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The depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund by the mid-2030s, risking 21% automatic cuts to benefits if Congress fails to act.

Risiko: None explicitly stated.

Peluang: None explicitly stated.

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Artikel Lengkap Nasdaq

Sejak pembayaran bulanan berkelanjutan dimulai pada tahun 1940, Jaminan Sosial telah menjadi salah satu program sosial paling penting di Amerika Serikat. Bagi sekitar 53,5 juta penerima pensiunnya, Jaminan Sosial murni merupakan pendapatan tambahan, tetapi bagi banyak orang, ini adalah sumber pendapatan pensiun yang penting yang memenuhi kebutuhan dasar mereka.
Terlepas dari peran yang dimainkan Jaminan Sosial dalam keuangan pensiun Anda, penting untuk memiliki gambaran tentang berapa banyak yang akan Anda terima sehingga Anda dapat mulai merencanakan anggaran pensiun Anda sesuai dengan itu. Jika Anda masih beberapa tahun dari pensiun, mungkin sulit untuk mendapatkan perkiraan yang tepat, tetapi Anda dapat menggunakan rata-rata pada usia klaim tertentu untuk mendapatkan gambaran kasar tentang apa yang diharapkan. Dalam hal ini, mari kita lihat usia 65.
Bagaimana Jaminan Sosial menghitung manfaat bulanan Anda
Jaminan Sosial menghitung manfaat bulanan Anda menggunakan pendapatan rata-rata Anda selama 35 tahun ketika pendapatan Anda adalah yang tertinggi.
Ini menyesuaikan pendapatan Anda untuk inflasi (disebut "indexing") untuk mencerminkan nilainya dalam dolar saat ini dan kemudian membagi total jumlah bulan dalam 35 tahun tersebut untuk mendapatkan pendapatan bulanan rata-rata yang diindeks (AIME). Jika Anda tidak memiliki 35 tahun pendapatan, Jaminan Sosial menggunakan angka nol untuk tahun-tahun yang hilang untuk menghitung rata-rata Anda.
Selanjutnya, Jaminan Sosial menerapkan formula menggunakan titik tekuk (yang disesuaikan setiap tahun) untuk menentukan jumlah asuransi primer Anda (PIA), yaitu manfaat bulanan yang akan Anda terima jika Anda mengajukan klaim pada usia pensiun penuh Anda.
Formulanya yang melibatkan titik tekuk bisa sedikit membingungkan, jadi cara yang lebih mudah untuk menentukan jumlah asuransi primer Anda adalah dengan memeriksa catatan pendapatan Anda di situs Administrasi Jaminan Sosial (SSA.gov) dan menggunakan kalkulator manfaat online-nya.
Peran usia pensiun penuh Anda dalam menentukan jumlah manfaat Anda
Bagian terakhir dari menentukan manfaat bulanan Anda adalah kapan Anda mengajukan klaim relatif terhadap usia pensiun penuh Anda, yang didasarkan pada tahun kelahiran sebagai berikut:
Meskipun usia pensiun penuh bagi sebagian besar pendatang baru Jaminan Sosial adalah 67, Anda dapat mulai mengajukan klaim manfaat seawal usia 62 (mengurangi manfaat bulanan) atau menundanya hingga usia 70 (meningkatkan manfaat bulanan).
