Dow, 호르무즈 해협 재개 가능성에 시장 환호하며 상승 마감

Stocks rallied to close higher on Monday, as easing geopolitical tensions and a sharp drop in oil prices lifted investor sentiment across the board.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 631 points, or 1.4%, to 46,208, while the S&P 500 gained 1.2% to finish at 6,581. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.4% to 21,947, and the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.3% jump.
Markets got a boost after Donald Trump said he would postpone planned military strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure following what he described as “very good and productive” talks with Tehran. The comments helped calm fears that had escalated over the weekend, when Trump warned of potential action if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
Oil prices tumbled roughly 10% on the prospect of de-escalation and a possible reopening of the critical shipping route, removing a key overhang for equities. Trump later added that the Strait could reopen soon “if this works,” referring to ongoing negotiations.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin rallied about 3% to hover near $71,000, tracking the broader risk-on mood.
There were no major earnings reports after the close, but investors are gearing up for a busy stretch ahead, with results due later this week from GameStop, PDD Holdings, Paychex, Chewy, and Carnival Corporation.
Zenith Energy Ltd (LSE:ZEN, TSX-V:ZEE) shares rose after announcing a fully financed 7 MW solar project in southern Italy set to begin construction in July 2026.
Empire Metals Ltd (AIM:EEE, OTCQX:EPMLF) highlighted a major milestone at its Pitfield project with a large maiden titanium resource and plans to focus on advancing toward production.
Palantir Technologies’ Maven Smart System has been designated a US Department of Defense “program of record,” securing long-term funding and broader military deployment of its AI platform.
Nvidia is partnering with Emerald AI and major US energy firms to develop “AI factories” that integrate data center infrastructure with power grids to speed deployment and enhance grid reliability.
Insmed shares rose after reporting positive Phase 3b trial results for ARIKAYCE in treating Mycobacterium avium complex lung infection.
Synopsys activist investor Elliott has built a multibillion-dollar stake and plans to push for improved monetization of its software and services portfolio.
1:30pm: Oil pullback boosts stocks
Consumer, transport and industrial sectors could see a sharp rebound if oil prices retreat, according to Nigel Green, as markets react to signs of easing geopolitical tensions.
The CEO of deVere Group said improving prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran—signaled by comments from Donald Trump—have already triggered volatility in energy markets. Crude prices, which surged above $110 a barrel amid threats to supply routes, have shown sensitivity to any signs of de-escalation.
“Oil has been the dominant macro driver of the past few weeks," Green commented. "It has pushed inflation expectations higher, weighed on equities, and tightened financial conditions. If that pressure begins to ease, the rebound in certain parts of the market could be swift and powerful.”
He noted that transport, consumer and industrial sectors stand to benefit most from lower energy costs, though warned that geopolitical uncertainty continues to drive sharp market swings.
12:10pm: Sigh of relief
"Stock markets breathe a sigh of relief as US President Trump announces a five-day moratorium on planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure", says Axel Rudolph, Chief Technical Analyst at investing and trading platform IG.
"A Truth Social post by US President Trump citing "very good and productive" discussions between the US and Iran - refuted by Iran's foreign minister - and a five-day halt on planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure provoked a volte face in the oil price, yields, the greenback, precious metals and stock indices. An around 10% fall in the oil price led to a drop in yields, a softer US dollar and a sharp recovery in stock markets."
11:00am: Week ahead
Wall Street heads into the new week with oil driving the narrative, and everything else is reacting to it.
Crude prices are expected to remain the dominant force, as investors watch developments in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the risk of further supply disruptions. With Brent already pushing above $113 a barrel, the stakes for markets are rising quickly.
“The oil price continues to set the tone for financial markets,” said Kathleen Brooks, warning that escalating tensions could make this a “pivotal week” for both geopolitics and asset prices.
Analysts say the implications go well beyond oil. A prolonged supply shock, especially with LNG exports from Qatar already disrupted, could ripple through global growth, inflation, and corporate earnings expectations.
Against this backdrop, Federal Reserve commentary could carry extra weight. Policymakers including Vice Chair Michael Barr and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are scheduled to speak, with investors listening closely for any shift in tone.
The economic calendar is relatively quiet, but not irrelevant. On the corporate side, earnings from companies like GameStop, PDD Holdings, Paychex, Chewy, and Carnival Corporation could generate stock-specific moves.
10:00am: Nasdaq opens higher, travel and tech names in lead
US stocks opened sharply higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.8%, the S&P 500 gaining 1.7% and the Nasdaq rising 2.0% in early trade.
Gains were led by travel and tech names, with Norwegian Cruise Line up 6.4%, Carnival gaining 6.0% and Royal Caribbean rising 5.1%, while Palantir climbed 5.3% and Ciena added 5.4%.
A newswire report suggested Palantir’s Maven system has been designated a “program of record” by the US Department of Defense, marking a shift from earlier pilot programs and short-term contracts to a standardized capability expected to be deployed across the US armed forces.
8.15am: Dow and Nasdaq set to start higher on Trump Iran talks claim
Wall Street stocks are expected to start the week sharply higher after President Donald Trump claimed the US and Iran had held productive talks toward ending the conflict in the Middle East, even as Tehran flatly denied any contact had taken place.
Dow Jones futures were up 1.6%, S&P 500 futures gained 1.5% and Nasdaq futures 1.45%, reversing out of the red into the green after Trump's posted on Truth Social that he had instructed the Department of War to "postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions".
Trump said the discussions, which he described as "in depth, detailed, and constructive," would continue throughout the week.
Iran's Fars news agency quoted an unnamed official source saying there had been "no direct or indirect contact" with the US.
The source said Trump “backed down” after hearing Iran would target power plants in “West Asia”.
Reports from Axios suggested diplomatic backchannels were active between the US and Iran, with Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan helping pass messages.
Trump told Fox News that he believed a deal could come “in five days or sooner” following talks held “last night” with senior counterparts, offering tentative signs of potential de-escalation.
WTI crude oil prices fell to under $90 a barrel, having topped $101 early on Monday trading before plunging after Trump's post.
This prompted scepticism from analysts who revived the TACO acronym – Trump Always Chickens Out – suggesting the president moved to de-escalate after seeing markets in freefall.
"It's incredibly difficult to trade these markets when Trump is swinging between massive escalation and declaring peace/victory," said Neil Wilson at Saxo, "but the market is happy for now that we do not enter a new phase of danger."
Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com said the latest market moves "perfectly capture just how fragile and headline-driven this environment has become".
"The initial move reflects positioning with investors heavily hedged for escalation quickly pivoted toward relief, triggering a violent unwind. But the fact that the move was partially reversed highlights how little conviction there is in any single outcome. This is not a market that believes a resolution is imminent; it is a market reacting to any sign of an off-ramp, however fragile."
Gold prices pared earlier losses as the dollar weakened against major currencies, after the DXY index rose above 100 before the Trump post.
Bond markets also whipsawed violently, with the US 10-year Treasury yield having climbed to above 4.42%, the highest since last July, before dropping to 4.358%.