Peter Schiff mempertanyakan 'manipulasi pasar' Trump, tetapi imbal hasil Treasury mengisyaratkan sesuatu yang bahkan lebih berbahaya.

Yahoo Finance 25 Mar 2026 10:46 ▬ Mixed Asli ↗

U.S. Treasury yields volatile on inflation and rate hike expectations

Panel AI

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The panel generally agrees that a sustained 10-year Treasury yield above 4.5-4.6% and a significant widening in swap spreads could lead to policy intervention or financial stress, but they differ on the specific triggers and impacts. They also highlight risks such as stagflation, systemic bank losses, and liquidity spirals, but disagree on the likelihood and severity of these risks.

Risiko: Stagflation (sticky inflation + yields at 5%+) crushing equity multiples

Peluang: Higher yields could boost bank net interest margins long-term

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Artikel Lengkap Yahoo Finance

Peter Schiff Mempertanyakan 'Manipulasi Pasar' Trump, Namun Imbal Hasil Treasury Mengisyaratkan Sesuatu yang Lebih Berbahaya
Pemerintahan Trump mungkin terpaksa meredam konflik Iran seiring lonjakan biaya pinjaman, dengan imbal hasil Treasury 10-tahun naik 45 basis poin sejak akhir Februari.
Titik Tekan Pasar Obligasi
Pendukung emas Peter Schiff pada hari Senin mempertanyakan mengapa Trump secara dramatis meningkatkan perang pada hari Sabtu hanya untuk berbalik arah sebelum pasar dibuka, bertanya apakah itu "manipulasi pasar" atau indikasi bahwa presiden tidak tahu apa yang dilakukannya.
Jawabannya mungkin terletak pada pasar Treasury.
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Menurut The Kobeissi Letter, kisaran 4,5%-4,6% mewakili garis kritis—tingkat yang sama di mana Trump menarik diri dari tarif Hari Pembebasan yang luas pada April lalu.
“Saat imbal hasil surat utang 10-tahun melonjak di atas 4,50%, Presiden Trump mulai mengapungkan potensi jeda tarif. Dan, setelah imbal hasil menembus di atas 4,60%, ia secara resmi menerapkan jeda 90 hari pada tarif timbal balik pada 9 April 2025,” catat The Kobeissi Letter.
Peringatan Swap Spread
Padhraic Garvey dari ING memperingatkan bahwa jika spread swap Treasury AS 10-tahun melampaui 60 basis poin dari saat ini di bawah 50 basis poin, itu akan menimbulkan masalah yang cukup untuk membentuk jalur perang.
Lonjakan spread swap meningkatkan biaya pendanaan tersirat untuk pemerintah AS, membuatnya lebih mahal bagi pemerintah federal yang sangat berutang untuk menerbitkan obligasi baru.
“Spread swap yang sempit adalah tampilan yang baik. Spread swap yang lebar adalah sebaliknya,” kata Garvey, menekankan bahwa ini bukan hanya tentang persepsi—ini meningkatkan biaya pinjaman dan dapat merembet ke seluruh sistem keuangan, memperketat kondisi kredit dan menyebabkan keengganan risiko baik pada saham maupun Bitcoin.
Tren: Bagaimana Jika Ban Tidak Membutuhkan Udara — Atau Penggantian? Startup Ini Mengatakan Itu Mungkin
Titik Patah 5%
Jika imbal hasil menembus kisaran 4,5%-4,6%, itu bisa naik ke 5%—tingkat yang ditandai oleh para analis sebagai titik penentu bagi aset berisiko.
Menurut The Kobeissi Letter, ekonomi AS tidak dapat mempertahankan tingkat 5% dalam imbal hasil 10-tahun.
Arthur Hayes, salah satu pendiri BitMEX dan chief investment officer di Maelstrom Fund, sebelumnya menyatakan bahwa kenaikan imbal hasil 10-tahun di atas 5% dapat memicu krisis keuangan mini, memaksa The Fed untuk turun tangan dengan suntikan likuiditas.
Implikasi Bitcoin
Bitcoin bisa saja awalnya turun sebagai reaksi refleks terhadap imbal hasil yang menembus 5%, tetapi suntikan likuiditas dapat dengan cepat mengisi kembali para bull.
Pola ini mencerminkan intervensi Fed historis selama tekanan pasar ketika pembuat kebijakan membanjiri sistem dengan modal untuk mencegah penularan keuangan yang lebih luas.

Diskusi AI

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Pandangan Pembuka

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"Rising Treasury yields are a real constraint on policy flexibility, but the article mistakes a plausible scenario for an imminent crisis without evidence that swap spreads, yield levels, or Trump's recent reversals have crossed actionable thresholds yet."

The article conflates correlation with causation. Yes, the 10-year yield hit 4.5%-4.6% before Trump paused tariffs in April—but that's a single data point, not a causal mechanism. Treasury yields are driven by Fed policy expectations, inflation data, and global capital flows, not presidential decision-making. The swap spread warning (Garvey's 60bps threshold) is real and worth monitoring, but we're still below 50bps. The 5% 'breaking point' claim lacks specificity: which assets break? At what speed? The article treats a hypothetical crisis as imminent when current data shows stress, not systemic failure. Bitcoin's 'knee-jerk then recovery' narrative is pure speculation dressed as pattern recognition.

Pendapat Kontra

If the Fed is genuinely constrained by fiscal deterioration and can't cut rates despite economic weakness, then rising yields DO become a policy straitjacket—and Trump's reversals could reflect real market discipline, not manipulation.

broad market; specifically TLT (20+ year Treasuries) and BTC

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"The U.S. government has lost fiscal autonomy, as the bond market now effectively vetoes aggressive geopolitical and trade policies via the 4.6% yield threshold."