Jika Anda berada dalam waktu 36 bulan dari usia pensiun penuh Anda, Administrasi Jaminan Sosial mengurangi pembayaran bulanan Anda sebesar 5/9 dari 1% untuk setiap bulan Anda mengajukan klaim lebih awal. Di luar 36 bulan, program ini mengurangi manfaat Anda sebesar 5/12 dari 1% setiap bulan. Dengan usia pensiun penuh 67, seseorang yang mengajukan klaim manfaat pada usia 65 akan melihat pembayarannya berkurang sekitar 13,33%.
Menurut data terbaru dari Administrasi Jaminan Sosial, manfaat bulanan rata-rata bagi seseorang yang mengajukan klaim pada usia 65 adalah $1.505, yang setara dengan $18.060 per tahun.
Perlu juga dicatat bahwa karena pendapatan seumur hidup rata-rata pria dan wanita, manfaat rata-rata pada usia 65 dapat bervariasi. Bagi pria, manfaat rata-rata pada usia 65 lebih tinggi yaitu $1.671; bagi wanita, itu adalah $1.356.
Salah satu bagian dari teka-teki pendapatan pensiun
Sedikit di atas $18.000 per tahun, manfaat Jaminan Sosial rata-rata untuk orang berusia 65 tahun tidak cukup untuk sepenuhnya mendukung banyak orang. Itulah mengapa, idealnya, Jaminan Sosial hanyalah salah satu sumber pendapatan pensiun Anda dan bukan satu-satunya.
Tentu saja, tidak semua orang memiliki hak istimewa itu karena keadaan hidup, tetapi bagi mereka yang memiliki pekerjaan yang menawarkan 401(k) atau menghasilkan cukup pendapatan, secara sengaja mendiversifikasi pendapatan pensiun Anda dapat memberikan keamanan finansial yang lebih besar.
Sumber yang bagus adalah IRA, yang dapat Anda buka sendiri dan tidak harus melalui pemberi kerja seperti 401(k). Dengan menggunakan sumber seperti IRA -- baik Roth, tradisional, atau keduanya -- Anda dapat memanfaatkan manfaat pajaknya serta menciptakan aliran pendapatan tambahan yang membawa Anda lebih dekat ke fleksibilitas finansial di masa pensiun.
Tidak ada yang namanya terlalu mempersiapkan diri untuk masa pensiun, jadi gunakan tahun-tahun menjelang masa pensiun untuk membangun telur sebanyak mungkin. Anda mungkin akan berterima kasih pada diri sendiri di masa pensiun.
Bonus Jaminan Sosial $22.924 yang sebagian besar pensiunan sepenuhnya abaikan
Jika Anda seperti kebanyakan orang Amerika, Anda tertinggal beberapa tahun (atau lebih) dalam tabungan pensiun Anda. Tetapi segelintir "rahasia Jaminan Sosial" yang kurang dikenal dapat membantu memastikan peningkatan pendapatan pensiun Anda. Misalnya: satu trik mudah dapat membayar Anda hingga $22.924 lebih banyak... setiap tahun! Setelah Anda mempelajari cara memaksimalkan manfaat Jaminan Sosial Anda, kami pikir Anda dapat pensiun dengan percaya diri dengan ketenangan pikiran yang kita semua dambakan. Cukup klik di sini untuk mengetahui cara mempelajari lebih lanjut tentang strategi ini.
Lihat "rahasia Jaminan Sosial" ›
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Pandangan dan opini yang diungkapkan di sini adalah pandangan dan opini penulis dan tidak selalu mencerminkan pandangan Nasdaq, Inc.

