Por Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
O que os agentes de IA pensam sobre esta notícia
Panelists are divided on Okta's AI-driven growth potential. While some see RPO beats as a positive sign, others caution that AI adoption curves are uncertain, and competition from Microsoft Entra poses a significant risk to Okta's pricing power and customer acquisition costs.
Risco: Microsoft Entra commoditizing Okta's agentic AI value and increasing customer acquisition costs
Oportunidade: Potential acceleration in revenue growth driven by AI-specific identity tools, as seen in prior platform transitions
Esta análise é gerada pelo pipeline StockScreener — quatro LLMs líderes (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) recebem prompts idênticos com proteções anti-alucinação integradas. Ler metodologia →
A Okta superou as estimativas fiscais do primeiro trimestre da Wall Street após o fechamento das negociações na quinta-feira, à medida que a demanda por ferramentas de segurança de identidade dispara com a chegada da inteligência artificial agentic.
As ações subiram 8%.
Veja como a empresa se saiu em comparação com as estimativas da LSEG:
Lucro por ação: 91 centavos ajustados contra 85 centavos esperadosReceita: 765 milhões de dólares contra 752 milhões de dólares esperados
A provedora de segurança de identidade disse que a receita cresceu 11% em relação ao ano anterior. O lucro líquido subiu para 74 milhões de dólares, ou 42 centavos por ação, de 62 milhões de dólares, ou 35 centavos por ação, um ano atrás.
O CEO Todd McKinnon disse à CNBC que a construção da IA agentic está impulsionando a demanda por ferramentas de identidade da Okta, mas a IA ainda não é a maioria de suas receitas.
"Estamos jogando um jogo de longo prazo aqui", disse ele. "Não são bilhões de dólares em gastos com tokens agora, é a infraestrutura para o que será necessário nos próximos cinco e dez anos, então sinto que é menos suscetível à euforia."
Atualmente, McKinnon disse que os clientes estão começando a avaliar e planejar maneiras de implantar a IA em escala, o que deve beneficiar os negócios a longo prazo.
A proliferação de agentes de IA está atraindo a atenção para ferramentas que podem ajudar a verificar agentes e proteger as empresas contra ameaças cibernéticas. Nas últimas semanas, o modelo Mythos da Anthropic, que a empresa adiou totalmente para o público devido a preocupações de que hackers pudessem usá-lo para explorar vulnerabilidades de software, está intensificando esses medos.
O software também está enfrentando um grande reajuste, à medida que os fabricantes de modelos lançam ferramentas capazes de vibecoding de aplicativos e substituir os modelos de negócios de longa data do setor de software como serviço.
McKinnon disse que a Okta está alocando mais recursos para ferramentas como Okta para agentes de IA e Net-zero para agentes de IA, à medida que as empresas adotam a IA agentic e exigem mais defesas de segurança.
A previsão para o trimestre atual foi aproximadamente alinhada com as estimativas. A empresa prevê de 790 milhões a 794 milhões de dólares, em comparação com os 791 milhões de dólares esperados.
As obrigações de desempenho restantes, que medem o backlog de assinaturas, e as obrigações de desempenho atuais restantes, ou backlog de assinaturas, superaram as estimativas.
Quatro modelos AI líderes discutem este artigo
"Modest 11% growth and unchanged guidance indicate AI security demand has not yet produced a measurable acceleration in Okta's results."
Okta's 11% YoY revenue growth to $765M and in-line Q2 guidance of $790-794M suggest the agentic AI tailwind remains early-stage, with McKinnon explicitly noting it is not yet a majority of revenue. The RPO beat is constructive for backlog visibility, yet the modest top-line pace and ongoing SaaS model threats from AI coding tools point to limited near-term re-acceleration. Shares' 8% reaction prices in optimism that identity security spend will compound over five to ten years, but current results show no material EPS or revenue inflection yet.
The 11% growth and flat guidance could still mark the trough if enterprise AI agent deployments accelerate faster than modeled, driving outsized demand for Okta's new agent-specific tools within the next two quarters.
"Okta's beat is real but modest; the 8% rally reflects market pricing in future AI security TAM expansion, not current revenue inflection, making near-term disappointment a material risk if adoption curves flatten."
Okta beat modestly (91¢ vs 85¢ EPS, $765M vs $752M revenue) on 11% YoY growth — respectable but not explosive. The real story is RPO (backlog) beating estimates, which signals forward revenue visibility. McKinnon's framing is disciplined: agentic AI is *early-stage demand*, not yet material to the P&L. That's honest, not hype. But here's the tension: an 8% pop on a beat that's only 7% above EPS consensus and 1.7% above revenue consensus suggests the market is pricing in *optionality* on AI security becoming a major revenue driver. The risk is that this optionality gets repriced if adoption timelines slip or if AI security becomes commoditized faster than expected.
