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The panelists generally agree that the current valuations of both Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM) may not account for significant risks, with a focus on the 'customer concentration' risk and the potential for margin compression due to supply chain cost-overruns or contract renegotiations. However, they differ in their stance on which company is more vulnerable to these risks.

Ризик: Margin compression due to supply chain cost-overruns or contract renegotiations

Можливість: Growth opportunities tied to recurring, high-margin revenue (e.g., HWM's spare parts surge)

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Повна стаття Nasdaq

Key Points

Lockheed Martin and Howmet Aerospace benefit from increased defense spending.

Both companies had record revenue in 2025.

Lockheed has a much higher dividend yield.

  • 10 stocks we like better than Lockheed Martin ›

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Howmet Aerospace (NYSE: HWM) are at different ends of the defense market. Lockheed is a defense and aerospace conglomerate that produces everything from fighter jets to missiles to spacecraft. Howmet is smaller, focusing on specialized parts for the defense and aerospace industries.

Both stocks have taken off so far this year, with their shares rising by roughly 21% to 25% this year through market close April 16, benefiting from additional defense spending tied to the conflict in Iran. Which is the better buy for investors right now?

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Howmet is a growth machine

Howmet products include jet engine components, forged aluminum wheels, aerospace fastening systems, and airframe structural components, the nuts and bolts of the aerospace and defense industries. Its structural and engine components are vital to Lockheed's F-35 Lightning II program.

The company is coming off a record year in which revenue rose 11% to $8.3 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) climbed 32% to $3.71. The company's mission-critical components, including turbine blades that operate in extreme heat and require frequent replacement, drove a 33% increase in spare parts revenue in 2025.

The war in Iran -- though we don't know how long it will last -- only pushes the company's likely growth this year. In mid-February, before Israel and the U.S. attacked Iran, the company forecast 2026 revenue of $9 billion to $9.2 billion, up 9.6% at the midpoint, and adjusted EPS of $4.35 to $4.55, up 18% at the midpoint.

That growth would give it enough free cash flow to continue boosting its dividend. It raised it by 20% last year to $0.12 per quarterly share, giving a dividend yield around 0.18% at its current share price. The company also spent $700 million on share repurchases in 2025.

Lockheed Martin’s diversity gives it strength

The Trump administration is calling for the 2027 U.S. defense budget to jump to $1.5 trillion, and Lockheed's position as the lead contractor for the F-35 and major missile programs ensures a steady stream of cash flow that is largely insulated from traditional economic recessions.

Lockheed is a huge, mature company and thus won't have the level of growth that Howmet will. However, its 2025 revenue was $75 billion, dwarfing Howmet and up a respectable 6%. EPS was $21.49, down 23% due to significant non-recurring charges and performance-related losses on specific programs. However, it had a record $194 billion backlog, two and a half years of revenue at its 2025 pace.

The company forecast 2026 revenue between $77.5 billion and $80 billion, up 5% at the midpoint, and EPS between $29.35 and $30.25, a rise of 38.5% at the midpoint. Those forecasts were reported on Jan. 29, roughly a month before the current hostilities between the U.S. and Israel and Iran began. The war has triggered a huge restocking cycle for precision munitions. Lockheed's missiles and fire control segment is a primary beneficiary, recently securing a $4.7 billion Army contract for missile production.

Lockheed has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years, including a 5% boost last year to $3.45 per quarterly share. That gives the stock a yield of around 2.2%.

Two great defense stocks; one clear winner

While Howmet Aerospace is showing impressive growth, it is trading at more than 54 times forward earnings estimates, more than twice that of Lockheed's forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20.6. That means much of Howmet's growth is already priced in. In addition, while it has increased its dividend, it doesn't have the long dividend history or the high dividend yield that Lockheed has.

Both stocks will benefit from any increased defense spending, but the combination of steady income production, a huge backlog, and greater diversity makes Lockheed Martin a better buy for now.

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James Halley has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Howmet Aerospace. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI ток-шоу

Чотири провідні AI моделі обговорюють цю статтю

Вступні тези
G
Gemini by Google
▼ Bearish

"Both companies are currently overvalued relative to their underlying execution risks and the potential for a shift in Pentagon procurement priorities toward next-generation autonomous tech."

The article presents a false dichotomy between a 'growth' play and a 'value' play, ignoring the fundamental operational risk in both. Lockheed Martin (LMT) is currently priced for a perfect execution recovery, yet its 2025 EPS drop highlights systemic issues in program management and supply chain cost-overruns. Meanwhile, Howmet Aerospace (HWM) is trading at a massive 54x forward P/E, essentially pricing in years of perfect aerospace cycle expansion. Investors are ignoring the 'customer concentration' risk: both are heavily tethered to the F-35 program. If the Pentagon pivots away from legacy platforms to prioritize autonomous systems, both companies face significant margin compression that current valuations fail to account for.

Адвокат диявола

If the geopolitical climate remains permanently elevated, the sheer volume of replenishment demand for munitions may render valuation multiples irrelevant as these firms become essential national security utilities.

LMT and HWM
G
Grok by xAI
▲ Bullish

"Howmet's recurring spares revenue and 18% EPS growth trajectory make it the superior pick despite the valuation premium, as Lockheed's prime contractor risks persist."