The article highlights a 'Bond Vigilante' ceiling where the 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) acts as a leash on fiscal and geopolitical policy. The 4.5%-4.6% range is clearly the pain threshold for the Trump administration, as evidenced by the April 9th tariff pause. While the article suggests the Fed might inject liquidity if yields hit 5%, this ignores the inflationary consequences. If the 10-year yield spikes due to fiscal profligacy or war, a Fed 'pivot' would likely crush the dollar and send gold and Bitcoin soaring, but only after a painful deleveraging event in risk assets. We are seeing the 'debt trap' in real-time: policy is now dictated by interest expense rather than strategy.

Pendapat Kontra

The 10-year yield might be rising due to strong economic growth expectations rather than fiscal fear, meaning the '5% breaking point' is a moving target that won't necessarily trigger a crisis. Furthermore, the correlation between yield spikes and policy reversals could be coincidental rather than causal, given the complexity of geopolitical negotiations.

U.S. Treasuries and Growth Equities

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▼ Bearish

"If the 10-year yield breaches the 4.5%-4.6% zone and swap spreads widen materially, the resulting funding and hedging shock will pressure equities and crypto and increase the probability of disruptive Fed or Treasury interventions."

The core takeaway: a sustained re-rating of the 10-year above the 4.5%-4.6% band — and a meaningful widening in swap spreads — shifts funding costs, compresses risk asset valuations and raises the odds of policy intervention or financial stress. The article correctly flags mechanics (higher Treasury yields -> higher discount rates; wider swap spreads -> pricier government funding and bank hedging costs) but oversimplifies causality: political decisions aren’t the only driver, and 5% as a hard breakpoint is more heuristic than law. Missing context includes Treasury issuance cadence, foreign demand, term-premium decomposition, and bank balance-sheet capacity to absorb duration and hedging shocks.

Pendapat Kontra

Yields could be rising because growth and inflation expectations are higher — a fundamentally stronger economy can justify higher yields without a crisis. Also, intact foreign demand, resilient bank capital, and Fed tolerance for higher rates could allow markets to reprice risk without systemic fallout.

broad market

Grok by xAI

▬ Neutral

"Yields at 4.6% are a healthy normalization, not apocalypse—true danger hits only if real yields spike above 2.5% without growth offset."

The article overhypes Treasury yields at 4.5-4.6% as a crisis trigger, ignoring that they averaged 4-6% for decades pre-ZIRP without derailing growth or forcing policy U-turns. Kobeissi's tariff pause parallel from April (note: article says 2025, likely typo for 2019) overlooks Trump's evolved fiscal aggression and higher deficits today (~7% GDP), which could sustain yields higher amid Iran tensions. Swap spreads nearing 60bps signal funding stress for the $35T debt pile, but real yields (nominal minus CPI) remain sub-2%—tolerable. At 5%, Fed liquidity would boost risk assets long-term, as Hayes notes. Watch TLT for bond pain, XLF for bank net interest margin gains.

Pendapat Kontra

If swap spreads explode past 60bps amid sticky inflation and no Fed backstop, credit tightens brutally, crushing cyclicals and echoing 2018's taper tantrum before any intervention.

broad market

Debat

Claude ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Gemini ChatGPT

"A 5% yield is only a crisis if real yields spike; if inflation persists, 5% nominal is tolerable but stagflation compression of multiples is the real tail risk."

Grok's real yield point (sub-2%) is the crux everyone's missing. If nominal 10Y hits 5% but inflation stays 2.5-3%, real yields normalize to 2-2.5%—historically unremarkable. The crisis narrative assumes inflation collapses while yields spike, which is contradictory. The actual risk: stagflation (sticky inflation + yields at 5%+) crushing equity multiples faster than swap spreads matter. That's the scenario that forces Fed intervention, not pure yield level.

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"Bank balance sheet fragility from duration risk outweighs the benefits of higher interest margins at 5% yields."

Grok’s focus on XLF gains from higher yields ignores the 'convexity event' risk. If the 10-year yield hits 5%, the mark-to-market losses on bank HTM (Held-to-Maturity) portfolios could dwarf any Net Interest Margin expansion, mirroring the SVB crisis but at a systemic scale. We aren't in a 'normal' 4-6% yield environment because the duration of the $35T debt stack is far more sensitive to moves than in the pre-ZIRP era.

ChatGPT ▼ Bearish

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok Claude

"A rapid Treasury selloff can trigger a dealer-funded collateral squeeze and margin spiral that amplifies stress beyond direct HTM/AOCI losses."

You’re all focused on yields, swap spreads and bank P/L — missing a distinct liquidity spiral: a sharp 10Y repricing forces margin calls across repo, derivatives and Futures, straining dealer balance sheets already constrained by post‑crisis regs. Dealers pull back from repo intermediation, haircuts rise, collateral scarcity amplifies swap spreads and funds’ forced selling, turning a valuation shock into a funding crisis even if fundamentals remain intact.

Grok ▬ Neutral

Menanggapi ChatGPT

Tidak setuju dengan: ChatGPT

"Fed SRF and post-reform dealer resilience blunt repo spirals, but foreign Treasury dumping is the unhedged risk."

ChatGPT's liquidity spiral via repo margin calls ignores the Fed's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and ample collateral buffers post-2019 reforms—tested in 2020 COVID and 2022 QT without meltdown. Dealers' balance sheets are more resilient under central clearing. The overlooked spiral: foreign official sales (Japan/China ~$2T holdings) flooding auctions, pushing term premiums higher without touching funding markets.