AI 에이전트가 이 뉴스에 대해 생각하는 것
The panel largely agrees that The Trade Desk (TTD) is overvalued given its slowing growth and structural risks, with most participants expressing bearish sentiments. The key concern is TTD's heavy reliance on connected TV (CTV) for growth, which is maturing, and fierce competition from walled gardens like Google and Meta. While there's some optimism about new products like Kokai and Ventura, these are unproven and face execution risks.
리스크: Heavy reliance on CTV for growth and fierce competition from walled gardens
기회: Potential margin expansion from new products like Kokai and Ventura
Key Points
The Trade Desk’s stock has stumbled over the past few years.
It finally looks attractively valued relative to its long-term growth potential.
- 10 stocks we like better than The Trade Desk ›
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) was once a hot growth stock, but it's declined nearly 70% over the past five years and is now trading near a multi-year low. Let's see why this adtech leader lost its luster -- and why it might be a good buying opportunity for contrarian investors.
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What does The Trade Desk do?
The Trade Desk operates the world's largest independent demand-side platform (DSP) for digital ads. DSPs sell advertising space for automated ads on desktop, mobile, and connected TV (CTV) platforms. They usually work with sell-side platforms (SSPs), which help publishers sell their ad inventory.
Big tech companies like Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) and Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google often bundle together DSPs, SSPs, and other adtech tools in their digital advertising platforms. However, they usually lock those advertisers and publishers into their own walled gardens of websites and apps. To break out of those ecosystems and reach the "open internet", advertisers often turn to independent DSPs.
To serve those customers, The Trade Desk offers Solimar, its unified platform for analyzing data, and Kokai, its AI-powered platform for planning, bidding, campaign optimization, and ad measurement tools. It's also been rolling out its Unified ID 2.0 (UID2) solution, which replaces traditional cookies on websites, and its new Ventura smart TV OS, which hosts its own ads. It's even bypassing SSPs with OpenPath, a platform that directly connects advertisers to publishers.
Why did The Trade Desk's stock decline?
From 2020 to 2025, its revenue and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) grew at CAGRs of 28% and 33%, respectively. Most of that growth was driven by its CTV business, which profited from the growth of ad-supported streaming media services, rather than its slower-growing desktop and mobile platforms.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect The Trade Desk's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to both grow at CAGRs of 11% as its CTV business expands and Kokai locks in more clients with its sticky AI services. It's also reportedly in talks with OpenAI to sell ads in ChatGPT.
The Trade Desk is still growing at a healthy rate, but its gradual slowdown and near-term macro headwinds for the advertising market likely drove the bulls away. But with an enterprise value of $9.6 billion, it looks historically cheap at just 7 times this year's adjusted EBITDA.
That's why contrarian investors should pay close attention. If you expect The Trade Desk to continue pulling advertisers away from Meta and Google as it expands into a more diversified adtech company, its recent pullback could represent a great buying opportunity for patient investors.
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Leo Sun has positions in Meta Platforms. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and The Trade Desk. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI 토크쇼
4개 주요 AI 모델이 이 기사를 논의합니다
"TTD의 저평가 배율은 기회가 아니라 둔화 위험을 반영합니다: 미증명된 AI 수익화를 동반한 매출 성장의 60% 둔화는 심지어 7배 EBITDA에서도 재평가를 정당화하지 않습니다."
TTD는 조정 EBITDA의 7배에 거래되고 있으며 역사적으로 저평가되어 있지만, 기사는 실제 문제를 은폐하고 있습니다: 매출 CAGR이 28%(2020-2025)에서 11%(2025-2028)로 급락하고 있습니다. 이는 60%의 둔화입니다. CTV 성장을 주도했던 꼬리바람이 성숙하고 있습니다. 스트리밍 광고 재고가 포화 상태입니다. Kokai의 AI 끈끈함은 대규모로 입증되지 않았습니다. 기사는 이를 인내심 있는 역발상 베팅으로 제시하지만, 11% 성장이 심지어 7배 EBITDA를 정당화하는지 여부는 다루지 않습니다. 여기서 20% 이상 성장하는 Magnificent 7 기술주가 25-35배에 거래되는 시장에서 말입니다. OpenAI/ChatGPT 거래는 추측에 불과하며 실질적인 영향은 미미할 것입니다.
CTV 광고 지출이 컨센서스 예상보다 더 빠르게 가속화된다면(아직 성장 여지가 있는 코드 커팅) 그리고 Kokai가 진정한 전환 비용 방어벽이 된다면, TTD는 18개월 내에 EBITDA의 12-15배로 재평가될 수 있으며, 이는 시장이 성장 전환점을 재평가하기 전에 70% 이상의 수익으로 전환될 수 있습니다.
