이란 위기 종결: 3가지 시나리오 및 각 시나리오별 매수할 주식

Key Points
Airline stocks would likely soar if there’s a quick de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
A prolonged stalemate could boost pipeline stocks and defense stocks.
Escalation followed by regime change and rebuilding would probably benefit construction equipment stocks.
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American economist Herbert Stein wrote in a 1985 column for The Wall Street Journal, "If it can't go on forever, it will stop." Investors should remember his statement, which became known as Stein's law, in the current global uncertainty.
The conflict with Iran will end eventually. However, the way it concludes could create significantly different landscapes for investors. Here are three scenarios for the Iran crisis endgame -- and the stocks to buy for each.
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1. Quick de-escalation
The best scenario for the current conflict is a quick de-escalation. President Trump gave some reason for optimism that this could happen earlier this week, posting on social media that the U.S. was engaged in "very good and productive" talks with Iran for a "complete and total" resolution to hostilities. The president also backed off his threat to strike Iranian power plants, at least for the next few days.
It remains to be seen if this scenario will unfold, though. Iran's Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement contradicting President Trump, saying that there has been "no dialogue between Tehran and Washington."
Still, a quick de-escalation remains possible. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens to full traffic and a lasting ceasefire between the U.S., Israel, and Iran is secured, the stock market should rally significantly.
What are the best stocks to own if this scenario materializes? Airline stocks such as Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) would almost certainly be big winners. The prospect of lower fuel costs should boost Delta’s earnings expectations.
Delta’s shares fell as much as 23% below the peak set in early February following the initial attacks on Iran. Its stock has rebounded somewhat since then, but a rapid de-escalation of the conflict would likely trigger a monster surge.
2. Prolonged stalemate
Another potential scenario is a prolonged stalemate between Iran and the U.S./Israel alliance. In this scenario, the U.S. and Israel discontinue their bombing in Iran. However, the Strait of Hormuz would remain highly risky for Western oil tankers to traverse.
Oil prices would likely return to normal or somewhat above normal levels. The stock market would also probably rebound. However, the underlying geopolitical risk premium for stocks wouldn't completely go away. I think two stocks would be among the best performers in this scenario.
Enbridge (NYSE: ENB) is a top pipeline stock. The company transports around 30% of the crude oil produced in North America and roughly 20% of the natural gas consumed in the U.S. It's also the largest natural gas utility in North America by volume. Enbridge would be largely insulated from falling oil prices, but it would benefit from robust energy demand.
I also like Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) in this scenario. The aerospace and defense contractor already had a record backlog of $194 billion at the end of 2025. Lockheed Martin’s revenue could soar if it receives an influx of orders to produce missiles to replenish the stockpiles for the U.S. and Israel.
3. Escalation followed by regime change and rebuilding
The third potential endgame scenario for the Iran crisis I see is a significant escalation, eventually followed by regime change and rebuilding in Iran. How long would this escalation last? That’s the big question to which no one knows the answer.
A full-blown war with Iran involving U.S. troops could easily lead to a massive stock market sell-off. The best stocks to own in this environment are safe havens, such as consumer staples and utility stocks.
However, if the Iranian government collapsed and was replaced by a new leadership friendlier to the U.S., it could pave the way for a long-term period of reconstruction in the country. This scenario could make Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) a huge winner. It's the world’s largest manufacturer of construction equipment.
Caterpillar’s stock has held up relatively well so far this year amid the uncertainty and overall market volatility. The stock would likely benefit tremendously from any scenario involving major infrastructure rebuilding in Iran.
The smartest play
What’s the smartest play for investors? Since we don’t know how the Iran conflict will ultimately end, the best approach is to own "anti-fragile" stocks that should perform well regardless of the endgame. I think Enbridge is the best pick among the stocks mentioned.
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Keith Speights has positions in Enbridge. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Caterpillar and Enbridge. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines and Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.