트럼프, 이란 전쟁 조기 종식 희망 좌절시키자 선물·채권 급락, 유가 급등

Futures, Bonds Tumble, Oil Soars After Trump Dashes Hopes For Early End To Iran War

Global risk assets, including US equity futures and global markets, as well as Treasuries and precious metals, tumbled as oil soared with Brent hitting $110 this morning after Trump's late Wednesday speech refused to pivot and dashed hopes that the Hormuz Strait would reopen soon and the war in the Middle East is nearing a swift resolution. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures dropped 1.7%, reversing yesterday's short squeeze as investors refuse to add to risk positions ahead of the long weekend when many speculate a ground invasion of Iran may begin. Nasdaq 100 contracts slumped 2% amid a premarket selloff in big tech stocks and chipmakers. Tech is getting hit hard with Mag7 and Semis lagging while Cyclicals ex-Energy are underperforming Defensives with both Staples and Healthcare down in absolute terms pointing to broad-based de-risking into the holiday weekend. Energy should have a good day as investors re-gross in the sector and Integrateds are trading up ~3% pre-mkt. Brent soared 8.2% to more than $109 a barrel after Trump pledged more aggressive action against Iran and offered no concrete plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel. Bonds tumbled as expectations that oil prices will stay higher for longer prompted traders to initiate fresh bets on tighter monetary policy. The dollar advance the most in a week while gold snapped a four-day streak of gains. US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)

In premarket trading,  Mag 7 stocks are all sharply lower (Nvidia -2.7%, Tesla -2.4%, Meta -2.4%, Alphabet -2.3%, Amazon -2.2%, Microsoft -1.3%, Apple -1%

Oil and gas companies rebound after Trump’s prime-time address. Movers include Chevron (CVX) +2.9% and Exxon (XOM) +3.2%.
Travel, mining and semiconductor stocks fall as the conflict and higher energy prices weigh on investor sentiment. Among movers: United Airlines (UAL) -4%, Newmont (NEM) -4.9%.
Globalstar (GSAT) rises 15% after a Financial Times report that Amazon.com Inc. is in talks to acquire the satellite provider.
Immunovant (IMVT) falls 7% after the drug developer said two late-stage studies of its experimental treatment for thyroid eye disease failed to meet their main goals.
Penguin Solutions (PENG) rises 9% after the semiconductor device company raised its full-year forecast for adjusted earnings.
Wingstop (WING) rises 1% as Piper Sandler and Raymond James upgrade the restaurant operator’s stock following a steep selloff.
In other corporate news, Amazon is said to be in talks to acquire satellite provider Globalstar, according to the FT, in a potential deal to bolster Amazon’s effort to build out its low-orbit satellite network to compete with SpaceX’s Starlink. In AI, Alibaba released its third proprietary AI model, Qwen3.6-Plus, in as many days to focus on profiting off its flagship AI services. 

Global risk sentiment was crushed after Trump talked again about leaving Iran quickly, but warned of escalation as the US continues to amass military assets in the Middle East. Understandably, global headlines continue to be dominated by the Middle East conflict, geopolitics, oil and the Strait of Hormuz. Australia is weighing using powers amid a possible gas shortfall, oil inventory stockpiles are dropping and the UAE has called on the UN to approve measures, including force, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

“The speech didn’t bring forward an off-ramp, it pushed the timeline out and reintroduced escalation,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. While it is not a full big bear event, “the direction of travel has clearly worsened, and that’s what markets are reacting to."

The US stock market has settled into a predictable weekly pattern since the Middle East war began. It starts the week on a strong note, drifts sideways toward the middle of the week and then collapses every Thursday and Friday, reflecting likely de-risking into a “trading blackout with unknowable risks.”  

“This market just isn’t manageable,” said Laurent Lamagnere, deputy chief executive officer at Alphavalue in Paris. “We’re really concerned about second-round effects, not only on oil prices but also on oil supply, for example, airlines trimming destinations with harsh consequences for tourism.”

While markets are shut Friday, key economic data is still scheduled to be released. Bloomberg Economics expect March nonfarm payrolls rose 80k, reflecting a rebound in strike-affected payrolls, sluggish private-sector hiring and a continued drag from federal payrolls. Recent changes to the BLS’ birth-death model of business formations may continue to inject volatility into the monthly figures. As a net exporter of light, sweet crude, geopolitical risk is less concerning to US-levered energy operators relative to international peers and WTI oil-price inflation will likely be transitory, according to Bloomberg economists. 