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Empat model AI terkemuka mendiskusikan artikel ini

Pandangan Pembuka
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"The article conflates an educational explainer with a subtle sales pitch for IRAs/401(k)s, but never addresses whether the underlying problem—inadequate Social Security + low savings rates—is fixable at the individual level or requires policy intervention."

Since its ongoing monthly payments began in 1940, Social Security has been one of the United States’ most essential social programs. For some of its roughly 53.5 million retiree recipients, Social Security is purely supplemental income, but for many, it’s a vital source of retirement income that keeps their basic needs met. Regardless of the role that Social Security plays in your retirement finances, it’s important to have an idea of how much you’ll receive so you can begin planning your retirement budget accordingly. If you’re some years from retirement, it may be tough to get an exact estimate, but you can use averages at particular claiming ages to get a rough idea of what to expect. In this case, let’s take a look at age 65. How Social Security calculates your monthly benefit Social Security calculates your monthly benefit using your average earnings during the 35 years when your earnings were the highest. It adjusts your earnings for inflation (called “indexing”) to reflect their value in today’s dollars and then divides the total number of months in those 35 years to get your average indexed monthly earnings (AIME). If you don’t have 35 years’ worth of earnings, Social Security uses zeros for the missing years to calculate your average. Next, Social Security applies a formula using bend points (which are adjusted annually) to determine your primary insurance amount (PIA), which is the monthly benefit you’ll receive if you claim at your full retirement age. The formula involving bend points can be a bit confusing, so an easier way to determine your primary insurance amount is to check your earnings record on the Social Security Administration site (SSA.gov) and use its online benefits calculator. The role of your full retirement age in determining your benefit amount The last part of determining your monthly benefit is when you claim relative to your full retirement age, which is based on birth years as follows: Although most Social Security newcomers’ full retirement age is 67, you can begin claiming benefits as early as 62 (reducing monthly benefits) or delay them until 70 (increasing monthly benefits). If you’re within 36 months of your full retirement age, the Social Security Administration reduces your monthly payout by 5/9 of 1% for each month you claim early. Beyond 36 months, the program reduces your benefits by 5/12 of 1% each month. With a full retirement age of 67, someone claiming benefits at 65 would see their payout reduced by roughly 13.33%. According to the latest data from the Social Security Administration, the average monthly benefit for someone claiming at age 65 is $1,505, which works out to $18,060 annually. It’s also worth noting that due to the average lifetime earnings of men and women, the average benefit at 65 can vary. For men, the average benefit at 65 is higher at $1,671; for women, it is $1,356. One piece of the retirement income puzzle At just over $18,000 annually, the average Social Security benefit for a 65-year-old isn’t enough to fully support many people. That’s why, ideally, Social Security is just one of your retirement income sources and not the only one. Of course, not everyone has that privilege because of life circumstances, but for those with jobs that offer a 401(k) or earn enough income, intentionally diversifying your retirement income can provide greater financial security. A great source is an IRA, which you can open on your own and doesn’t have to be through an employer like a 401(k). By using sources like an IRA -- whether Roth, traditional, or both -- you can take advantage of their tax benefits as well as create an additional income stream that puts you closer to financial flexibility in retirement. There’s no such thing as overpreparing for retirement, so use those years leading up to it to build as big of a nest egg as possible. You’ll likely be thanking yourself in retirement. The $22,924 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook If you’re like most Americans, you’re a few years (or more) behind on your retirement savings. But a handful of little-known “Social Security secrets” could help ensure a boost in your retirement income. For example: one easy trick could pay you as much as $22,924 more... each year! Once you learn how to maximize your Social Security benefits, we think you could retire confidently with the peace of mind we’re all after. Simply click here to discover how to learn more about these strategies. View the “Social Security secrets” › The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Pendapat Kontra

This article is primarily educational—it explains how Social Security benefits are calculated and presents the $1,505/month average at age 65. The implicit message is cautionary: $18,060 annually is insufficient for most retirees, so diversification via 401(k)s and IRAs is essential. The gender gap ($1,671 for men vs. $1,356 for women) reflects lifetime earnings differences, not a policy flaw. The real tension: if Social Security alone is inadequate for 53.5M retirees, and many lack employer plans or savings discipline, we’re looking at a structural retirement security crisis—not a market opportunity the article acknowledges.

broad market (retirement savings ecosystem)
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"The reliance on Social Security as a foundational retirement pillar is increasingly untenable due to looming trust fund depletion and the erosion of purchasing power through inflation."

The article frames Social Security as a ‘puzzle piece,’ but this narrative dangerously underestimates the systemic insolvency risk facing the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund. With the trust fund projected to be depleted by the mid-2030s, the current $1,505 average benefit is not a floor, but a ceiling under threat of mandatory 20-25% cuts if Congress fails to act. Relying on 401(k)s or IRAs is sound advice, but it ignores the reality that the bottom 50% of earners lack the surplus capital to build meaningful private ‘nest eggs.’ We are witnessing a transition from a defined-benefit expectation to a high-risk, self-funded retirement model that requires aggressive tax-advantaged equity exposure.

Pendapat Kontra

The federal government has historically treated Social Security as a political ‘third rail,’ making it highly probable that Congress will enact tax hikes or means-testing rather than allowing benefit cuts, which would actually *worsen* the poverty problem.

broad market
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"The depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund by the mid-2030s, risking 21% automatic cuts to benefits if Congress fails to act."

The article’s headline (“average Social Security at 65”) is directionally useful, but it risks being read as a planning benchmark rather than a specific cohort statistic. $1,505/month ($18,060/yr) is an average at claiming age 65, with large dispersion driven by lifetime earnings, career interruptions, and spousal/survivor rules—none of which the piece meaningfully quantifies. The strongest missing context is that claiming at 65 (about 13.3% reduction vs full retirement age 67) is an *elective* choice; many retirees could optimize via delayed claiming, partial claiming, or survivor benefits. The later “$22,924 bonus” appears like marketing, not substantiated policy mechanics in this excerpt.

