อัปเดตล่าสุด: อัตราดอกเบี้ยคงที่ ธนาคารกลางสหรัฐฯ คาดการณ์ว่าจะปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ย 1 ครั้งในปี 2026

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected.
Along with its second policy decision of the year, the Fed also published its first Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for 2026, which showed that officials maintained a median forecast for one rate cut in 2026. In December, the median Federal Open Market Committee member also projected one rate cut this year.
Stocks fell on Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the uncertainty surrounding the oil shock during his press conference and said the US had not made as much progress on inflation as it had hoped.
Markets closely watched the press conference for clues on how the war in Iran might shift the Fed's rate-cutting calculus. The recent spike in oil prices, driven by the Middle East conflict, has complicated the Fed's picture, as inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target and the labor market slows.
Here are the latest updates and analysis on the Fed's policy decision.
- Grace O'Donnell
Bank of England follows Fed in keeping rates on hold
The Bank of England left interest rates on hold at 3.75%, as expected.
The decision comes as the war in Iran raised concerns that surging oil and gas prices could drive inflation higher, making it more complicated for central banks to deliver further easing.
London’s benchmark index (^FTSE) fell 2% after the decision, while the pound rose 0.2% against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X). In the US, stocks ground lower in premarket trading.
Later today, the European Central Bank is also expected to keep rates on hold at 2%.
- Grace O'Donnell
Plenty to worry about, but not stagflation, says Powell
Yahoo Finance's Hamza Shaban writes in today's Morning Brief newsletter:
- Grace O'Donnell
Fed Chair Powell: Job creation is near zero
Job creation in the US has slowed to essentially zero, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday. And although central bankers see some stability in the labor market, they remain concerned about the low level of job creation.
Yahoo Finance's Emma Ockerman reports:
- Grace O'Donnell
When the Fed cuts rates next, what will it mean for banking and borrowing?
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve decided not to cut rates, extending its pause that began in 2026. But experts say more rate cuts could be on the table in 2026, with the median Fed official forecasting a cut in December.
When the Fed ultimately decides to lower rates, what does that mean for banking and borrowing?
Yahoo Finance's Sarah C. Brady explains what you can expect after a rate cut from the Fed::
- Grace O'Donnell
Why delayed Fed rate cuts now could lead to bigger cuts later
The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but the consequences of the Middle East conflict could complicate the picture for the rest of the year.
"What the Iran war does for the Fed is it kind of delays, not denies, these rate cuts," Morgan Stanley senior fixed income portfolio manager Andrew Szczurowki told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday (see video below).
"So I think that obviously we know oil's been shooting up, we know that's going to feed into headline inflation. Ultimately, I think the Fed's going to look through that, but it's going to take them some time. They want to make sure that there's not kind of spill-on effects into the service sector, other parts of the goods sector."
Szczurowki noted that the longer the uncertainty stemming from the war persists, the more pressure it could put on the labor market, and not just on consumer prices. He pointed out that companies may defer hiring plans as they wait to see how the war and artificial intelligence shape the business environment, putting downward pressure on the labor market.
As a result, the Fed may need to make a larger policy adjustment down the road.
"I think a year from now, ... the Fed will be cutting more than the market's pricing in," Szczurowki said. "But I think in the short term, the Fed’s just going to be sitting on their hands."
- Grace O'Donnell
3 takeaways from the Fed meeting
Here are three key things that caught our eye from Wednesday's FOMC statement and press
1. The Fed continues to wait and see what the war in the Middle East has in store for inflation pressures and growth. Fed Chair Powell signaled the Fed could delay rate cuts due to high uncertainty about the war's duration and its economic implications.
2. Officials forecast slightly higher economic growth and hotter inflation this year in their quarterly Summary of Economic Projections.
3. Fed Chair Powell said he would stay at the Fed at least until the Department of Justice's investigation concludes. If the incoming Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is not yet confirmed, Powell said he would continue to serve as chair on a temporary basis until a new chair is confirmed.
- Grace O'Donnell
Stocks accelerate losses after Powell raises inflation concerns
Stocks sold off on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady, its first move since oil prices surged amid the war in Iran.
At the market close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1.6% for the day, with most of the selling occurring during the Fed's post-decision press conference. Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P 500 (^GSPC) index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) dropped about 1.4%.
The Dow and S&P 500 gave up their gains for the past five days and recorded their lowest levels since November after Fed Chair Powell elevated inflation concerns in his presser.
The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rose more than 5 basis points, and the 30-year (^TYX) was up about 3 basis points to 4.88%. The US dollar index (DX-Y.NYB) also moved above 100, pressuring trades in emerging markets and commodities.
Read more about the day's market moves in stocks, bonds, oil, and more.
- Grace O'Donnell
Powell says US economy is not facing 'stagflation'
Fed Chair Powell pushed back on the notion that the US economy is experiencing "stagflation" — a gloomy combination of rising prices, sluggish economic growth, and high unemployment.
