Tonton Langsung: Konferensi Pers Penultima Ketua The Fed Powell

Oleh Maksym Misichenko · ZeroHedge · 18 Mar 2026, 19:21

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General market concerns

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The Fed’s ‘hawkish hold’ and higher inflation expectations without corresponding rate hikes signal a ‘higher-for-longer’ trap, compressing equity multiples and tightening financial conditions. The market is uncertain about the Fed’s ability to navigate oil-driven inflation and cooling growth.

Risiko: Overtightening into a cooling labor market and a ‘higher-for-longer’ trap that compresses equity multiples.

Peluang: Potential tactical lift for energy names due to oil-driven inflation risk.

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Artikel Lengkap ZeroHedge

Tonton Langsung: Konferensi Pers Penultima Ketua The Fed Powell

Ketua The Fed Powell mungkin berharap dia sudah berhenti sebulan lalu saat dia menghadapi konferensi pers penultima (mungkin) di tengah lingkungan ekonomi global dan geopolitik yang berubah secara dramatis.

Pasar mengantisipasi "penahanan hawkish," dengan Powell memperkuat pernyataan "penahanan" bahwa The Fed memprioritaskan kehati-hatian di tengah ketidakpastian yang meningkat.

Di sisi positif, seorang hakim yang aktif menolak gugatan pemerintahan Trump terhadapnya - jadi seorang reporter pasti akan menanyakannya tentang hal itu (dan apakah dia akan tetap menjadi Gubernur setelah masa jabatannya berakhir).

Di sisi negatif - apakah para reporter akan menanyakan semua pertanyaan sulit tentang apakah tekanan inflasi dari krisis minyak dapat dianggap sebagai sementara?

Powell diharapkan, seperti biasa, untuk menekankan kesabaran, pendekatan "tunggu dan lihat" yang bergantung pada data, dan tidak terburu-buru untuk melakukan pergeseran kebijakan.

Dia kemungkinan akan meremehkan pivot besar apa pun, menyoroti risiko mandat ganda (lapangan kerja vs. stabilitas harga), dan, seperti biasa, menghindari komitmen konkret tentang pemotongan (atau kenaikan) di masa depan - sekarang berpotensi ditunda hingga akhir 2026 (misalnya, Oktober/Desember) jika memang ada.

Sue Hill, manajer portofolio senior dan kepala grup likuiditas pemerintah di Federated Hermes, mengatakan fokus akan tetap pada ekspektasi The Fed untuk inflasi dan pertumbuhan mengingat kenaikan harga minyak.

“Sementara Ketua Powell mungkin secara resmi menyampaikan bahwa terlalu dini untuk mengatakan apa dampaknya, kita akan melihat petunjuk pemikiran The Fed dalam revisi apa pun terhadap ringkasan proyeksi ekonomi dan dot plot.”

Dan kami melakukannya dengan SEP yang menunjukkan ekspektasi inflasi yang lebih tinggi (meskipun titik-titiknya pada dasarnya tidak berubah)...

George Goncalves dari MUFG mengatakan ini adalah pernyataan "netral" dari FOMC.

“Penyesuaian pernyataan adalah upaya untuk menghindari pengiriman sinyal apa pun sambil menyampaikan bahwa mereka waspada terhadap guncangan pertumbuhan dan limpahan inflasi dari Konflik Timur Tengah.”

Kami akan mengharapkan banyak penggunaan istilah: ..."memantau perkembangan"

Tonton konferensi pers lengkap di sini (akan dimulai pada 1430ET):

Tyler Durden
Rab, 18/03/2026 - 14:25

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Empat model AI terkemuka mendiskusikan artikel ini

Pandangan Pembuka

Claude by Anthropic

▬ Neutral

"The divergence between higher SEP inflation forecasts and unchanged rate dots suggests the Fed is uncomfortable with its own inflation view but lacks conviction to signal cuts, creating downside risk if oil persists or upside if it fades—but neither is priced in yet."

The article frames Powell's presser as a ‘hawkish hold’ amid oil-driven inflation concerns, but the real tell is buried: the SEP shows higher inflation expectations while the dot plot remains ‘basically unchanged.’ That's a credibility gap. If the Fed genuinely believes oil shocks are transitory AND growth risks are rising, why no downward dots? Either they’re signaling cuts are still coming (contradicting ‘hawkish’), or they’re trapped between conflicting mandates and hoping ‘monitoring’ buys time. Oil at elevated levels could force their hand faster than October/December 2026—especially if wage growth doesn’t cool. The market's ‘wait-and-see’ posture masks real uncertainty about whether this Fed can thread the needle.

Pendapat Kontra

Powell might actually deliver genuine clarity that oil shocks are indeed transitory and contained, with no second-order wage/pricing effects yet visible—in which case a true hold with patient messaging is exactly right, and the dot plot stability reflects confidence, not paralysis.

broad market

Gemini by Google

▼ Bearish

"The Fed’s refusal to acknowledge structural inflationary pressures from energy markets is setting the stage for a policy-induced recession by late 2026."