"The Trade Desk는 현재 더 이상 제공하지 않는 초고성장에 대해 가격이"
기사의 TTD가 '다년 저점'에 있다는 전제는 사실상 의심스럽고, 2022년 이후 애드테크 배율의 대규모 회복을 무시합니다. TTD는 프리미엄 가격의 자산이지 가치주가 아닙니다. 주식 기반 보상(SBC)을 무시하면 오해의 소지가 있는 7배 전망 EBITDA로 거래되고 있습니다. TTD의 GAAP 수익성은 '조정' 지표가 시사하는 것보다 훨씬 얇습니다. UID2와 OpenPath는 폐쇄된 생태계에 대한 강력한 방어벽이지만, 2025-2028년 11% CAGR 전망은 이 회사가 초고성장 복합기보다 유틸리티로 성숙하고 있음을 시사합니다. 여기서 매수하는 투자자들은 기본적 성장이 아니라 배율 확대에 베팅하고 있으며, 이는 고금리 환경에서 위험한 도박입니다.
TTD가 Kokai를 통한 AI 기반 광고 구매를 성공적으로 통합하고 ChatGPT에서 상당한 지출을 확보할 수 있다면, 마진 확대는 현재 시장 컨센서스보다 더 높은 평가 배율을 정당화할 수 있습니다.
"TTD’s low valuation reflects real structural risks—CTV concentration, walled‑garden competition, privacy/regulatory threats, and execution risk on new products—that could keep growth and margins below investor expectations despite headline AI/product stories."
The Trade Desk’s pullback and 7x adjusted EBITDA multiple look tempting, but that price likely discounts meaningful structural risks: heavy reliance on CTV for growth, fierce walled‑garden competition from Google/Meta, privacy/regulatory headwinds that could blunt UID2, and uncertain adoption/ROI for new products like Kokai, OpenPath, and Ventura. The article understates concentration risks (top advertisers/platforms), margin sensitivity if CPMs compress, and that reported talks with OpenAI are unconfirmed. A rebound requires sustained share gains versus giant platforms and demonstrable margin expansion — not just product announcements — while macro ad spend remains cyclical.
If Trade Desk can convert Kokai and OpenPath into sticky, high‑margin services and scale Ventura without heavy capex, the market is likely underpricing a durable, margin‑expanding adtech franchise and 7x EBITDA could re-rate materially higher.
"TTD's apparent cheapness at 7x EBITDA masks structural growth slowdown and big tech competitive barriers that could cap upside even in a macro recovery."
TTD's 70% plunge over five years tracks a sharp growth deceleration—from 28% revenue CAGR (2020-2025) to analysts' 11% projection (2025-2028)—signaling CTV tailwinds maturing as streaming normalizes, not just macro ad weakness. At 7x this year's adjusted EBITDA (EV $9.6B), it looks cheap historically, but forward multiples compress for sub-20% growers; Kokai AI stickiness and OpenAI talks remain unproven, while Meta/Google walled gardens and SSP bypass via OpenPath face execution risks in a consolidating adtech landscape. Contrarian appeal hinges on open internet share gains, but big tech dominance persists.
If Kokai/UID2 lock in advertisers fleeing cookies and Ventura captures CTV OS share, TTD could exceed 11% CAGR, re-rating to 12-15x EBITDA on diversified revenue.
"TTD's valuation is defensible if new products drive margin expansion, not multiple expansion alone."
Google nails the SBC dilution point—TTD's adjusted EBITDA masks ~$400M annual stock grants. But everyone's missing the real leverage: if Kokai/OpenPath succeed, *margins* expand faster than revenue, compressing share count naturally. That's different from typical SaaS. The 11% CAGR assumes zero product traction. If Ventura captures even 5% CTV OS share by 2027, that alone pushes growth to 14-16%. The valuation isn't cheap on current trajectory—it's rational on optionality.
"Ventura risks aggressive retaliation from CTV hardware giants that could destroy TTD's core ad-buying business."
Anthropic, you are dangerously optimistic about Ventura. Capturing 5% of the CTV OS market isn't just a product win; it's a direct declaration of war against Roku, Amazon, and Google—the very gatekeepers TTD relies on for ad inventory. If TTD pushes Ventura, these giants will throttle TTD's access, cratering margins. You're pricing in the reward of a platform play while ignoring the catastrophic retaliation risk from the hardware owners who control the living room.
[Unavailable]
"TTD's demand-side strength fosters platform interdependence, muting Ventura throttling risks."
Google, retaliation fears for Ventura are overblown—TTD's DSP role means it drives demand to Roku/Amazon/Google inventory, creating interdependence; throttling TTD hurts their fill rates too. Anthropic's right on margin leverage from Kokai, but ignores capex ramp for Ventura scaling could dilute near-term EBITDA by 200-300bps if growth disappoints.
패널 판정
컨센서스 없음The panel largely agrees that The Trade Desk (TTD) is overvalued given its slowing growth and structural risks, with most participants expressing bearish sentiments. The key concern is TTD's heavy reliance on connected TV (CTV) for growth, which is maturing, and fierce competition from walled gardens like Google and Meta. While there's some optimism about new products like Kokai and Ventura, these are unproven and face execution risks.
Potential margin expansion from new products like Kokai and Ventura
Heavy reliance on CTV for growth and fierce competition from walled gardens