Disney Is Down 25%, but the Worst Might Not Be Over

Disney (DIS) has fallen 26% from its summer peak to $92 per share as linear TV erosion, rising content costs, softer international park visitation, and a collapsed $1B partnership with OpenAI on AI-generated video content weigh on the business under new CEO Josh D’Amaro.
Structural headwinds including cord-cutting, macro sensitivity in parks, and unpredictable content pipelines will persist for years, leaving near-term earnings vulnerable to execution risks despite long-term analyst optimism grounded in parks strength and streaming profitability.
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Last summer, Disney (NYSE:DIS) appeared poised for a comeback. The shares had climbed toward their 52-week high around $125 per share as streaming profits improved and parks attendance rebounded. Yet the rally fizzled. Since then, DIS has steadily declined and now trades around $92. It sits roughly 26% below that summer peak. The drop accelerated sharply in the past week alone, with the stock falling about 7%.
Many headwinds now confront the company and its new CEO, Josh D’Amaro, who officially took the reins on March 18. Linear TV erosion, rising content costs, and softer international park visitation have all weighed on results for months. These pressures have made the hoped-for turnaround suddenly far harder to deliver. And despite how far the shares have already fallen, there is still plenty of room for them to drop more.
Older Headwinds That Predated the New CEO
Before D’Amaro’s arrival, Disney faced structural challenges that have dogged the stock for years. The biggest drag remains the accelerating decline of linear television. Networks such as ABC and ESPN continue to lose subscribers and ad revenue at a faster pace than expected. Sports programming costs keep climbing, squeezing margins in the Entertainment segment. Recent quarters showed operating income in this division dropping sharply -- sometimes by more than 30% -- despite overall revenue stability.
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Parks & Experiences, Disney’s most reliable profit engine, also hit headwinds. International visitation has softened amid higher travel costs, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty. The company has guided to only modest operating-income growth in the segment, tempering earlier optimism. Meanwhile, the streaming business, while turning profitable, still faces high programming expenses and intense competition. Live-action remakes and theatrical releases have delivered mixed to poor results, leaving investors wary of sustained earnings momentum.
These issues created a slow bleed that pushed the stock lower even before leadership changed. High capital spending on parks, tech bets, and content left little cushion when consumer spending on travel and entertainment cooled. Valuation multiples contracted as Wall Street questioned whether Disney could consistently grow earnings amid these secular shifts.
CEO's Rocky First Week
D’Amaro, a longtime parks and experiences executive, stepped into the top job promising a more fan-connected, tech-forward Disney. His first week on the job offered little breathing room. Three unrelated setbacks erupted almost simultaneously, each undermining key growth initiatives he had championed.
First, a planned $1 billion, multi-year partnership with OpenAI collapsed. The deal called for AI-generated short-form videos featuring hundreds of Disney characters on Disney+. OpenAI, though, abruptly shut down its Sora video tool to cut costs ahead of a possible IPO, blindsiding Disney executives.
Second, Epic Games -- where Disney holds a roughly 9% stake after a $1.5 billion investment -- announced 1,000 layoffs. New Fortnite updates failed to lift engagement, clouding the metaverse and gaming roadmap D’Amaro had personally backed by joining Epic’s board as an observer.
Third, ABC canceled an already-filmed season of The Bachelorette after domestic-violence allegations surfaced against the lead. The move proved costly and embarrassing for the network side of the business.
These blows, totaling potential exposure in the billions, arrived right as investors looked for early signs that D’Amaro could stabilize the ship. Instead, they amplified doubts and fueled the latest leg lower.
Why These Problems May Linger
None of these issues appears likely to be resolved quickly. Linear TV’s structural decline will continue for years; cord-cutting shows no signs of slowing. Parks face ongoing macro sensitivity -- fuel prices, overseas travel caution, and regional conflicts could keep international attendance uneven. The tech partnerships that faltered were long-term bets; rebuilding similar alliances or pivoting will take time and capital. Content pipelines remain expensive and unpredictable. Analyst models already bake in cautious guidance, with several noting that fiscal 2026 profits will be back-half weighted and vulnerable to execution slips.
Wall Street remains broadly constructive but hardly enthusiastic about the near term. The consensus rating is Moderate Buy, with the average 12-month price target sitting near $134 -- implying roughly 45% upside from current levels. Guggenheim, however, lowered its target to $115 after the recent setbacks, citing execution risks under new leadership. Overall, analysts see Disney as undervalued on a long-term basis, but flag near-term volatility as D’Amaro proves himself.
Key Takeaway
Disney remains a financially solid company with iconic brands, a strong balance sheet, and durable cash flows. It is the kind of blue-chip name many investors can reliably hold for a lifetime. But that does not mean new buyers should rush in today. Market sentiment still lacks clear confidence that D’Amaro is the executive best equipped to fight these fires.
There will come a time to buy Disney stock. That moment, however, is not today. Patient investors should wait for clearer evidence that the new CEO can stabilize the core business and restore growth momentum before stepping back into the Magic Kingdom.
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