Elsewhere, the Trump administration is said to be close to announcing tariffs on drugmakers that haven’t struck deals guaranteeing low prices in the US. The US is set to roll out tiered tariffs on steel and aluminum products to simplify a process that has dogged American companies for months.

A KKR private credit fund for retail investors curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter. Private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, with buyout firms selling deals valued at about $103 billion in the first quarter, roughly 36% lower than the same period a year ago. The SEC and Elon Musk said they are heading toward a trial over the regulator’s allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 1.2% with technology and mining stocks leading the decliners, while energy and food and beverage shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

European oil stocks gain after President Donald Trump dented hopes of a swift end to the war in Iran, sending crude prices higher. BP and Galp also benefited from analyst upgrades. Mining shares underperformed as metals prices eased
SSE shares gain as much as 0.7% after the utility firm upgraded the lower end of its guidance range for adjusted earnings per share this year
Fortum gains as much as 4% after Citi upgrades the Finnish utility to neutral and says its 2026 earnings may positively surprise the market on the back of higher spot power prices
Amplifon falls as much as 4% after the stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas, which called the Italian company’s plan to acquire GN Store Nord’s hearing-aid business a “discordant deal”
Mutares shares fell as much as 13%, the most in four months, on Germany’s Xetra exchange after the private equity firm sold shares via a private placement
Asian stocks fell after President Donald Trump’s threat to launch fresh attacks on Iran disappointed investors who were hoping for clearer signs of an end to the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.6%, reversing small gains prior to Trump’s comments. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led losses in the region. The Philippines market was closed for a holiday.  The sudden downturn in sentiment came after Trump said that military operations could escalate over the next two to three weeks. Although he said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion, the US would hit electric plants in the country if no deal was reached, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1% against the greenback. The pound and Aussie dollar also underperform. Precious metals sink with spot silver down over 5%. Bitcoin falls 2.6%.

In rates, Treasury futures are off session lows with yields higher by 4bp to 6bp across the curve. Most losses occurred during Asia session following Trump’s prime-time address pledging more aggressive action against Iran and lacking a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.36% is about 4bp cheaper on the day after peaking at 4.384%. Curve spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. European government bonds fall as traders boost bets on rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year. UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. Gilts underperform, with 2-year yields are cheaper by around 10bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings were priced Wednesday, with borrowers paying about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times oversubscribed. Dealers project about $115b of April supply vs about $105b a year earlier and about half of March’s $236.5b volume

In commodities, energy prices jump with Brent crude futures for June up around 7% and above $108 a barrel as investors weigh prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures climb 4.5% while European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel.

US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -1.6%
Nasdaq 100 mini -2.0%,
Russell 2000 mini -2.0%
Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
DAX -1.6%,
CAC 40 -0.9%
10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.37%
VIX +2 points at 26.51
Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1217.6,
euro -0.6% at $1.1524
WTI crude +7.2% at $107.31/barrel
Top Overnight News

Oil rose after President Trump’s prime-time address disappointed investors hoping for a quick end to the Iran war. In an address late Wednesday, Trump said he was still seeking a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict and that U.S. military aims would be completed “very shortly.” But he also vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages.” WSJ
Trump rattled markets and heightened political tensions with an address that offered no clear timeline for ending the Iran war, while pledging more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks. Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes and the US president renewed threats against Iranian electric plants. BBG
The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes drugmakers to manufacture more in the US. The levies – set to be announced as soon as Thursday – would be applied to companies that have not struck deals with the White House. FT
Congressional Democrats sued to block Trump’s executive order that would prohibit mail-in voting for anyone not on a pre-approved list compiled by the DHS. BBG              
China’s central bank withdrew cash from its financial system in March for the first time in a year, amid signs of an economic rebound. BBG
Former BOJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine said the central bank may raise rates as soon as April, due to the risk of supply shocks. BBG
Swiss inflation accelerated 0.3% in March, the quickest pace in a year, as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil. BBG
Global private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, with buyout firms selling deals valued at about $103 billion in the first quarter, roughly 36% lower than the same period a year ago. FT
The US is set to outline a tiered regime for steel and aluminum, maintaining 50% duties on many products but applying lower rates to others. BBG
A KKR private credit fund for retail investors curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter.
The SEC and Elon Musk said they are heading toward a trial over the regulator’s allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is down 1.2% with technology and mining stocks leading the decliners, while energy and food and beverage shares are the biggest outperformers. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

