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Morgan Stanley reiterated its Equalweight rating and $675 price target on Lockheed Martin (LMT) following the company's announcement of a new framework agreement with the Department of War to quadruple production of the Precision Strike Missile.
LMT shares were trading at $621.73 at the time of the note, up 27% over the past six months. The $675 target implies approximately 8.5% upside from that level. Morgan Stanley described the deal as consistent with and additive to Lockheed's broader munitions acceleration strategy.
What the Precision Strike Missile deal involves
Lockheed Martin and the Department of Defense announced the agreement on March 25. It builds on a previous $4.94 billion contract awarded by the US Army last year and together the two actions will quadruple PrSM production capacity, from approximately 400 to 1,600 units per year.
The agreement also establishes the potential to negotiate a multi-year contract of up to seven years, subject to congressional authorization. That structure gives Lockheed and its subcontractors the long-term demand signal needed to invest in factory expansion and automation.
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"Lockheed Martin delivers the advanced precision fires capabilities the warfighter needs, including the Precision Strike Missile, which expands deep-strike capability," said Lockheed Martin Chairman, President and CEO Jim Taiclet. "We are working closely with the Department of War and the U.S. Army to build the Arsenal of Freedom."
Michael Duffey, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, added: "By empowering industry to invest in the factory floor, we are building a decisive and enduring advantage for our warfighters to outpace any potential adversary."
Why Morgan Stanley sees this as a positive signal
Morgan Stanley noted that the PrSM deal is part of a broader pattern of multi-year agreements between the Pentagon and Lockheed that are shifting the funding environment for the company's missile programs.
The firm had previously noted similar deals: a separate framework to triple PAC-3 MSE interceptor production and another to quadruple THAAD interceptor production capacity. Together, Morgan Stanley said these agreements signal "structurally higher" Department of War demand for missile systems while improving outyear funding and production visibility.
The bank sees two specific benefits for Lockheed from this environment. First, greater funding certainty allows the company to invest in facilities, supply chains, and workforce without the risk of sudden budget cuts. Second, higher production rates create the potential for margin expansion as fixed costs are spread across greater volumes.