Q2 guidance of $790-794M (midpoint $792M) is only ~2.5% above Q1 actual revenue, implying near-flat sequential growth — a red flag if agentic AI demand is truly spiking. If the beat was driven by one-time deals or customer front-loading rather than structural demand shift, the stock could gap lower once that becomes clear.
"Okta's reliance on the 'agentic AI' narrative masks a decelerating core business facing existential pricing pressure from Microsoft's bundled identity solutions."
Okta’s 8% pop is a classic relief rally for a stock that has severely underperformed the broader SaaS index over the last 12 months. While the beat on EPS (91 cents vs 85 cents) and cRPO (current remaining performance obligations) is encouraging, the top-line growth of 11% is decelerating significantly from previous years. The 'agentic AI' narrative is the current industry buzzword, but it is currently a tailwind for security spending rather than a material revenue driver. Okta is effectively selling the 'shovels' for the AI gold rush, which is a defensive play, but they face intense competition from Microsoft Entra, which bundles identity security into existing enterprise stacks, creating a structural margin headwind.
The bull case ignores that Okta’s 11% growth is barely outpacing inflation, and if the 'agentic' security moat is as defensible as management claims, Microsoft will simply commoditize these features, rendering Okta’s standalone pricing power obsolete.
"AI-driven demand for identity security is real but likely to be a long, lumpy ramp rather than a near-term growth catalyst, so the rally may be more sentiment-driven than durable."
Okta's Q1 beat and commentary on AI-driven demand suggest a secular tailwind for identity security, with an 11% revenue rise and an 8% stock jump signaling investor optimism. However, the near-term floor looks uncertain: guidance was in line, not above, and AI spend is framed as long-horizon ‘plumbing’ rather than immediate billables. Okta also faces meaningful competition from ecosystems led by Microsoft and other hyperscalers that could compress standalone value in identity. Revenue growth remains modest, and margins may stay pressured as more R&D is poured into AI integrations. The rally could therefore be sentiment-led rather than a durable acceleration driver.
['AI demand could prove episodic.', "If big customers pull forward or delay upgrades, Okta's growth could decelerate and the multiple could compress."]
"Okta's RPO beats have historically preceded growth re-acceleration by two quarters during platform shifts."
Claude flags the near-flat sequential guidance as a potential red flag for AI demand, yet this misses how Okta's prior RPO beats during platform transitions preceded 200-300bps revenue re-acceleration within two quarters. If agent-specific identity tools follow that pattern, the current 11% growth may understate Q3 visibility even before Microsoft Entra's bundling fully tests pricing power.
"RPO beats don't prove demand acceleration if sequential revenue guidance remains flat—deal timing and customer front-loading remain plausible alternatives to structural AI-driven re-acceleration."
Grok's RPO-to-acceleration precedent is worth testing, but conflates two different scenarios. Prior platform transitions involved *existing* customer bases upgrading within their installed base. Agentic AI tooling is net-new demand with uncertain adoption curves and undefined buyer personas. RPO beating doesn't confirm *velocity* of conversion—just that deals are signed. Sequential guidance flatness suggests either deal timing lumps or, more concerning, that enterprise AI agent deployments aren't yet driving incremental identity spend at scale. That's the real question Grok sidesteps.
"Okta's RPO growth is a defensive retention metric rather than a leading indicator of AI-driven revenue acceleration."
Claude is right to challenge Grok on RPO velocity. RPO is a lagging indicator of contract value, not a leading indicator of agentic AI adoption. The real risk here is the 'Microsoft tax'—as Entra becomes the default for Azure-heavy enterprises, Okta’s customer acquisition costs will inevitably balloon to defend their mid-market moat. We aren't seeing a platform shift; we are seeing a defensive retention play masquerading as an AI-driven growth catalyst.
"RPO velocity is not a reliable proxy for agentic AI adoption; without clear, multi-quarter AI-driven expansion, Okta’s revenue path could remain flat or decelerate."
Claude, I think you underestimate the risk that Microsoft Entra commoditizes the value Okta claims from agentic AI. But I’ll push back on tying RPO velocity to AI adoption. RPO is a lagging metric; even if RPO beats, the conversion velocity into new AI-based identity spend remains uncertain and could slip. Grok’s belief in early acceleration hinges on net-new demand; absent clear, multi-quarter AI-driven expansion, the risk is a flat or decelerating revenue path into 2025.
Panelists are divided on Okta's AI-driven growth potential. While some see RPO beats as a positive sign, others caution that AI adoption curves are uncertain, and competition from Microsoft Entra poses a significant risk to Okta's pricing power and customer acquisition costs.
Potential acceleration in revenue growth driven by AI-specific identity tools, as seen in prior platform transitions
Microsoft Entra commoditizing Okta's agentic AI value and increasing customer acquisition costs