European oil stocks gain after President Donald Trump dented hopes of a swift end to the war in Iran, sending crude prices higher. BP and Galp also benefited from analyst upgrades. Mining shares underperformed as metals prices eased
SSE shares gain as much as 0.7% after the utility firm upgraded the lower end of its guidance range for adjusted earnings per share this year
Fortum gains as much as 4% after Citi upgrades the Finnish utility to neutral and says its 2026 earnings may positively surprise the market on the back of higher spot power prices
Amplifon falls as much as 4% after the stock was downgraded to neutral from outperform at BNP Paribas, which called the Italian company’s plan to acquire GN Store Nord’s hearing-aid business a “discordant deal”
Mutares shares fell as much as 13%, the most in four months, on Germany’s Xetra exchange after the private equity firm sold shares via a private placement
Asian stocks fell after President Donald Trump’s threat to launch fresh attacks on Iran disappointed investors who were hoping for clearer signs of an end to the war. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 2.6%, reversing small gains prior to Trump’s comments. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan led losses in the region. The Philippines market was closed for a holiday.  The sudden downturn in sentiment came after Trump said that military operations could escalate over the next two to three weeks. Although he said the war in Iran was “very close” to completion, the US would hit electric plants in the country if no deal was reached, dampening hopes for a quick resolution to the conflict. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gains 0.5%. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 1% against the greenback. The pound and Aussie dollar also underperform. Precious metals sink with spot silver down over 5%. Bitcoin falls 2.6%.

In rates, Treasury futures are off session lows with yields higher by 4bp to 6bp across the curve. Most losses occurred during Asia session following Trump’s prime-time address pledging more aggressive action against Iran and lacking a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 10-year Treasury yield near 4.36% is about 4bp cheaper on the day after peaking at 4.384%. Curve spreads remain within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. European government bonds fall as traders boost bets on rate hikes by the Bank of England and European Central Bank this year. UK and German 10-year yields rise 7 bps and 4 bps respectively. Gilts underperform, with 2-year yields are cheaper by around 10bp on the day. IG dollar issuance slate empty so far. Three offerings were priced Wednesday, with borrowers paying about 4bps in new issue concessions on deals that were 4.1 times oversubscribed. Dealers project about $115b of April supply vs about $105b a year earlier and about half of March’s $236.5b volume

In commodities, energy prices jump with Brent crude futures for June up around 7% and above $108 a barrel as investors weigh prolonged disruptions to energy flows through the vital Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas futures climb 4.5% while European diesel futures hit $200 a barrel.

US economic data calendar includes March Challenger job cuts (7:30am New York time), February trade balance and weekly jobless claims (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Logan (10:15am) and Bowman (12:45pm)

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 mini -1.6%
Nasdaq 100 mini -2.0%,
Russell 2000 mini -2.0%
Stoxx Europe 600 -1%,
DAX -1.6%,
CAC 40 -0.9%
10-year Treasury yield +5 basis points at 4.37%
VIX +2 points at 26.51
Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.4% at 1217.6,
euro -0.6% at $1.1524
WTI crude +7.2% at $107.31/barrel
Top Overnight News

Oil rose after President Trump’s prime-time address disappointed investors hoping for a quick end to the Iran war. In an address late Wednesday, Trump said he was still seeking a diplomatic agreement to end the conflict and that U.S. military aims would be completed “very shortly.” But he also vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and pummel the country “back to the Stone Ages.” WSJ
Trump rattled markets and heightened political tensions with an address that offered no clear timeline for ending the Iran war, while pledging more aggressive action over the next two to three weeks. Iran and Israel continued to trade strikes and the US president renewed threats against Iranian electric plants. BBG
The Trump administration is preparing to impose tariffs of 100% on certain medicines as it pushes drugmakers to manufacture more in the US. The levies – set to be announced as soon as Thursday – would be applied to companies that have not struck deals with the White House. FT
China’s central bank withdrew cash from its financial system in March for the first time in a year, amid signs of an economic rebound. BBG
Former BOJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine said the central bank may raise rates as soon as April, due to the risk of supply shocks. BBG
Swiss inflation accelerated 0.3% in March, the quickest pace in a year, as the energy supply crunch stoked the cost of heating oil. BBG
Global private equity sales have fallen by more than a third this year, with buyout firms selling deals valued at about $103 billion in the first quarter, roughly 36% lower than the same period a year ago. FT
The US is set to outline a tiered regime for steel and aluminum, maintaining 50% duties on many products but applying lower rates to others. BBG
A KKR private credit fund for retail investors curbed redemptions after receiving an increase in such requests, according to a shareholder letter.
The SEC and Elon Musk said they are heading toward a trial over the regulator’s allegations that the billionaire cheated Twitter investors before his 2022 buyout.