Although he acknowledged that the Fed's dual goals of price and labor market stability are in tension, he said that stagflation "is not the situation we’re in."
"You know, when we use the term stagflation, I always have to point out that was a 1970s term at a time when unemployment was in double figures and inflation was really high and the misery index was super high," Powell explained.
"That's not the case right now," he added. "We actually have unemployment really close to longer run normal, and we have inflation that's one percentage point above [the Fed’s target]. ... I would reserve the term stagflation for a much more serious set of circumstances."
- Grace O'Donnell
Powell: Labor market is in balance, but it's an uncomfortable balance
Fed Chair Powell said that a "good number of people" on the Federal Open Market Committee are concerned about the low level of job creation over the past six months.
The government's jobs report in January surprised to the upside, showing the US economy added around 126,000 jobs, while the report for February showed an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs.
While factors like severe winter storms may have affected counting, Powell noted that the two months nearly canceled each other out. Changes in immigration, disruption from artificial intelligence, and other policies may be contributing to the low level of job creation — something the Fed is watching closely.
"You've got a sort of zero employment growth equilibrium," Powell said. "Now that's balance, OK, but, you know, I would say it does have a feel of downside risk, and it’s not a really comfortable balance."
- Brooke DiPalma
Powell: 'If we were to skip an SEP, this would be a good one'
Ahead of the Fed's decision, there was much discussion about how seriously to take the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the 19 members of the committee had to "write something down," but there is still a lot of uncertainty
"If we were ever going to skip an SEP, this would be a good one because we just don't know," Powell said during the FOMC press conference.
New Century Advisors chief economist Claudia Sahm argued on X that the baseline of forecasts should have been suspended due to lingering uncertainty about the war in Iran.
"Take it for what it is," said Esther George, former president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. "It is a very uncertain time, and the committee is not looking to, I think, put a stake in how they feel about the direction of the economy, certainly not as we’re looking at the situation in the Middle East right now."
- Myles Udland
Powell says will serve as Chair Pro Tempore if Warsh not confirmed by May, no decision yet on leaving Fed Board
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that he plans to serve as chair on a temporary basis if Kevin Warsh isn’t confirmed when his term expires in May.
That was in response to a question.
Anticipating questions that might follow on the various legal challenges facing the Fed and whether Powell will continue serving as a Board member through the end of his term in 2028, Powell said he won’t be leaving the board until those legal questions are resolved and that whether he’ll remain on the board is a decision he hasn’t made yet.
Powell, quoted at length:
- Grace O'Donnell
Powell: Tariffs, war pose dual shocks that have 'interrupted progress' on inflation
While the effects of the energy supply shock have been top of mind, Fed Chair Powell offered a reminder that the US is still working through tariff inflation as well.
"We’re well aware of the performance of inflation over the last few years and how a series of shocks have interrupted progress that we’ve made over time," Powell said.
"The thing that’s really important that we see this year is progress on inflation through a reduction in goods inflation as the one-time effects on prices of tariffs ... go through the economy," Powell said.
He added that the Fed won’t be able to look through energy-driven inflation as transitory until it has "checked that box" of containing tariff inflation.
- Jake Conley
Powell: Middle East war impact on the US economy is 'uncertain'
Taking a measured tone on the impacts of the conflict roiling the Middle East, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his prepared remarks, “The implications of developments in the Middle East on the US economy are uncertain.”
In the near term, energy prices will push up headline inflation, but it’s still "too soon to know the scope and duration of the potential effects on the economy," Powell said.
- Myles Udland
One more note on the Fed's economic forecasts...
The Fed's headline forecasts get most of the attention, but the SEP also reveals the range of projections offered by Fed officials.
Not surprisingly, the range of what officials deem the appropriate path for rates this year is wide — at least one Fed official thinks we need to see four cuts in 2026.
But what really stands out to us is the outlook for the labor market.
Given the slowdown we're seeing in hiring and the softness that appears to be spreading in some pockets of the white-collar workforce, that no Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to have a 5-handle this year is, frankly, a rosy outlook.
- Grace O'Donnell
Stocks tick down, Treasury yields rise after Fed decision
US equities ticked down slightly in the minutes after the Federal Reserve announced it would hold rates steady at a target range to 3.50%-3.75%.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) traded down by 0.6% on the session, while the blue chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lost 0.9%. The tech-exposed Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) lost 0.5%.
Yields on 10-year Treasurys (^TNX) ticked up as investors priced in higher rates for longer, picking up 2.4 basis points on the session. The yield on -year Treasurys (^FVX) picked up 3.9 basis points.
- Grace O'Donnell
Fed holds rates steady, as expected
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range on Wednesday at the conclusion of its March meeting. The decision was widely expected, as the Fed remains in wait-and-see