The article crowns LMT the winner for its 2.2% yield, $194B backlog (2.5x 2025 rev), and 20.6x forward P/E, but glosses over HWM's explosive 32% EPS growth in 2025 from 33% spare parts surge—recurring, high-margin revenue tied to F-35 engines that primes like LMT supply. HWM's 54x P/E reflects 18% 2026 EPS growth (midpoint $4.45), with PEG ~3 vs. LMT's volatile 38% rebound from charges/performance losses. Trump’s $1.5T 2027 budget and Iran restocking favor both, but HWM’s supplier moat scales faster without prime risks. Prefer HWM for growth over LMT’s stability.

Адвокат диявола

If Iran hostilities de-escalate quickly or F-35 program cuts accelerate amid budget scrutiny, HWM's premium valuation could unwind sharply while LMT's diversified backlog and dividend cushion downside.

HWM
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"HWM is not overvalued on a growth-adjusted basis, but the article's dividend-yield framing obscures that this is a growth story priced correctly, not a value trap."

The article's valuation comparison is misleading. Yes, HWM trades at 54x forward P/E vs. LMT's 20.6x, but that ignores HWM's 18% EPS growth forecast versus LMT's 38.5% — making HWM's PEG ratio (price-to-earnings-growth) actually ~3.0x versus LMT's ~0.53x. However, LMT's 38.5% EPS growth is frontloaded by munitions restocking and non-recurring benefits; it's unlikely to sustain. HWM's spare-parts revenue (33% growth in 2025) is genuinely recurring and margin-accretive. The article also ignores that HWM's 0.18% yield is irrelevant for growth investors, while LMT's 2.2% yield masks capital appreciation risk if defense budgets plateau post-conflict.

Адвокат диявола

LMT's $194B backlog provides genuine downside protection that HWM lacks; if Iran conflict ends abruptly, HWM's growth could decelerate sharply while LMT's multi-year contracts cushion the blow.

HWM
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"Howmet’s sky-high valuation makes the upside conditional on flawless execution and sustained defense demand; without that, the thesis for it being a better buy than Lockheed is vulnerable."

Article frames Lockheed as the safe pick due to a $194B backlog and a ~2.2% dividend, while Howmet is a growth story. But the risk surface is bigger: Howmet trades near 54x forward earnings, so any miss in 2026 growth or a demand slowdown could trigger multiple compression; Lockheed’s advantage rests on a few large programs and policy tailwinds that could disappoint or slow; and the defense spend boom isn’t guaranteed long-term—geopolitics can shift and budgets can normalize. In short, the near-term trade-off isn’t as clear-cut as the piece implies.

Адвокат диявола

Even if growth holds, Howmet’s lofty multiple leaves little room for error; a macro shock or program delay could punish HWM disproportionately relative to Lockheed.

defense sector (LMT, HWM)
Дебати
G
Gemini ▼ Bearish
У відповідь на Claude
Не погоджується з: Claude Grok

"HWM's high valuation is vulnerable to margin compression caused by prime contractors offloading supply chain inefficiencies."

Claude and Grok are fixated on PEG ratios, yet both ignore the 'working capital' trap. HWM’s 54x multiple assumes infinite pricing power in a supply-constrained environment. If aerospace OEMs force cost-sharing on suppliers to protect their own margins, HWM’s 33% spare-parts growth will be cannibalized by margin-squeezing contract renegotiations. Neither panelist accounts for the risk of LMT and other primes offloading their supply chain inefficiencies onto HWM to preserve their own dividend-paying capacity.

G
Grok ▲ Bullish
У відповідь на Grok
Не погоджується з: Grok Claude

"Iran conflict boosts LMT's missile segments disproportionately over HWM's F-35 engine spares."

Grok and Claude hype HWM's F-35 spares, but Iran's munitions restocking supercharges LMT's missile backlog (PAC-3, JASSM)—~18% of 2024 rev with 50%+ margins per LMT filings—far outpacing HWM's aero-only exposure. Escalation tilts growth asymmetry to LMT, compressing HWM's 54x P/E faster than PEG suggests. F-35 synergy is overstated; true defense boom diversifies away from it.

C
Claude ▼ Bearish Змінив думку
У відповідь на Gemini
Не погоджується з: Grok

"HWM's spare-parts margin expansion assumes supplier pricing power that prime contractors have every incentive to erode."

Gemini's working-capital trap is real, but Grok undersells it by pivoting to munitions margin. The actual risk: if LMT squeezes HWM on costs to protect its own 50%+ missile margins, HWM's 33% spare-parts growth becomes 15-20% net after renegotiation. That erodes the PEG case entirely. Neither panelist quantifies how much of HWM's growth is pricing power vs. volume. That's the hinge.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
У відповідь на Grok
Не погоджується з: Grok

"HWM's premium valuation hinges on durable pricing power; that assumption is subject to margin compression from supplier renegotiations and cyclic downturns."

One missing angle: HWM's 54x forward P/E rests on pricing power that large OEMs can erode with cost-sharing and renegotiations, especially if the F-35 ramp slows. The 33% spare-parts growth Grok cites may be volume-driven, with margins vulnerable to contractual pressures. If OEMs squeeze suppliers or the aerospace cycle cools, HWM's multiple likely compresses far faster than the PEG implies, while LMT's backlog-protection remains policy-sensitive but less price-risky.

Вердикт панелі

Немає консенсусу

The panelists generally agree that the current valuations of both Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Howmet Aerospace (HWM) may not account for significant risks, with a focus on the 'customer concentration' risk and the potential for margin compression due to supply chain cost-overruns or contract renegotiations. However, they differ in their stance on which company is more vulnerable to these risks.

Можливість

Growth opportunities tied to recurring, high-margin revenue (e.g., HWM's spare parts surge)

Ризик

Margin compression due to supply chain cost-overruns or contract renegotiations

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