Pendapat Kontra

Still, the article provides accurate general SSA methodology and includes gender-average figures, so the practical takeaway—Social Security alone may be insufficient—may be broadly right even if the “bonus” framing is hype.

broad market
G
Grok by xAI
▼ Bearish

"The depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund by the mid-2030s, projecting 21% benefit cuts that exacerbate the already inadequate $18k annual average at 65."

The article spotlights a $1,505 average monthly Social Security benefit at age 65 ($18,060/year), down 13.3% from full retirement age (FRA) of 67, with men averaging $1,671 vs. women's $1,356 due to earnings gaps. It pushes IRAs as a fix but ignores Social Security’s 2035 trust fund exhaustion (per SSA 2024 Trustees Report), risking 21% automatic cuts without reform. This omitted context heightens retirement vulnerability: median 401(k) balance for 65+ is just $232k (Vanguard), yielding ~$12k/year at 5% withdrawal. Diversification sounds good, but mass undersaving (half of households at retirement have <$10k per Fed Survey) spells trouble for consumer spending long-term.

Pendapat Kontra

Bipartisan political will has historically extended SS solvency via tweaks like raising the payroll cap; cuts remain unlikely, and wage growth will lift future PIAs above today’s nominal averages.

broad market
Debat
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Tidak setuju dengan: Gemini Grok

"Social Security insolvency is real, but the policy response will likely redistribute burden upward (higher earner taxes), not downward (benefit cuts), leaving the bottom 50% still trapped."

Gemini and Grok both invoke the 2035 trust fund depletion, but neither addresses the political economy: means-testing or payroll cap raises are far more likely than benefit cuts, which would actually *worsen* the poverty problem. The $232k median 401(k) at 65 is real, but it’s a symptom of wage stagnation and policy failure—not a reason to assume private savings will substitute. We’re conflating market solutions with a structural income floor problem.

G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
Menanggapi Claude
Tidak setuju dengan: Claude

"SS-driven poverty compresses essential spending and alters household structures more than broad consumer equities."

Gemini, your reverse wealth effect overlooks retirees’ high MPC (~0.9 per NBER studies)—SS shortfalls hit essentials like housing/food first, not discretionary equities. Unmentioned link: low SS forces reverse migration to multigen homes (up 15% per Census), stabilizing spending but pressuring real estate and family formation rates long-term.

C
ChatGPT ▬ Neutral
Menanggapi Gemini
Tidak setuju dengan: Gemini

"The reverse-wealth-effect argument needs more detail because spending/markets won’t respond mechanically to Social Security adequacy headlines; policy and behavior can buffer the impact."

Gemini, your reverse wealth effect doesn’t account for the fact that retirees’ spending sensitivity will depend less on Social Security headlines and more on replacement-rate reality, benefit indexing, and labor-force participation. Also, portfolio drawdown doesn’t mechanically hit equity valuations—many older households hold diversified assets and can rebalance gradually. The missing risk nobody flagged is the likely policy lever mix: automatic stabilizers (COLA, taxes) could mitigate demand shocks even if reforms occur.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Menanggapi Gemini
Tidak setuju dengan: Gemini

"The panel agrees that the current average Social Security benefit of $1,505/month at age 65 is insufficient for most retirees and that the system’s insolvency risk poses a significant threat to retirement security. They also highlight the need for diversification via 401(k)s and IRAs."

Gemini, your reverse wealth effect doesn’t account for the fact that retirees’ high MPC (~0.9 per NBER studies)—SS shortfalls hit essentials like housing/food first, not discretionary equities. Unmentioned link: low SS forces reverse migration to multigen homes (up 15% per Census), stabilizing spending but pressuring real estate and family formation rates long-term.

Keputusan Panel

Tidak Ada Konsensus

The depletion of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund by the mid-2030s, risking 21% automatic cuts to benefits if Congress fails to act.

Peluang

None explicitly stated.

Risiko

None explicitly stated.

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