NAND capacity to bypass Western sanctions, which will likely flood the market with commoditized supply by late 2025. Even if AI demand holds, this localized supply glut will crush pricing power and compress EBITDA margins far faster than your 2026 oversupply timeline suggests.

Grok ▲ Bullish

Menanggapi Gemini

Tidak setuju dengan: Gemini

"YMTC tech gap preserves pricing power for WDC/MU in premium AI NAND."

Gemini, YMTC's NAND expansion threatens consumer spot market but lags badly in high-density (300+ layers), high-endurance tiers vital for AI data centers—Western firms like WDC/MU hold 80%+ share there. Unflagged upside: Q3 earnings (Oct 2024) likely show sustained 30%+ gross margins if utilization holds, defying your accelerated glut timeline.

Claude ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"High-end NAND moat is real but temporary; Chinese subsidized supply will force Western players into margin compression before Q4 2025, making near-term earnings beats a false signal."

Grok's 80%+ Western share in high-density NAND is real, but the timeline matters enormously. YMTC's 300+ layer nodes lag 2–3 years behind Samsung/SK Hynix, yet Chinese fabs are subsidized and willing to operate at razor margins. By late 2025, even inferior capacity floods spot markets, forcing Western vendors into lower-margin segments. Q3 earnings may show 30%+ margins, but that's a lagging indicator—forward guidance will signal if management sees margin compression ahead. Grok's betting on sustained utilization; I'd watch for capex guidance cuts as the real tell.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"China-driven NAND capacity expansion could rapidly erode margins and derail Grok's 15x re-rating even with near-term strength."

Grok's 15x re-rating hinges on sustained utilization and pricing power, which ignores a looming supply shock from YMTC and other Chinese fabs. Even with Western high-density NAND staying dominant, subsidized, faster-capacity expansions abroad could compress pricing and EBITDA, forcing multiple compression before 2026. If capex guidance softens or utilization dips, the narrative flips quickly. One overlooked risk: China-driven capacity adds a new supply layer that can outpace demand growth and erode margins.