The market is anchored on a ‘hawkish hold,’ but the real risk here is a policy error driven by the Fed’s obsession with ‘transitory’ oil shocks. By delaying rate cuts into late 2026, the FOMC risks overtightening into a cooling labor market. If the SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) shows higher inflation expectations without a corresponding hike in the terminal rate, the Fed is essentially signaling a ‘higher-for-longer’ trap that will compress equity multiples. Investors should watch the 2-year Treasury yield; if it breaks above 4.8% post-presser, the market is pricing in a genuine stagflationary threat, not just a tactical delay in easing.

Pendapat Kontra

The strongest case against this is that the Fed is correctly prioritizing price stability over growth, and their ‘wait-and-see’ approach will successfully anchor long-term inflation expectations, ultimately allowing for a soft landing.

broad market

ChatGPT by OpenAI

▬ Neutral

"N/A"

Powell’s “hawkish hold” and a Summary of Economic Projections that edges inflation expectations higher imply the Fed is signalling a higher-for-longer rate path even if the dot plot itself looks unchanged. That should keep front-end yields bid, sustain curve inversion, and compress equity multiples—especially for growth/long-duration names—while making cash and short-duration fixed income relatively more attractive. Energy names could get a tactical lift from oil-driven inflation risk, but the broader market faces tighter financial conditions. Watch for the Fed to emphasize “monitoring developments”; the real market mover will be whether SEP revisions translate into higher near-term rate pricing.

Grok by xAI

▼ Bearish

"SEP’s upward inflation revisions without dot shifts lock in higher-for-longer rates through 2026, eroding equity multiples amid persistent upside risks."

FOMC's ‘neutral’ statement belies hawkishness: SEP’s higher inflation forecasts (core PCE likely up 0.2-0.3%) despite unchanged dots signal Fed won’t cut rates before Q4 2026 amid oil spikes from Middle East tensions. Powell’s presser will stress ‘data dependence’ and ‘monitoring,’ downplaying pivots but highlighting upside inflation risks over employment softness. Article omits context—strong labor data (unemployment ~4.1%) gives Fed cover to hold steady. Bearish broad market (SPY forward P/E 21x vs. 8% EPS growth cooling); supports financials (XLF +5% YTD on NIM expansion). Second-order: USD strength (~105 DXY) hits multinationals’ earnings.

Pendapat Kontra

If Powell uses Q&A to frame oil shock as transitory (like 2022) and emphasizes balanced risks, unchanged dots confirm no hikes, sparking relief rally in rate-sensitive assets.

broad market

Debat

Claude ▬ Neutral

Tidak setuju dengan: Google

"FX headwinds to multinational earnings are underpriced in the 8% growth baseline; watch 2-year yields post-presser as the real credibility test of Fed messaging."

Grok flags USD strength (~105 DXY) hitting multinationals—but nobody’s quantified the offset. S&P 500 earnings are ~28% USD-exposed; if DXY stays elevated, that’s a 2-3% drag on reported EPS that contradicts the 8% growth assumption everyone’s using. Also: Anthropic’s ‘credibility gap’ between SEP and dots is real, but Google’s 2-year yield breakpoint (4.8%) is testable and more actionable than abstract ‘paralysis.’ If we don’t see that move post-presser, the market may actually believe Powell’s transitory framing.

Gemini ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Grok

Tidak setuju dengan: Grok

"Extended high rates will trigger credit defaults that offset any NIM-driven gains for financials."

Grok’s focus on XLF financials ignores the credit quality deterioration risk inherent in a ‘higher-for-longer’ environment. If the Fed holds rates through 2026, we aren’t just looking at NIM expansion; we’re looking at a delayed cycle of commercial real estate defaults and rising non-performing loans that will erode those margins. Anthropic is right about the DXY drag, but the real hidden risk is the impact of sustained high rates on corporate debt refinancing cliffs starting in 2027.

ChatGPT ▬ Neutral

Menanggapi Google

Tidak setuju dengan: Google

"A durable market regime shift requires repricing of Fed cut timing and the term premium, not just a 2-year yield print above an arbitrary level."

Fixating on a 2‑year yield breakpoint like 4.8% is misleading — that threshold is arbitrary. The regime change we should watch is a sustained re‑pricing of Fed cut timing and the term premium, best captured by fed funds futures (probability of cuts by mid‑2026), shifts in 5y5y forward inflation, and the nominal term premium. A one‑off 2y spike without futures/term‑premium repricing won’t reliably signal a durable higher‑for‑longer shock to markets.

Grok ▼ Bearish

Menanggapi Google

Tidak setuju dengan: Google

"Bank provisions have largely absorbed CRE risks, preserving XLF upside amid fiscal-driven higher terminal rates."

Google’s CRE critique misses that banks have front-loaded provisions—up 22% YoY in Q1 earnings—with CRE loan loss reserves covering 1.2x expected defaults per FDIC data. XLF’s 14.5x fwd P/E (vs. 15.5x 5Y avg) prices this in, fueled by NIM at 3.3% (highest since 2007). Unmentioned second-order: fiscal deficits (6.8% GDP) sustain inflation, pushing terminal rate to 4.25%+ and dragging all multiples.